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One way to get Edmans stolen bases at leadoff is vs lhp’s, where Edman has posted a 123 ops+ for his career. He has accumulated a seasons worth of PA’s vs lefties so it’s a legit sample. His obp isn’t impressive vs lefties but he has slugged .498, which is. Now add on his SB’s when he walks or singles.
Oli is correctly already doing this with Edman, and if Donovan were available, they make a natural platoon.
Then you have more righty bats remaining than lefties, so Goldy 2nd helps the stagger.
If he uses Noot second, you only have Gorman and one of Donovan / Edman to break up Goldy, Arenado, Contreras, O’Neill and Walker. Goldy’s obp and SLG make it an easy decision among righties who should bat 2nd.
My bad not also mentioning homegrown Matt Carpenter at leadoff. A 122 ops+ for his career as a Cardinal, which includes his decline years.
It was mentioned earlier in the thread of the possible ressurection of the running game. With the new rules limiting the number of times a pitcher can throw over or even step off and check on a baserunner, I’m astounded that Acuna leads the Big Leagues with only 63 SB’s. Teams should be running wide open full throttle. Brock or Coleman would have 100 SB’s and Rickey would have had 150 by the break…When those guys played a pitcher threw over more times than you could count to not only catch a baserunner leaning, but also to wear down his stamina by requiring him to dive back to the safety of the 1B bag 8 to 10 times while getting smacked with a 1B mitt in the process. Sometimes right in the mug… It doesn’t make sense to me that teams aren’t running practically every time anyone with even marginal running speed reaches base. Especially in the first 3 or 4 innings. The basepaths should be taking on the look of Indy after the final pace lap.
Edman is certainly making a case for an everyday in the lineup job next year. I would like to see him with an everyday position as well. See how that looks. I can’t help but hope he is somehow the starting CF as of opening day. Whether he could hold it all year is another question, which I hope we find out the answer to.
I also can’t help but wonder if Donovan picked a bad time to be out of sight, out of mind.
Of course, Eddie should be an everyday starter next year…it is laughable to suggest otherwise. IMO he should be the starting SS but if has to start in CF so be it.
His PA’s are substantially down this season primarily due to some down time on the IL, but he led the team in PA’s in ’21 and was second only to Golschmidt in ’22. I’d have to guess that as long as he’s still a Cardinal, he’ll be what’s considered an everyday player in ’24, but I expect him to be shuffled around to different defensive positions in both the IF and OF. I’d also have to say that he may be the only guy on this roster where that sort of tactic doesn’t erode the integrity of the defence. I get nervous when they move other guys around, but not so much with Edman. I don’t like that sort of approach, but I’m guessing that’ll be the reality.
Edman always goes where he’s needed, so it may be about who is available and where we are weakest.
If Winn needs demoted by opening day, Edman is the SS. If Carlson has been traded, or O’Neill is IL again, Edman is our CF’r.
So far this season Edman has started 26 games at 2B, 44 games at SS, 32 in CF and 6 in RF. He’ s the glue that holds this roster together defensively.
The middle IF from opening day going forward should have been Donovan at 2B with Edman at SS. They should have been fixtures at both of those respective positions all season long. They not only wasted time and insulted everyone’s intelligence with DeJong and Manny Motter, but also took on the look of some sort of odd circus type farce. I’m not even too comfortable with Gorman at 2B. And if Winn doesn’t work out for the first 35 to 40 games next season, it’s my view that Edman and Donovan should play everyday as the middle IF defense. No exceptions.
It may not be too much longer before a baseball card only lists the player’s position next to the photos of pitchers and catchers. Everyone else will be listed as “Misc.”
Last winter, Donovan was one of the guys Oakland wanted for Murphy. I wonder if that would be Edman instead if it were this winter.
I think maybe not, because Donovan was looking like a prototype leadoff hitter by the end of 2022. .394 OBP and no platoon split. An everyday leadoff. Only lacking the SB aspect, which is less of a thing in today’s game. Edman’s low OBP would rule him out of that role in a well structured lineup. He’s also sporting a significant platoon split. OPS ve RHP .692, vs LHP .801. That would be kind of a hard sell for everyday leadoff. In a properly constructed lineup, I mean. OlliMo might have the cleaning lady batting leadoff.
No one will ever convince me that the primary consideration for a lead-off hitter is his OBP. A lead-off hitter also has to have the ability to move up a base or two. Edman possesses more ability to do that than any other Cardinal in the last four seasons. A baserunner coming around to score from 1B is more the exception than the rule.
I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this topic and what I believe the Cardinals will do and why. I don’t have space to write nearly all my thoughts so I’ll be brief so I can get to the point. I think a lot of the issue this year was psychological. Players who are every day players couldn’t play every day and they never knew when they were going to play so the pressure was on when they did play to do something or they’d be sitting again. I like depth. But I think it worked against us for this reason. Guys need to genuinely be in a good role for them. And it needs to make sense. This season, it didn’t. Not for our outfield or our catchers specifically. And for that reason, we have to trade away both O’Neill and Carlson. And I hate myself for saying that because I am one of the biggest believers in Carlson’s future potential. But we need to play Noot and Walker every day. And, . . . Tommy Edman absolutely needs to be our CF all of next season. We need his elite defense out there. It is game changing. And he no longer really has a firm position on the infield. And that’s a good thing.
So we are trading Carlson and O’Neill and a minor league pitcher not named Roby or Rajcic or Graceffo (yes, I’m ok with including Hence if another team values him enough)for the best pre-arb or first year arb starting pitcher we can get. Then, we will sign one of the 2 elite Japanese pitchers for a whole lot of reasons. And finally, we will sign a 1 year deal for a decent veteran starter. I think they are also going to sign 2-3 mid level bullpen guys just to see what sticks as those guys are almost all up and down. And finally, we’re signing a veteran SS to a one year deal as insurance for Wynn in case he doesn’t hit. So, the team will look like this:
1B: Goldschmidt
2B: Gorman
SS: Wynn
3B: Arenado
LF: Nootbaar
CF: Edman
RF: Walker
C: Contreras/Herrera 50/50 split (Knizner gone)
DH: Contreras/Burleson/DonovanBench: Donovan, Burleson, Herrera, Siani, Vet SS
Donovan is the super sub everywhere providing days off and he also starts at 2B against some lefties. Burleson is mostly just a DH or PH with a few scheduled starts at 1B and a very few as a corner outfielder Siani is only there as a defensive replacement or a PR or as an emergency injury replacement. It’s perfect for him and why picking him up on waivers makes so much sense. The Vet SS ideally just starts 20 games at SS and that’s it. But he gets more if Wynn struggles to hit.
SP 1: 1 of the Japanese pitchers
SP 2: Young stud who we get in a trade
SP 3: Mikolas
SP 4: 1 year Vet
SP 5: Matz
SP 6: Hudson if he isn’t traded
SP 7-9: Liberatore, Rom, Graceffo, McGreevey, Robberse, KloffensteinBP 1: Helsley
BP 2: Gallegos
BP 3: Thompson
BP 4: Romero
BP 5: Woodford (long relief)
BP 6-8: 2-3 signed vets, Wilking Rodriguez, Pallante, Naughton, Zuniga, King, Thomas, or any of the above starters – just whoever is hotAntico/Scott/Gomez/Koperniak as AAA outfielders
Baker/Dunn/Fermin/Prieto/Saggese as AAA infielders
Pages as 3rd C at AAAI’m convinced that this is exactly what will happen this offseason. The only other alternative that I could really see happening is that they sign an additional big name starter in place of that 1-year veteran contract I have above and that they then consider moving Matz to the bullpen and replace him with Hudson if he falters at all because I don’t think anyone is convinced Matz can stay healthy over a season as a starter. I would like this move better for the right contract.
There you have it. That’s the roadmap the Cards are going to follow. At least I’m convinced anyway.
It’s pretty simple to me…If this were a beauty contest and the contestants were Marilyn Monroe, Ann Margret, Princess Grace of Monaco and Audrey Hepburn, they would be a team of second rate contestants if they were handled by the current Cardinal manager…
Appreciate your effort Jnevel. I don’t know the Japanese pitchers. Getting a “young stud” for Carlson, O’Neill and Hence is questionable. I don’t know Hence value, maybe you are right. I do know one season of often injured O’Neill has little value to me. For 6mil next season I’d Non-tender him. 3 future seasons of underperforming Carlson limits his value to “potential”, as a sell low trade candidate. Hence needs to carry the trade, so we’re swapping similar pitchers? Or we underpaid.
1) the Japanese SP1 needs to be an ace.
2) a young stud SP2 will require one of Gorman, Walker; or two of Edman, Donovan, Noot.
3) hard to evaluate the rotation when 3 starters are unknown.JJ – I agree O’Neill doesn’t have a lot of value so he’s not necessarily included in this trade – perhaps another for a minor leaguer. But I don’t think he’s underwater and non-tendered. I do think Carlson + Hence plus a throw in solid minor leaguer gets us someone good who is around Arb 1. Worst case Arb 2 where we only get 2 years. But I could be wrong. Obviously Mo has to find the right partner.
I’m talking about Yamamoto and Imanga as the 2 Japanese pitchers. Yamamoto being plan A but if the bidding gets too crazy, I think the Cards would be happy with Imanga as plan B.
When is the last time a decent veteran starter signed a one year contract? Can you give an example of a recent one, so we get idea of the kind of pitcher you are talking about.
I spent the early part of the season preaching about the value of stability in defensive position assignment and stability in batting order position, but didn’t get any traction. For what its worth, I too hope the players will have some stability next year, and settle in to regular roles. Maybe Mo will have that in mind this winter, and maybe the questions will be decided by opening day. Having everybody show up for work in ST will be a help.
Bling – last year it was guys like Kyle Gibson, Mike Cleavenger, Michael Lorenzen, Rich Hill, Zach Davies, and Wade Miley to give some examples. Nothing super exciting, but it’s the #3 of the 3 we are signing in this scenario.
I’d prefer to get another elite pitcher, obviously.
I guess with O’Neill I wind up asking myself if I prefer him or the 6mil salary relief. His impact is minimal so I tend to prefer 45mil available vs 39mil with him, and you have the outfield covered.
I think jnevel has nailed it. I agree with almost everything he stated except maybe the veteran SS. If Winn doesn’t stick they can play Edman there and someone else at CF, like Noot.
The one guy I wish we would sign, and have stated this several years in a row, is Adam Duvall. Almost every year some team signs him to a cheap one year deal and all he does is hit. He wouldn’t cost much more than we gave Dickerson last year but would be much more productive. He would be a valuable asset if we move O’Neill and Carlson, which I agree we will do.
I was just reading about how bad the Nats are getting reamed on that big contract they gave Strasburg at age 31. BDW is probably reading about it too.
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