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While Nola would be an improvement to the 5 man
People are forgetting that this year’s rotation included Montgomery. Nola would be approximately a breakeven replacement for Montgomery, so I disagree that “Nola would be an improvement to the 5 man”.
Adding a Nola would get us back to basically the same rotation we had this year, which sucked as we all know.
I am not suggesting Nola alone would be enough to fix the Cardinals’ ills, but asserting he is equivalent to Montgomery is conveniently glossing over the facts, as some tend to do.
Monty’s best year (2018): 3.3 bWAR
Nola’s best year (2018): 9.7 bWARCareer WAR
Monty 11 in seven years
Nola 31.6 in nine yearsNola has third, fourth and seventh place finishes in the Cy Young balloting and has been an All-Star. Monty is still hoping for all that.
But, sure, they are essentially the same guy…
I agree we could dig down through the layers to uncover fossil evidence of performance from 5 years ago. But more to the point is now. Monty 3.46, Nola 4.55.
Nola has had a better history. Now though, I call them essentially equall. It could not be considered surprising if either does a little better than the other next season.
C’mon, man, you are cherry picking stats. I will be surprised if their upcoming free agent contracts will be close to similar. But the market will be the ultimate judge. What teams are willing to pay them in money and years will be the true measure of their future value.
P.S. Monty is about six months older than Nola. Both are currently 30.
Following your logic, the Cards would be better served to re-sign Monty than go after Nola. Same guy but likely much cheaper. My bet if that happened, 99% of the fan base would disagree.
Hudson, Thompson, Liberatore, and Woodford all have major league experience now. Hudson, Thompson, and Woodford have figured out (somewhat) how to get out major league hitters. Liberatore needs to learn. Tracking Roby. He could be a really good one.
MLB Trade Rumors suggests Nola is in line for 5-6 years approaching or beating Carlos Rondon’s $162 MM if not for home run concerns. They say Monty could reach nine figures with a strong finish to 2023 and should be able to get five years. Again, the market will speak.
blingboy
I agree we could dig down through the layers to uncover fossil evidence of performance from 5 years ago. But more to the point is now. Monty 3.46, Nola 4.55.
Nola has had a better history. Now though, I call them essentially equal. It could not be considered surprising if either does a little better than the other next season.
I guess by that line of thinking, Matz is pretty good. We also need only 1 new SP for next year based on that thinking. Matz 3.86, Hudson 4.02, Thompson 3.91. We know Mikolas has 1 spot.
The first step is to wipe the slate clean of guys like Naile, Lawrence, Barnes, Leahy, Suarez, and VerHagen.
And not bring in any more like them.Not sure if the Cards were interested in Urias, but this may take him off their radar:
Breaking: Julio Urias just became awfully affordable.
Ozuna is still playing, so don’t say he’s out of the league 😂😂😂 #stlcards https://t.co/pdqkYXY8di
— Cardinals Live (@Cardinals_Live) September 4, 2023
If I were the Cardinals I would not go into 2024 expecting any of Hudson, Liberatore, Thompson, and Woodford to be in the rotation. Heck they don’t even consider Woodford good enough to be on the STL roster right now, even though we have one of the worst teams in the league. I know that Hudson and Thompson have had some quality starts recently, which is good, but it is hardly enough of a track record to be penciled into the rotation next year, assuming that we want to contend. Those aforementioned guys should be competing for slots 6-10 as depth pieces.
We have tried the “hope and a prayer” strategy enough years in a row with the pitching. It is time for more certainty.
I’d say Hudson not only has a decent chance, but also a more than decent track record that can’t be ignored. His career line reads a W/L consisting of 37-18. That’s a .673 pct. along with a career 3.66 ERA and is certainly nothing to sneeze at. He’s also performed a bit shy of 450 innings worth of work which is well beyond the combined career workload of all of the three other names mentioned. My guess is that Hudson is a component of the 5 man on opening day of next season. I still like him more than either Matz or Mikolas.
I like Hudson. He had a very good year in 2019 but has been between average and non-existent since then. He is certainly worthy of an opportunity in 2024 but I would write his name in pencil instead of pen.
The only reason Hudsons FIP isn’t the worst on the staff for this season, is Wainwright. Same for worst K per 9.
Mo has stated they want to increase the staffs K%. Thompson has double the K% this season, vs Hudson, and the same BB%.
Pallante is Hudson, without the arb contract. On a contender, Thompson makes the pen; Woodford, Pallante and Hudson don’t, until injuries force them up.
As I mentioned above, Dakota Hudson is 37-18 in the first 55 decisions of his career for what I’d have to say is a pretty nice W/L pct. of .673… Obviously I’m cherry picking here, but this is too good to omit. An interesting fact is that another SP’er who has put together a pretty nice career was at one time 29-26 in the first 55 decisions of his career for a not too unusual W/L pct. of .527…His name is Clayton Kershaw…Haha!
Yes, run support is very important to W/L, for those very few who consider W/L an individual metric.
O’Neill and Hudson remind me of Flaherty. One career year, four or 5 seasons ago, and often injured/mediocre since.
To avoid continued mistakes made, I’d non-tender both Hudson and O’Neill, reclaim an estimated 9mil, and move forward with different players.
Yeah, I’d have to say that the only solitary number that’s more important than runs scored is W/L pct.
I guess by that line of thinking, Matz is pretty good. We also need only 1 new SP for next year based on that thinking. Matz 3.86, Hudson 4.02, Thompson 3.91. We know Mikolas has 1 spot.
You guys start out knowing what you want the answer to be and then figure out how to get there.
I am talking about current performance as starting pitchers in a rotation. A guy with 7 starts this year (Hudson) or 5 (Thompson) are not relevant to the conversation. Matz hasn’t even been a starter all year, and the only reason his ERA is under 4 is because it was under 3 when he worked out of the pen. He has also been unreliable as far as both health and performance, unlike Monty and Nola. So none of those guys has any relevance to my point.
I will try to restate my position not using any big words. Monty had a better year than Nola, but Nola has a better history. So I call them equal. Furthermore, since Monty had a better year this year, it should not surprise anyone if he has a better year next year.
Yep, I agree 1td, on a team level. Trying to apply team results to an individual is an abuse of the numbers.
5 IP, 4 ER allowed and a game score of 37 shouldn’t be W, but it was for Woodford, due to the lineup scoring 14 runs. Just one example of dozens.
The teams W/L record is paramount. W/L for a starter is a poor evaluator.
Actually, if you subtract Waino the starters have been pretty good lately. We need an ace, and another starter. But the bullpen needs seriously upgraded. Montgomery and Yamamoto would be my targets. And I would scout the relief market.
I would not dismiss Thompsons chances. He has twice the stuff of Steele.
To summarize, you ignore the significant difference in their comparative market value and ignore the huge difference in their career results, all because of the current year. One data point is all you have to hang your hat on. Others have already pointed out the folly of making a one year comparison. But of course you have the right to make your 2024 prediction.
However, teams will look at the value to be returned over the life of the contract, not just 2024. That is why the 31 WAR guy will get paid more and probably for more years than the 11 WAR guy who is having a better 2023.
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