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What to do? The situation is starting to get pretty complicated now, with
Hudson, Liberatore, Thompson, Woodford, Kloffenstein, Rom, Roby, McGreevy, Graceffo, and Robberse all vying for some starts in 2024. Will Mo back off on the statement he made about needing 3 starters? Maybe only go for a top guy like Nola?bccran, you have asked this before, but I don’t see the situation having changed.
How many of those guys are proven MLB pitchers? They all have minor league options and can provide much needed depth over the long 2024 season. But they are not nearly enough. Having a bunch of back-end rotation guys will not yield a division title, let alone take them deep into the playoffs. Quantity does not equal quality.
I really doubt the Cards will back off from their stated plan. Every one of those pitchers was already in the organization when Mo made his comments. IMO, none of them have done enough since to lock down a rotation spot next year.
Hudson and Thompson have been impressive lately at the major league level. Woodford has been hurt, but has major league experience. His MLB ERA in 2022 when healthy was 2.23, albeit mostly in the bullpen.
Would it be a disaster to go with Nola, Mikolas, Matz, Hudson, and Thompson, with the others backing them up?
It would be a disaster. Nola would be solid. Mikolos is 35 and showing it. The others have already proven to be unreliable as to both health and performance. Basically, its last year plus Nola and minus Montgomery. How does that equal anything good?
Desperately seeking a #1 and the younger the better. There could be a #2 among the pitchers that bccran mentioned. We won’t know that until the end of spring training so we need to go into spring training with a #1 in place. Whoever else Mozeliak decides to bring aboard can only be a plus. Additionally, its always prudent to be prepared for an injury or two.
You have to remember that there is several teams looking for top-notch pitchers. We may have to take what we can get. I just hope that BDW remembers how bad ’23 has been and will decide to pony up. There’s a lot riding on this “transformation”.
This spring, he received an extension through 2025 and I have heard nothing to suggest his position has eroded.
When you say ‘I have heard nothing to suggest his position has eroded’, what would you expect to have heard if it had eroded? I think again the answer would be nothing, so it is not indicative.
And we do need to remember that this season happened since then.
I don’t know how anybody can be advocating for just one external pitcher to join the rotation given the dumpster fire we have had this year.
bccran, as you’ve probed this before, maybe it would help us understand better if you please articulate your worry.
Is it DeWitt spending money?
Is it blocking the laundry list of pitchers you cited?
Is it that you think they will make trade and free agent mistakes?
Is it that you would rather they focus more on improving the offense?
Is it that you don’t want favorite players traded?
What is it?If 2023 showed anything, it is that despite supposedly having a set veteran rotation, unexpected opportunity arises all season long. The problem this year was that no one was ready to step up.
I don’t get why you seem so eager to let the Cardinals off the hook.
bb said:
When you say ‘I have heard nothing to suggest his position has eroded’, what would you expect to have heard if it had eroded? I think again the answer would be nothing, so it is not indicative.
Bling, I do this for a living. I speak to people in and around the organization frequently, most of which is never posted. I didn’t just pull it out of a hat. But of course I am not 100% sure about anything in the future, hence the 2% comment.
It is going to be a long offseason if folks are expecting Mo to be fired. He has way too much good will banked over a long period of time. Another year with no improvement might lead to a different conclusion.
I would assign a higher probability. Maybe in the 10-20% range. So I don’t think it will happen either, but would be less surprised if it did. I do think it will happen immediatly after the season if it were to happen, so the issue will be put to rest right off the bat.
I’m not sure its a ‘people in and around the orgnization’ situation like it would have been during the Luhnow-Jockety clash of ideologies. This time everyone is in Mo’s camp. He has made sure of that. If there were an erosion of Mo’s position in BDW’s eyes, who in and around the organization would be in a position to know? I think the answer is nobody, other than BDW3, and you can bet he wouldn’t be letting on to Mo’s people.
Would it be a disaster to go with Nola, Mikolas, Matz, Hudson, and Thompson, with the others backing them up?
Yes it would be an epic disaster. This team is about to finish in last place for the first time in 33 years. We can’t have another timid offseason. If the plan is to only bring in one starting pitcher from the outside then good luck selling season tickets.
Besides this season on the diamond, another aspect of what has happened since last spring was mentioned in a Bernie article on the Scoops site a couple weeks ago.
“Between April and June of 2022, sales and use tax collected for the zip code of 63102 totaled around $157 million. This season, less than $89 million was reported during the same time frame.”
So that amounts to a 45% drop in sales tax revenue in the area immediatly around Busch, including concessions at Busch, and sales at Ballpark villiage establishments. That would mean sales revenue would have fallen by a comparable amount. And that was through June. I doubt July and August were any better, and may have been worse. I think that generally, businesses get worried about any dropoff in sales, so 45% would be monsterous, and that happened since last spring.
I guess I’m somewhat influenced by the Alcantara and Gallen trade. And I wonder if Bill and Mo are too. I’m just not a fan of paying guys $20-30 million for 5 years or more when we don’t know that much about them. We learned our lesson with the Leake signing. On the other hand, I’m all for trading for guys with low budget teams who are going to get expensive.
Bring them in and extend them if they perform here.It will probably be a combination of avenues instead of an either/or situation. Sign one high level free agent starter, trade for one or two cheapish young starters with high potential, then do the same with the bullpen.
We may have learned our lesson with the Leake signing but hopefully we have also learned something by having our worst season in 33 years.
We learned our lesson with the Leake signing.
Leake had never been more than a #5 starter when he was signed. I don’t know how he could be a disappointment other than the organization gave way too much time and money to a #5 starter.
I guess I’m somewhat influenced by the Alcantara and Gallen trade. On the other hand, I’m all for trading for guys with low budget teams who are going to get expensive.
That trade was with a low budget team for a guy who was about to get expensive. He was also injured.
It seems to me that – for three of their starting pitchers – the Cards are going to count on Mikolas and Matz plus one of the other in house options; with Hudson or Thompson leading that charge at the moment.
That’s not what has been publicly said but I can see it happening.
Mo may still go get three starters in the off season but pitchers seem to drop like flies these days.
All three acquisitions need to better than anyone currently on staff if the Cardinals are serious about flipping the standings in 2024.
Feels like we need to have 8 – 9 starters to get through a season…
Mo said three starters but nothing about quality. It can be inferred that meant a significant upgrade over what we would otherwise have for next year. That doesn’t necessarily mean 3 guys who will be a lock for the 2024 rotation. My guess is two will be virtual locks, either because they are that good, or because of their cost in payroll or trade goods or both. I’m thinking the third guy may be a strong contender for the rotation, who we will end up seeing due to attrition.
A problem I see is the rotation depth at AAA. We already know what the laundry list guys bring. Nothing says a couple top guys Mo brings in will make 30 starts apiece. Truthfully, I don’t have a lot of confidence in Mo and the gang pulling this off. There is a lot wrong and a lot that has to go right, and the people who got us into this mess are going to be trying to get us out of it.
Many people still don’t understand Mospeak. He said he needed 3 starters but he didn’t say they’d come from the outside. He could use Hudson and Thompson maybe add an outsider and he has his 3 starters. Just like last year when he said they would raise the payroll. Of course, the payroll went up (A minute amount) for raises and arbitration so Mo could say see, we raised the payroll. Same thing this year with I need 3 starters. People need to know who is talking and not believe a word he says.
I agree with that sentiment Nate but this situation is different than years past because we are about to finish in last place for the first time in 33 years. In years past Mo and the Cardinals could nibble around the edges but still have an 85-90 win team that would draw 3 million fans and mucho $$. That is not going to be the case in 2024. I expect season ticket sales to drop considerably for next year unless the Cardinals have an aggressive winter. Hitting them in the pocketbook is the only thing that will get their attention.
Hudson and Thompson sure are starting to look good. And McGreevy was awesome yesterday fur Memphis. Hmmm.
A starting rotation of
Nola
Mikolas
Matz
Hudson
Thompson
Would be a total disaster IMO
We would be looking at a repeat of 2023
Nola would provide a few more wins but the rest would not make up a quality starting 5
If they come out with that starting 5 in 2024 Mo might make it through this off season but won’t make it through the next!While Nola would be an improvement to the 5 man, that improvement would probably be offset with Mikolas sliding down a notch or two in the pecking order due to age which has become somewhat apparent this season. So, I’d say you’re right. We’re then left with Matz, Hudson and Thompson and out of those three arms, I’d say Hudson’s the best SP’er. Nothing to get too worked up about.
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