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Could Mo pry away both Mayo and Kjerstad from the Orioles for Helsley? If so, that would open up some trade options for needed future starting pitching.
Helsley has one year of team control left after this season. That will affect the take.
Trading him also means we don’t have a ninth inning guy. Closer is not an area of excess, so trading opens a hole.
Could Mo pry away both Mayo and Kjerstad from the Orioles for Helsley?
Helsey has good trade value, but no way we get both. They are both top 30 prospects in baseball and they wouldn’t trade both for someone even as valuable as Luis Robert.
I see them valuing Mayo more internally, but even getting Kjerstad out of Helsey will be difficult. We may have to include some other player to tack on a little more value.
We still have to figure out if they are buyers or sellers. If they are buyers, listen to what Mo said. #5 sp, #4 right hand centerfielder. So a dumpster dive. Remember, these days Mo never overwhelms. Don’t get exited about any add at the trade deadline.
If you had two top 25 prospects in all of baseball, would you trade even one of them and his six years of control for a year and a third of Helsley?
The Orioles already have Kimbrel, who has converted 16 of 19 saves, has a 13 K/9 rate (higher than Helsley), a .157 BAA (lower than Helsley) and also a lower ERA and WHIP than Helsley, so this does not seem a pressing need for them to overpay for any closer.
The Cardinals are saying they are buyers, so I will assume that is the case until they say (via actions or words) that they are not. Folks need to remember that they still have a lot of tickets to sell for this summer and fall. Waving the white flag isn’t the way to get there. The playoff structure that allows mediocre teams to reach as wild cards is a major encouragement.
Helsley is definitely not going to fetch 2 top 25 prospects. But he certainly could net a top 100 prospect plus some other additional solid prospect. Maybe even a little better than that.
I doubt the Cardinals waive the white flag and trade anyone away who is on the MLB roster unless they get back to around 10 games under .500. They’ll probably be soft buyers as stated above. But unless they buy the precise combination of players we need like back in 2011 when they picked up Dotel and Rzepcynski, I don’t think they are giving themselves much of a chance. I’d almost rather they buy no one because I don’t see how one minor addition helps this team much.
Folks need to remember that they still have a lot of tickets to sell for this summer and fall.
I don’t think claiming to be buyers is going to sell any tickets.
The Cardinals are going to have to go on a run to convince people to buy tickets.
If they are a sub .500 team at the deadline, they should be sellers.
I don’t think they should trade Helsley, because that opens up a major hole in the bullpen next year.
Helsley for Kjerstad might be doable. I would do it immediately if I were the Cardinals but I don’t know if the Orioles would. Would be worth an ask.
I think we all know that it would be in the long term interest of the Cardinals if they were sellers again this year but I also believe there is only about a 10% chance it happens. As Brian mentioned they are not going to wave the white flag unless they completely tank. They do not want to see and empty Busch in August and September. They have revene to generate.
And how could the Cardinals not be within striking distance of the 6th playoff spot? It is lmost mathematically impossible considering how weak 2/3 of the NL is. I honestly believe that 82 wins will get you in the playffs this year.
Now if the Cardinals went on some kind of streak where they lost 12 out of 15 or something like that in the next month then perhaps thatwould push them into seller mode. In that scenario they could realisitcally move:
Goldy
Herrera
Carlson
Gibson
Lynn
Kitty
HelsleyI don’t put Arenado in that category because they would have to eat too much money.
Now if they end up being buyers I would not expect them to go crazy with big purchases but I think they could realistically target:
Quintana
Fedde
Luzardo
Tyler AndersonPham
Pillar
JD MartinezIn a typical year, the Cardinals have sold 80% of their tickets before the season started.
In a year with this kind of fan apathy, how many extra seats are going to be filled by doing the irrational thing and pretending to be chasing a title?
How much extra revenue will they generate next year by filling a more competitive roster by acquiring some prospects that can help next year’s team?
You trade a few hundred thousand dollars for your one playoff series, versus several extra million dollars in revenue next year if you have a better team.
Plus, you save money on the salaries you trade away, which probably outweighs the additional revenue of their likely one-and-done playoff lives.
The Cardinals are delusional enough to believe that if they can sneak into the playoffs they will win the WS. They think every year is 2006.
The Cardinals are delusional enough to believe that if they can sneak into the playoffs they will win the WS.
Agree.
That’s why I am hoping they either go on a run and make a compelling case, or are five games under .500 at the deadline.
LACF, do you recall where you saw that 80% of tickets are sold before the season? That is surprisingly high to me.
Also, FWIW, even if tickets are sold, the team loses concession revenue if the buyers stay home.
Katie Woo article covering media address by BDWJr and BDWIII back in January says “[h]istorically, the club has sold about 70-80% of their annual tickets before Opening Day.”
I doubt they’ve done that good the last few seasons, but at one time in the not too distant past they were at or near that 80% mark prior to opening day for several seasons in succession.
Hi Brian, yes, it was the interview with BDW III – and it was 70%
Do they lose that much concession revenue? Many teams have contracted that out to a 3rd party haven’t they?
We found that the average MLB fan spends $74.40 on concessions for themselves and everyone else in their party combined when they attend a game.
Now ballpark prices are much higher than bar or restaurant prices. Average bar marks up cost 300%. Sporting events are probably double that.
If the Cardinals are down 500,000 fans at the ballpark, that would translate into approximately $37.5 million in revenue and at least $24 million in gross profit.
Without commenting on the accuracy of the estimate, note that the $74.40 average spend covers “themselves and everyone else in their party combined.” I don’t know what the right average multiplier is for a party, but for a family of four, that would be about $19-20 per head/ticket. Apply that to the 500K ticket delta, and you’re looking at something more along the lines of $9-10mm of lost concessions revenue. Or maybe $12mm if you use closer to a 3.0 multiplier.
As they say empty seats don’t buy hotdogs. Of course from what I have seen most of those suites and buffets they have aren’t serving hotdogs. I’m sure the prime rib is pricey.
Good catch RBK. So, they usually use “family of four” when figuring these things, so yes, reduce each number by 1/4.
The 500,000 number is purely for illustrative purposes. There have been many games where the announced attendance was 30,000+, and commenters on here have estimated the actual crowd to be in the 10-15,000 range.
Also, depending on the ballpark, parking can be a pretty big line item because the gross margins are so high on that revenue stream.
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