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“hard decisions and short-term sacrifices” is CB’s stated game plan.
Slogans mean little without details because they can mean different things to different people.
@Game Card,
The Cardinals are in rebuild mode. If they indeed find a suitor for Sonny Gray, they only have McGreevey, Pallante, and Liberatore. The cupboard is bare. It’s going to take at least 3 years, maybe even 4 years for this team to be competitive. Bloom has his work cut out for him.
To be clear I have no interest in the Cardinals being a perpetual 85 win team in search of the 6th and final playoff spot. Not at all. I was just talking about a way to buy some time until the farm system can start producing impact players and our big contracts are off the books, which is about two years a way. I think doing a complete tank job is very risky business.
I am also aware that Bloom and the Cardinals are most likely to tear it down further than I would prefer. I read the papers too. I was just making conversation since we really don’t have much else meaningful to discuss until late March.
I agree with gscottar that it’s possible to be semi competitive and get build for the future. One or two year, lower dollar deals for guys that might pop won’t break the bank or hinder the future development. Anyone who thinks that the Cards actually need to run a sub $100M payroll to build for the future is just doing BDW’s bidding. Trading away all the vets and starting from nothing will do nothing to accelerate the rebuild, but it will fatten Dewitt’s wallet.
I’ll add that the Cards have long been averse to the type of deals that championship teams make regularly. There was one off-season where they looked primed to sign David Price and/or Jason Heyward, but other than that they’ve sat on the sidelines. Sign 1-2 year guys or sign stars, which seems to be a good philosophy for consistently winning teams. The big mistake was signing guys to 4-5 year deals that had little to no upside. Adding up the Fowlers and Cecils and Leakes, you could have had a Scherzer or Harper to actually help the team.
gscottar said:
Ok. Let’s look at more recent comparisons. If the Cardinals signed one or two stopgap starters on a one year deal how would that impede the rebuild? Would they be blocking someone?
Nope. This is where they were two years ago. The stopgap signings were Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. They helped the team be more “competitive” but so what? The Cards still missed the playoffs, but they did improve from 71 wins to 83. To some, that mattered.
It is too bad that the Cardinals can’t use their money on assets that have more than one year of value or are at least tradeable at the deadline for real value. (I guess this is what stlcard25 said just before me.)
P.S. I am not suggesting it be blown up and they should aim to win 60-65 games. I am just frustrated they are stuck in a down cycle. Maybe Bloom has a better idea.
Sell hard this winter, imo, but it’s unknown if Bill has a deadline game plan again in 2026.
Avoid the Fedde trap, again, and the injuries that can happen before Aug 1st, ruining deadline trade value of possibly multiple players.
Holding onto vets for respectabilities sake brings too much risk, even tho it has been the FO’s status quo, and it can only prolong the rebuild. Get these young players in the system.
How does holding onto Arenado and Gray prolong the rebuild? I have never quite understood that. It would be true if they were blocking someone or would bring back a really nice prospect haul but I haven’t seen any evidence of that being the case.
The way I would do it would be to keep Arenado, Gray, and Contreras.
Trade Gorman, Noot, and let’s say Crooks. Those three would help stock the farm some.
Sign cheap players like Walker Buehler, Dustin May, and Harrison Bader. None of those guys would break the bank or block anyone. But it would keep the team more respectable W-L wise (which would sell more tickets).
Then after 2026 Gray is off the books, after 2027 Arenado and Contreras are off the books. By then the farm should be producing and we are ready to cook. I don’t see how any of those moves would hamper the rebuild.
Instead they are going to trade Arenado, trade Gray, might trade Contreras, probably trade Donovan, might trade Noot, and might trade Burly or Herrera. We will win fewer than 70 games and ticket sales will plummet even further.
Perhaps the farm system rebuild is sped up a bit but that climb from 65 wins to 95 wins is a very very long climb.
Sign cheap players like Walker Buehler, Dustin May, and Harrison Bader. None of those guys would break the bank or block anyone. But it would keep the team more respectable W-L wise (which would sell more tickets).
What do you mean by more respectable w-l wise? I think the fan base has caught on to that ploy. 78 wins didn’t sell too well. What are you thinking a bunch of cheap signs is going to do?
What do you mean by more respectable w-l wise? I think the fan base has caught on to that ploy. 78 wins didn’t sell too well. What are you thinking a bunch of cheap signs is going to do?
I am just giving examples of cheapish players. It doesn’t have to be those specific names.
But in general yes I believe an 80 win team will generate more revenue than a 70 win team. And an 85 win team will for sure generate more revenue than a 65 win team. Not only ticket sales but tv ratings. As you have pointed out before bling the fans would more than likely be more supportive if the front office would give the fans more specifics instead of the bland platitudes and boiler plate double talk.
So far Bloom has not been much better in that department.
It doesn’t hurt the ‘rebuild’ to field an 80-85 win team in the interim.
But you have to actually commit to a rebuild by getting as many prospects and young players as possible.
For instance, trade Noot and/or Donovan, but then sign Bader to replace them. We get prospects and still remain relevant. Could flip Bader at the deadline too.
Likewise, guys like Buehler and Mahle can be good and flipped at the deadline, but keep our pitching staff in tact through the first half.
I am imagining a team of Bader, Buehler, Mahle and the like chugging through the season to an 82-82 record. I can hardly express how little interest I would have in that. It would probably feature another 50 R, 50 RBI season of Arenado too.
“But you actually have to commit to a rebuild by getting as many prospects and young players as possible” — PadsFS
👏👏Gray is in his walk year, he has an opt out. He brought up his willingness to waive his NTC. If any team wants him, and provides a market value trade return, he should be dealt. Rebuilds shouldn’t risk Grays current value, into 2026.
Will Bill turn CB loose now, or hold back assets until the deadline? Bills commitment to the rebuild could be better. He’s straddling the fence at the “gate” to date.
10days of PDJ brought Svanson in return. Every trade matters.
We need to remember that what it would take to get fans like us to decide to go to games or not go to games doesn’t matter. What would it take to get the selfie stick crowd to decide to go to games? Hiring Baders and Beuhlers so we can win a few extra games? Doubt that would move the attendance needle. It will take either star power, signed or developed, or a legitimate run at post season glory. I think they should forget the Baders and Beuhlers, and treat the ML squad like the top team in the development system, rather than as a thing apart from it, for the next couple seasons. Stay on point and on task and just take whatever attendance they get.
You have to get people and those listening them to feel excitement when they hear “I’m going to the Cards game tonight”. Its 2025.
I am imagining a team of Bader, Buehler, Mahle and the like chugging through the season to an 82-82 record. I can hardly express how little interest I would have in that. It would probably feature another 50 R, 50 RBI season of Arenado too.
How much interest are you going to have in a 60-102 season?
Stay on point and on task and just take whatever attendance they get.
Keeping the NTC’s does not take them off point because those guys are not blocking anyone or preventing the buildup of the farm system.
Just taking what attendance they can get sounds ok unless you are the guy responsible for drumming up revenue.
It doesn’t hurt the ‘rebuild’ to field an 80-85 win team in the interim.
Thank you Pads. This whole rebuild is about gearing up for 2028. The next two years is about getting rid of the contracts of Arenado, Gray, and Contreras, and contine to build up the minor league infrastructure. All of that should be done before the 2028 season. That is when BDW should turn CB loose.
In the meantime we can pursue two years of 85 win teams or two years of 65 win teams. The former sells more tickets and the latter improves our draft slot. Either way you go it is about getting to 2028.
And by the way trading Arenado, Gray, and Contreras now does not mean we are all of sudden rid of their contracts. Wrong. We are going to be paying on them whether they are here or not. I would rather pay them to play for the Cardinals than some other team. Gray is stil our best starter, Arenado is still an elite defender and will double Gorman’s WAR, and Contreras is one of our OPS leaders.
In two years we will be ready to build a 95 win team. I think going from 85 to 95 is easier than going from 65 to 95.
A decade ago the Astros and Cubs both did their famous tank jobs that led to world series championships. Other teams have been trying to copy that apporach ever since but with little success. Why? Because it is very hard to do! Once you tank yourself into a 65 win team there is no guarantee you are going to climb out of it.
I still think the Tampa, Cleveland, Milwaukee model are good ones for the Cardinals to emulate. The advantage the Cardinals have over those three is that when the Cardinals are ready to win big they can throw in some extra payroll muscle. The Cardinals are capable of the 10th highest payroll when the time comes. Combine that with the beefed up minor league system then you really have something. That is a different model than Mo’s rob peter to pay paul approach.
“Look to the past and point to the future to avoid the reality of today”.
Bills approach at WWU is alive and well.
How about Brendan Donovan for Wilyer Abreu?
Cardinals get a 4-5 WAR upgrade over Jordan Walker in right field making major league minimum.
Red Sox get a Bregman replacement at $35 million in savings.
I’ve said this on multiple threads, they don’t have to completely blow it up and be a beyond crap team to rebuild the farm.
Donnie (2 years of control) for Edward Cabrera (3 yrs). They will surely be trying by 2028, right?!?
If they can shed $10M/yr the next two years from Arenado’s contract, they could backload a deal until 2027 (see Gray,Sonny). Giolito? Only 30…..
Gorman with regular ABs and time in the field, he will and can improve as he showed.Tommy Saggesse at 2B till Jj gets 100 ABs in Memphis then you have a respectable cost conscious club at least.
Walker in AAA or preferably a change of scenery trade. Then sign a one year bat for RF then turn to Baez by 2027.
They can build a system without sucking pathetically which seems to be their direction.
All of the following teams are “possibly in the market for a LT catcher
Rangers Trade: Jimmy Crooks for Jose Corniell or Winston Santos, both SP’s
Giants trade: Crooks for RHH OF Dakota Jordan
Phillies trade: Crooks and a lesser piece for Justin Crawford or Cade Obermueller and Moises Chase
After Donnie for Edward Cabrera of course.
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