The Front Office's place in all of this chaos.

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  • #97508
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    gscottar
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    #97514
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    14NyquisT
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    gsc…. I read that earlier and I’m thinking one good week for us and a down week for CHC and MIL and we could be in first place. No NLC team wants the damn division title. Its still very uncertain who takes it all, and that would be a clue as to why none of these teams would move on.

    The division is just not as good as most thought it to be. Au contraire.

    #97550
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    1964cards
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    What a conundrum … this team has not performed well and will need to be blown up in my opinion. The questions become when and by whom.

    My guess is that Dewitt will want to go for it this season and not want to make any significant changes until the offseason. The race for the Division title is close. If the team can play anywhere close to what is expected they may have a chance to sneak in. I think this is a chance ownership will want to take.

    Once they get to the off-season the reload or rebuild will be painful. Here are the issues I see:

    1) Does ownership want to retain the personnel that have been putting together the club the past three seasons? IMO, there needs to changes in the front office no matter the outcome of this season.
    2) A lot of the players the club will want to unload are older and expensive. IMO, Most if not all of these guys will not fetch much in return (most of the proposals I see appear to over value the talent the club would be trading). I fear the club will need to eat a lot of salary if they expect to get decent prospects.
    3) Will ownership open their pocket book to sign a difference making free agent or two? History indicates that will try, but how aggressively is the question.
    4) It appears to me that the minor league pipeline is not what is used to be. There a few gems, but not the quantity of quality players the franchise had a few years ago. The club will need to restock the farm system over the next several years.

    The Front Office created this mess. This group needs to go. The organization needs some fresh thinking if they are going to turn this around longer term.

    #97568
    BlackHillsCard
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    With Yadi going on the IL for the second time for the same injury I’m confident the medical staff will finally be able to heal his nagging injury without surgery.

    #97578
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    Hopefully Molina will be honest about how it feels and it can be evaluated fairly. I have no idea if this was an issue before, but it would not surprise me if he would try to sneak and plead his way back too soon for his own good. I would guess – and it is a guess – that this would be a better point for blame than the medical team – if one has to assign blame. But then again, I should consider the purpose of this thread…

    #97614
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    gscottar
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    You don’t say…

    #97641
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    14NyquisT
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    This is from VEB’s Jason LaRue.

    Very interesting numbers.

    Roster Value:

    Baseball Trade Values, recently featured in the Effectively Wild podcast, is a fun new website that uses surplus value as a baseline and adjusts it for multiple factors to determine each player’s trade value. You can see the methodology here. It gives us a great starting place for determining what kind of trade value the Cardinals have on hand.

    Cardinals Median Surplus Trade Value (millions)

    Player Median Surplus
    Gorman 44.9
    O’Neill 27.7
    Carlson 24.4
    Hudson 16.1
    Knizner 13.9
    Montero 12.8
    J. Martinez 10.6
    Wong 10
    J. Torres 7.4
    Ozuna 7.2
    Nunez 6.8
    Herrera 4
    L. Thomas 3.9
    Gomber 3.1
    A. Garcia 2.9
    G. Cabrera 2.7
    Edman 2.4
    Helsley 2.3
    Oviedo 1.8
    E. Sosa 1.8
    Arozarena 1.7
    E. Mendoza 1.7
    Poncedeleon 1.7
    Woodford 1.5
    Leone -1.2
    Wacha -2.2
    Gyorko -3.8
    Fowler -32.9

    #97659
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    That trade value on O’Neill is really inflated. I also think it might undervalue young pitching, but, otherwise, that is fascinating and probably fairly spot on.

    #97709
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    1964cards
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    Carpenter not valued?

    #97717
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    PugsleyAddams
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    No Flaherty on this list??? Indeed, O’Neill valued way too high….as are Leone and Fowler.

    #97734
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    Pugs, saying that Fowler is valued way too high on that list deserves some kudos. That’s a good laugh early on Saturday for me.

    #97739
    stlcard25
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    Flaherty is someone I would most consider trading. If people think Cmart is frustrating to watch with his consistently solid seasons, then Flaherty with his torrent of home runs allowed is going to drive them bonkers. He’s not an ace and very likely never will be, but some team could probably be suckered into betting on his 2018 being the harbinger of a great future.

    #97760
    Brian Walton
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    Through the first half, Fowler had the highest OPS+, 109, of all active Cardinals. (Ozuna was tops at 120.)

    Of course, this says as much about the rest of the underperforming roster as it does about Fowler, but the man deserves some credit after last year.

    #97763
    stlcard25
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    Through the first half, Fowler had the highest OPS+, 109, of all active Cardinals. (Ozuna was tops at 120.)

    Of course, this says as much about the rest of the underperforming roster as it does about Fowler, but the man deserves some credit after last year.

    Agreed. Fowler has had two years about what we paid for when he signed sandwiched around a major dud. He’s played a bit better in the field than expected this year, as well. A slight uptick at the plate and he’d be considered a success in 2019, even.

    #98015
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    BrockLou
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    I was in Toronto recently, and I walked past the Rogers Centre on my way to the CN Tower. There are only a few player banners hanging outside the stadium. One of them is for Randal Grichuk!

    #98016
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    14NyquisT
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    I always keep an eye on Grichuk this season as well as our old buddies Kid Gallen, Sandy Alcantara and AAAer Andy Young. Wow, how we could use them now!!!

    #98022
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    14NyquisT
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    From the desk of Matt Graves (Redbird Rants) Some good points made.

    In the field of psychology, there is a metaphorical term called, “The Crowd.” I am not a psychologist, a psychology major, or anyone qualified, but I have read enough books to know how this could apply to the St. Louis Cardinals. It may not apply to the Cardinals as a whole, but it definitely does to their leader, the man in charge, John Mozeliak.

    In general, the St. Louis Cardinals know what the fan pulse is. It may not seem like it, they may not act like it, but they know what fans are complaining about and they know who they want gone. That being said, a Lion doesn’t concern itself with the opinion of sheep. As bad as I feel calling all fans sheep, until the dislike of a player or front office member leaks into attendance numbers, why would the ownership care what some fans think?

    Again though, it’s when those opinions of the metaphorical “Crowd” start to affect what ownership cares about (attendance) that things start to get real for them and in the end, the Crowd always wins. The Crowd starts to happen when enough people in a group start thinking the same way and that snowballs to the point where opinions can’t get changed, and in certain historical instances, things can get ugly.

    That is why I believe John Mozeliak might be fearful of losing his job.

    For years there has been at least some pocket of fans that have disliked the smooth-talking General Manager/President of Baseball Operations, but it hasn’t been until this season that the voice of that ever-growing crowd have gotten loud enough for the laymen fan to hear.

    When dealing with “The Crowd,” there is only one way to deal with it. You either end the crowd or give it what it wants. In this situation, Bill Dewitt cannot end the crowd because they are the only thing keeping him afloat. That’s why the Crowd can be so powerful. The St. Louis Cardinals are currently being helmed by two men who likely are doing a better job than we all think. The Crowd will win, but should it?

    At the end of the day, if enough fans are sharpening their pitchforks and storming the gates of Busch Stadium clamoring for Mo’s head on a stick, Dewitt wouldn’t think twice about throwing him out. He can’t afford the alternative.

    Mo has hit on some bad luck lately, but in life, everyone is going to remember the bad things way easier than the good.

    #98042
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    All those words to say, “If you don’t like the direction of the team and want something done about it, stay home.” (He should have added, “and not watch on TV, either” because ratings also have a financial impact.)

    I haven’t seen mid-season ratings yet, so all we have to go by is attendance, which right now is averaging 42,769 with a total of 1.924 MM over 45 home games. That is no. 2 among the 30 MLB teams and has them on track for 3.46 MM for the season, ahead of 2018.

    If “The Crowd” wants change, they had better stop talking about it and get busy!

    P.S. Our forum standards are to not copy and paste entire articles, but always include links. Paraphrasing and sharing selected quotes are fine, just not the whole thing. Thanks.

    #98047
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    Cardinal in France
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    The problem with trying to move management by staying away from the ballpark or not watching electronically is that many Cardinals fans, perhaps even most, are like me – they love baseball in all it’s forms, and the Cardinals in particular. If I have an opportunity to go to a ball game, even between the two worst teams in MLB, I’ll go. God knows in my youth I suffered through the entire decade of the 1950s cheering for losing St. Louis teams (despite the joy of Musial, Slaughter, Schoendienst, et al) until the sweet smell of victory in 1964. It’s the game itself that draws me. It used to drive my wife nuts when we lived in the States that I was unable to walk through a public park without stopping for a quarter of an hour to watch a couple of innings of a Little League game, or later on home leaves dragging her to San Antonio Missions (AA) games. Sure it’s a lot more fun when the Cards are winners. When the Redbirds win my whole outlook on life is more positive. But trying to punish DeWitt, Mo and Co. or incite them to action by staying away would only punish ourselves. And, of course, that’s what those guys in the front office count on.

    #98048
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    RememberDiz
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    I think his point is from Julius Caesar, “the evil that men do live after them, the good is oft-interred in their bones.”

    I just must admit that I am having some difficulty finding anything in the skeleton that is inherently good.. It seems that we have compromised the long-term success with some resource-draining contracts that were ill-advised. But, I am unwilling to trade prospects in order to try to find solutions.

    I would rather see a long-term plan in place that values developing our players and retaining them as long as possible. I hate to see them perform elsewhere while those who we got for them underperform here. I look at the trade value list, and I don’t really want to trade anyone that is in the top twenty. I might consider trading Ozuna if I were to get the right offer. I would be willing to let Gyroko or Leone go. But, I want to keep the prospects around. I would trade Carp just to get him out of our long-term plans, even if we had to pay a part of his salary.

    I really want to keep our middle (DeJong, Wong, Bader, Molina, all pitching), maybe also with our reserves at C. I want that defense available with the hope that we can develop sufficient offense from them or elsewhere. Our problem is that we have little offense from our corners. I don’t want to trade for any front line pitcher. I think we have enough. I’m not all that happy with the relievers that we bring in.

    I think I’m more likely to plant the skeleton and hope that it is actually a tree that might take root. We used to generate some ready fruit…. Now, it all seems to have some inherent flaw.

    #98049
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    It all gets down to how really serious the members of “The Crowd” are. Personally, I agree with the general premise of the article – the only way fans can send an EFFECTIVE message to the team is through their spending. Don’t go to games, cancel your subscription to FOX Sports Midwest, etc.

    The message is hardly new. It appears that not many have gone this far, however.

    P.S. Some old-timers may remember “The Faction”, a self-titled group that wanted LaRussa and Jocketty fired in the very early part of the 2000’s. They bought ads and even flew an airplane banner over Roger Dean during spring training. They failed, of course. Years later, Jocketty was fired, but not because of fan anger. As all reading this already know, TLR retired after winning two titles with the Cardinals.

    #98050
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    gscottar
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    I agree with CIF’s sentiments. Why should lifelong fans punish themselves because they are displeased with the team? That is a very cynical way of doing business and I would hope DeWitt and company would be better than that.

    #98054
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    Well, if you want the president of baseball ops fired and you feel strongly about it, how do you get your message acted upon? Complaining on the internet or flying a banner may make you feel better, but it will not move the needle.

    #98058
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    gscottar
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    I would just hope that the owner would be able to make decisions based on what is happening on the field instead of a fan having to fly a banner or boycott the season.

    One of the P-D writers wrote about this recently in a chat. Most fans judge success by whether the team is in the playoffs or not whereas ownership looks at more things like revenue, farm system, other ventures like ballpark village, etc….

    #98061
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    gscottar, I hope you know that I agree with your general view. I was just trying to put myself in the shoes of the angry fans who feel they must DO something. I will let Ny or one of the others in “The Crowd” take over playing that side of the discussion.

    Just to be clear, though, I equate flying a banner with futility. On the other hand, an economic boycott, while disagreeable to some, would get ownership’s attention if it was truly widespread. (Which I doubt would happen.) Speaking of the P-D, I’ve seen Goold suggest a boycott to unhappy fans more than once in recent times.

    DeWitt certainly looks at more things than just making the playoffs, yet not all are equal, especially when one is out of sync over a longer period. DeWitt has been very clear that playing in October is their intent (and not doing so has a negative financial impact). Even Rick Hummel said that four straight years would likely lead to front office changes.

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