October 12, 2021 at 8:14 am #174861PadsFSParticipantFree
Out of 73 players who had at least 70 plate appearances in the leadoff spot, Edman was 54th in OBP. He was 3rd in doubles and 3rd in SBs. It’s hard to quantify how the doubles and stolen bases counteract the OBP but SLG does take into account total bases. Edman was 52nd in SLG. If you take his 25 stolen bases when batting as the leadoff hitter and add 25 to his total bases, then re-figure only his SLG, he moves up to 36th in SLG. What this tells me is that no matter what way you slice it, Edman was not one of the better leadoff hitters in the major leagues in 2021. Maybe he will be one of the best in the future. However, until the OBP comes up, the team should identify a different leadoff hitter.
It was rare, but I wanted to share an actual good post from someone over on CardsTalk about this:
We can actually estimate the value of Edman’s baserunning (stolen bases) vs. his less than stellar OBP.
So the run expectancy (RE24) value of his SB and CS are:
10 x (1.068 – 0.831) + 10 x (0.644 – 0.489) + 10 x (0.305 – 0.214) – 2 x (0.831 – 0.243) – 2 x (0.489 – 0.095) – 1 x (0.214 – 0) =
2.37 + 1.55 + 0.91 – 1.18 – 0.79 – 0.21 = 2.65 runs
Now, how many additional time would he have to reach 1st base instead of making an out to equal 2.65 runs of expected value?
For simplicity, I’ll assume:
1) Each PA is with the bases empty
2) The PAs are evenly distributed between there being 0 outs, 1 out, and 2 outs
So we try to find Y:
Y * (0.831 – 0.243) + Y * (0.489 – 0.095) + Y (0.214 – 0) =
Y * 1.20
Y = ~2
So, basically, the entire contribution of Edman’s SB/CS is worth about the equivalent of him walking something like 6-8 additional times, or a net 0.010 in OBP.
Therefore, from a (simplified) run expectancy standpoint, Edman’s 30 SB and 5 CS raise his .308 OBP to approximately an “effective” .318 OBP.October 12, 2021 at 8:16 am #174862PadsFSParticipantFree
Give that, I would like to point out that the average ML leadoff hitter hit .262/.332/.431/.764 with a wRC+ of 107
Edman’s line with the higher OBP is .262/.318/.387/.705 with a wRC+ of a couple points higher than 91.
Definitely room for improvement. I thought that the SBs and the doubles would have been more beneficial than they were.
The obvious solution is to hit Carlson 1st and find a DH that can bat 5th behind Arenado.October 12, 2021 at 8:53 am #174863ZTRParticipantFree
To answer the question on Coleman I’d have to dig up a couple of stats.
1) What was the average OBP for the regular leadoff hitters across baseball in 1985?
2) What was Coleman’s OBP after the all-star break – especially the last 6-8 week?
In 1930 the average BA was .300 so being a .300 hitter was no great shakes while in 1967 .301 lead the AL.
Everything is relative.
But yes, if Coleman’s OBP is below average for regular leadoff hitters in the NL in 1985 then one could say he was sub-par in that category.
Now, I’d bet he was among the leaders at getting to 2nd base….and thus putting himself in scoring position for McGee, Here, and Clark.October 12, 2021 at 10:01 am #174868gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
Seager is the highest impact player on the market and some of his injuries have been freak in nature.
That is the part I don’t buy. I am not a big believer in coincidence. Some players are just more prone to injury even if it is by HBP.October 12, 2021 at 10:05 am #174869gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
I just do not see the need to go too crazy this off season. More of a tweaking of the roster if the opportunity is there – mainly in the pitching area and bench strength. Like perhaps a Brad Miller type that can give you a good lefty bat off the bench. Maybe Noot is that guy but too early to tell.
I agree forsch. This team has a lot of pieces in place. If we stay healthy we will win the division with what we have, but since injuries do occur, we need to beef up our depth.
Bring back McFarland, Garcia, and either LeBlanc or Lester. Go after another quality starter and solid LH bat with some pop. I don’t want our payroll to get so top heavy with long term mega deals where we are completely stuck in the mud if one of the big guys get hurt.October 12, 2021 at 11:53 am #174872
The Cards don’t like long term mega deals with players they don’t know. They like to trade and extend if the trade is working out well. Shorter term deals with outside fill in players have worked out reasonably well.October 12, 2021 at 5:52 pm #174876bicyclemikeModeratorPaid - Annual
I don’t see Cardinal management going with another big contract. And I tend to agree with that. It’s always a gamble, but there are enough guys who should be better in 2022 on this club, that you don’t need to get too crazy to be better.October 12, 2021 at 6:37 pm #174882mudvilleParticipantPaid - Annual
It’s hard for me to imagine Edman as a utility guy. He’s the spark plug for this team. He makes things happen. He’s got to be in the lineup,IMO. Unless what we saw from Gorman was a mirage, he’s going to be playing second base at some point. And once he gets there, he might not have to give it back. It will be interesting to see if Edman gets some reps at shortstop next spring. I bet he does.
With Edman and Sosa both able to play SS, and Gorman on the horizon for 2B, the Cardinals are not likely to spend 250M-350M for a shortstop. I’d say to forget about that happening. They can cover the shortstop position adequately or better with Edman and Sosa.
Whatever happens, I just hope they don’t sign a free agent reliever. Trade for a reliever that can help, or forget it.
My biggest concern going forward is who is going to back up Yadi in 2022, and who is going to replace him in 2023. Knizner is not the guy. He showed that during his extended playing time after the club clinched.October 12, 2021 at 9:40 pm #174887
The Cards don’t go big with a FA at SS.October 13, 2021 at 10:02 am #17490414NyquisTParticipant
My biggest concern going forward is who is going to back up Yadi in 2022, and who is going to replace him in 2023. Knizner is not the guy. He showed that during his extended playing time after the club clinched.
I doubt that we’ll see a major acquisition before ST starts. The OF has solidified and the Mid-IF needs some moving around with the guys we have and there are options. One thing is certain… Edman will be a regular because he will improve and he is durable.
As things look now, the Cards will probably need to sign or trade for a premier C for 2023. The good prospects we have stalled during this season and unless there is some big improvement from the top level Cs there will be a big hole at MLB level. Knizner will get a second/third chance to prove he can step in… but so far a disappointment at the plate.October 13, 2021 at 5:36 pm #174916bicyclemikeModeratorPaid - Annual
Knizner seems like a guy who will hit once he is playing on a more regular basis. Seems to have good mechanics.October 13, 2021 at 8:15 pm #174923mspaidParticipantFree
Tweaking just doesn’t seem to be the right answer for me. Tweaking only insures further mediocrity and will likely put the Cardinals in the wildcard game again…or maybe it’ll work. So, get tweaking, Junior.October 14, 2021 at 7:41 am #174953
With Goldy, Arenado, O’Neill, and Carlson as MOTO bats, plus Gorman, Yepez, and Burleson coming on strong, we now have enough pop internally. Biggest question is whether Edman can play a decent SS.October 14, 2021 at 8:47 am #174954stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
To clear up some of the math on the money we have committed to 2022…
First, we are NOT paying Arenado $35M next year. The Rockies will be kicking us $5.575M and $6M is deferred until 2032+. However, we will be paying him a $2M deferral payment on July 1 which I included in his number. So his actual outlay is $25,425,000 next year.
Second, I used the arb numbers quoted from MLBTR. It’s as good a guess as any.
Third, declined options are included in this year’s salary. I don’t know the details but I’d guess most, if not all option payments happen at the time the option is declined, so it’s not really a part of the 2022 budget.
So here are known salaries:
Now for Arb:
$21,100,000 Sum total $122,525,000
Now add another 13 players on minimum salary to fill the rest of the roster (I used $575k as the minimum salary) adds another $7,475,000 for a final neat sum of $130,000,000. That’s the number I’m going to use for now.
Of course the final budget number is yet to be determined but it’s probably safe to say the Cards have somewhere between $20m and $50m to spend on 2022. Anything outside that would be a bit of a surprise. The difference between those two numbers is what will make the difference between us adding an impact player or simply supplementing what we have.October 14, 2021 at 12:00 pm #174960RatsbuddyParticipantFree
I would say if we land a free agent SS it’s going to be Story from Colorado. As I posted a few days ago, hopefully Arenado can persuade Story to come to St. Louis. I think he might be the cheapest of the free agent shortstops in the market. Sounds like Correa might be heading to New York. Not sure what’s on Seager’s mind but I doubt that he ends up back with the Dodgers.
Story might be a concern due to Coors Field inflating his numbers a little but I still believe he’s better than our other two options in DeJong and Sosa. And Edman is not – NOT – going to be playing SS. You can forget that.
r/Esteemed RatOctober 14, 2021 at 1:46 pm #174961
Whatever they do it looks like it’s without SchildtOctober 14, 2021 at 5:47 pm #175012DavidParticipantFree
If we can… go after Story. I’m sure Nado has already mentioned to him what it’s like to play for the Cardinals and when people say that Cardinals fans are the best… it’s not just saying. Not sure what our Budget is like but if we can afford Story and Scherzer… I’d like to go that route while giving some of our younger players some AB and innings just to get their feet wet a little.October 14, 2021 at 7:15 pm #175022kscardfanParticipantFree
After everything that has been said today, I would say they may make a minor deal for a bullpen guy and not much else. Sad.October 14, 2021 at 8:49 pm #175026
and when people say that Cardinals fans are the best… it’s not just saying
I’d like to think that too, but attendance was horrific this year. It’s been over 3 million every year since 2003. 2.9 that year. This season was only 2.1 million, the lowest since 1995 which wasa short year coming off the 1994 strike season. The last time they had this low of attendance in a full season was 1984. I know coming back from a “pandemic” things are different. Cardinals still, I believe, we’re #1 TV views, but the better make attending a game affordable again and fill the seats. The 1 game I attended this year was empty and a shame.October 15, 2021 at 4:28 am #175037CardsFanInChiTownParticipantFree
I’m in favor of bringing Lester or Happ back as a proven 5th starter as well as McFarland, who is probably at the right price point for a LHRP, anyone have strong feelings for or against that?October 15, 2021 at 5:29 am #175039blingboyParticipantPaid - Annual
It seems safe to say we are not going to do whatever Shildt wanted us to do.October 15, 2021 at 8:03 am #175044Pork TwainParticipantFree
What exactly was said today, that leads you to believe that?October 15, 2021 at 8:36 am #175047
I don’t want Lester or Haap back. Flaherty, Hudson, Wainwright, Mikolas are there. I’d like to see another front line starter. Scherzer would be great, don’t know if it’s reasonable though. As for McFarland I wouldn’t object to him being back, but if they could get a Rogers or another LH like that I’d prefer it.October 15, 2021 at 8:44 am #175048
They said it wasn’t a matter of wins and losses, it was a philosophical difference. Which means Schildt and Mo were butting heads over something. I’ve heard players are shocked and upset, doesn’t sound like it was a clubhouse issue either. This was a Schildt and Mo problem.October 15, 2021 at 9:18 am #175053Pork TwainParticipantFree
That tells you that they are not going to make any significant moves?
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