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New odds courtesy of BetOnline (www.BetOnline.ag, Twitter: @betonline_ag).
Will there be an MLB regular season?
Yes -500 (1/5)
No +300 (3/1)Here’s an update:
Will there be an MLB regular season?
Yes -300 (1/3)
No +200 (2/1)I see the NBA is returning July 31. If MLB wants to remain relevant and not lose any more ground to the NBA and NFL than they already have, they need to get a plan in place for 2020 baseball.
MLBPA rejects MLB’s proposal:
Here is the summary.
“The league’s demand for additional concessions was resoundingly rejected.”
Details here.
https://www.mlbplayers.com/post/mlbpa-executive-board-reaffirms-stance-on-resumption-of-play
MLB’s current proposal to players assumes no fans at games this season. It sure seems like that will not be completely the case. More revenue to MLB should lead to additional concessions to players…
Fairly significant: Sources indicate MLB is inclined to allow Texas-based teams to play with fans in stands, regardless of whether fans can attend in other markets. Talk about your home-state advantages. https://t.co/lVqcGDbPsf
— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) June 4, 2020
This is getting depressing. These two parties need to find the middle ground and start playing! And very soon!
Unfortunately, this situation reminds me of the U.S. auto industry in the 1970’s. Each party thinking of themselves and ignoring competitive products. I think we all know what happened there. Both sides lost and I fear we will see the same thing happen here.
I agree 1964 – it does not appear anyone is looking at the bigger picture. Instead it is all about “me”, on both sides.
Interesting way to look at the owners' numbers depending on length of season. The difference in claimed losses via the added games is $326 million, which is probably less than two years of expanded playoffs tv money that the players already offered. https://t.co/EZWtHbeuPd
— Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) June 5, 2020
I don’t see how all these writers who are right in the middle of everything can miss the point. Maybe they just want the answer to be simple, easy to describe. That way they don’t have to think, they don’t have to understand what they’re looking at, what they’re talking about when they write. IMO, this controversy is not about the money. It’s about control. It’s about who’s in charge. Should it be the owner’s? Or should it be the players’ union? I think it should be the owners, not because they’re better than the players, but because that’s the way organizations operate best. When there’s a competent and effective management crew, the organization usually flourishes.
Also, someone needs to step in and save the game, IMO. Attendance is going down, young people for the most part aren’t interested in baseball. Revenue necessarily has to follow. The handwriting is on the wall. I read an article in today’s Post-Dispatch that was about Bob Costas. This what Dan Cesar, the sportswriter said in his opening paragraph:
‘Bob Costas has covered Major League Baseball at the network television level for 40 years, watching the sport go through labor strife, the steroids era and the current transformation of the game from traditional strategy to defensive shifts, a “swing for the fences” mentality and meandering play.’
IMO, all of these things are what’s causing attendance to go down, and personally, the point that bothers me the most is ‘meandering play’. I think the meandering play of Dexter Fowler is what has made so many fans livid about having him around. But there is much more of that going around than what we see with Fowler. The players see themselves as entertainers, a analogy drawn by a player’s agent. It’s entertaining to watch players who are there to compete, there to challenge themselves and their abilities, there to challenge their opponent. It’s not so entertaining to watch players who are there to entertain.
The game needs to be overhauled. It needs to disintegrate and be reconstructed, IMO. Maybe someone can figure out a way to reconstruct the game without having to have it disintegrate. That would be wonderful if it could happen. IMO, this current conflict is not about the money. It’s about overhauling the game. I hope it happens.
The longer the MLB vs MLBPA squabble happens, the less money the owners lose daily with no fans in attendance at games, and the less earning power the players have remaining of their 2020 season.
How’s that for control?
I don’t sense the same urgency, at least from the owners’ perspective. They could start on August 1 and still finish a 50-game regular season on a normal pace (no extra games or doubleheaders) a week early. That would provide the extra time for the expanded playoffs.
Agree, I see no urgency from the owners. Why be in a hurry to lose money on half a season when they can squabble it down to a third of a season.
As always its the owners here causing problems. I like how people always try to say someone has to look at the big picture and just cave in. And in most of those cases, people always say its the worker who should give in. In this case particularly, the players are taking the risk by playing. The owners and their families aren’t taking any risk up in their fancy boxes. The players offered 114 games and yea there is some risk that if the virus comes back in full force later this year, and play gets suspended again, that’s the season and playoff money would be lost. Well yea that is a risk but the owners aren’t willing to take that but expect the players to take risk. Its really sad, they should have easily beat the nba to the punch but no the owners wouldn’t do it. The owners don’t deserve any kindness.
Labor negotiations are usually an eleventh hour situation. But the parties may be letting things slip to the 12th hour and we may have a lost season.
Major league baseball players are not typical workers. And they haven’t done so bad over the last few years. I find it hard to feel that players like Fowler are being mistreated by the system.
I think the small market owners were in trouble before the big TV revenues came along but should be OK now. So, are the parties big enough to salvage at least a part season. When I look around at the business activity I find it hard to believe that they can not come up with a way to play safely, particularly without fans.
The reality is that whatever the increased cost to the owners will end up coming out of the fans pocket. If you don’t believe it think of what it used to cost to take you family to a game. Today it is $100-200 or more. You may say that any concession to the players should come out of owners profits. Unfortunately a reduction in profits are regarded by owners and stockholders as we would regard a cut in pay.
Sooner said:
I think the small market owners were in trouble before the big TV revenues came along but should be OK now.
Case in point. The KC market ranks no. 27 in MLB. The Royals recently sold for $1 billion. None of them are in any serious financial risk, despite Ricketts saying last week that MLB losses this season are “biblical”. He received little to no sympathy, not surprising considering his family is worth billions.
In my opinion if they can’t play half of a season (81 games) then don’t play at all. Wait until next year. A 50 game season will be portrayed as a joke and a farce, which it is.
This article sums it up very well. The owners really don’t want a regular season at this point. They just want the playoffs because that is where the TV money is. I think both sides are at fault but I am having a hard time siding with the owners in this dispute.
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/6/6/21282272/48-game-season-rumored-jeff-passan-mlb-coronavirus
Passan basically says MLB is looking ridiculous.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29269242/inside-mlb-financials-fight-numbers-solve-it
The late-March agreement essentially gave both sides veto power to starting the season due to qualifiers (health risks and limits on fan attendance). That gives the owners the leverage now since they are the side that wants the shorter season. The players seem to have little to no leverage since they don’t want to budge on pay per game.
I’d add this to any agreement to begin the season if I were representing the MLBPA. Since the extremely shortened season is based on empty stadiums, I would request an “attendance dividend” if fans are subsequently allowed to attend. Notice I didn’t say revenue sharing. 😉 Clearly the owners have made statements where you can now make a good estimate how much revenue is generated per attendance size. So the players should request a dividend based on how many fans end up attending games, to include playoff attendance. Maybe this line of thinking might also be used to encourage the owners to go for a bit longer regular season.
With many days of shoulder to shoulder protests in many many cities there is not much attention being paid to the virus any longer. Even Springfield, Mo has had several days of protest marches with little social distancing and maybe 60% masks. Seems like July would be the right time for fans in the stands which could help break the money argument.
If losses are “biblical” as. Ricketts said, that speaks to the size of the industry. These guys have had it real good for awhile. Might be that you need to take a “biblical” hit to preserve the value of your asset.
I would think you will recover those losses in the next few years, although maybe I am being naive on that.
I wonder if anyone has done a break-even comparison on when losses would be recovered based on not playing at all this season and playing a shortened season? Another way to say it is, what is the estimated cost of the bad will as a result of no 2020 baseball?
Euro said:
I would request an “attendance dividend” if fans are subsequently allowed to attend.
MM3 said:
Seems like July would be the right time for fans in the stands which could help break the money argument.
I have been thinking about this, too. The owners’ current case assumes no fans through October/November. I bet at least limited attendance will be allowed in a number of cities before then. If that occurs, then the losses will not be as great as claimed.
No one talks about this. All they say is that the owners are taking the risk if there is a new outbreak and the season is canceled. What about the flip side?
My guess is that the owners are privately counting on this boost.
There’s much negativity around talks but MLB’s Dan Halem ends his recent letter to the union this way, “…we stand ready to discuss any ideas you may have that might lead to an agreement on resuming play without regular fan access in our stadiums.” Hopefully, there is hope! #MLB
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) June 6, 2020
Hopefully, there is hope!
I fail to feel any of Heyman’s hope that Halem’s letter provides any hope.
Yesterday was D-Day + 76 years. I watched 3 hrs of Gary Sinise narrated video on WWII including D-day and both Pacific and European fronts. I was 4 years old on D-day and have seen movies and other stories about it numerous times but I never realized how bloody it was and we almost lost the whole invasion.
I say that because I am starting to see MLB’s efforts to get baseball going as a similar effort with similar casualties – well that may be too dramatic. Anyway, MLB is in their own war and I am not sure if they are the good guy or the enemy. You make that call. Eventually one will be the victor but it will take years for the game to get back to normal or maybe there will be a new normal.
So I not sure when it will happen but I am looking for PB Day. I don’t even know what year it will happen but for sure there will be many hallelujahs when we hear “PLAY BALL” on PB Day.
PS: Not sure of local restrictions but passed by US Baseball Park in Ozark last week and the parking lot had a lot of cars. That night on TV there was a piece about the US Baseball Collegiate League starting and they interviewed a young Vanderbilt player who was supposed to go play in Mass this summer but they called that off so he came to this league until he goes to an east coast minor league team in July. He said they have college players from all over the country in the Collegiate league. This US Baseball bought a very nice ball park in Ozark and over the past few years has totally overhauled it with a new turf field, huge digital scoreboard and the crowning jewel, a huge indoor practice facility including batting cage and the like. Maybe one of the Springfield TCN reporters could snoop around and get some facts on that league. It just may be able to replace one or more of the minors teams. A good week to all.
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