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The most recent revelation that we are on the hook for the entire $35M to Arenado in 2023 is still stunning to me. It is a budget gut punch.
Yep, I agree. I’d say the Waino deferral being factored into this year’s budget feels the same. I get it…yet feel like it sort of misses the point of deferring the money if you’re not going to spend it elsewhere.
Basically we have about $26M extra on our budget already than we all thought…and that feels pretty crummy. Especially in light of Mo’s “payroll will rise”…that felt pretty disingenuous.
Thanks for the link. Pretty much stating what we have been saying since Goold ran point for the FO about the budget.
The rotation seems full by choice, that’s the FO decisions.
Wainwright, Flaherty and Hudson are nearly 25mil for 2023. They decided to bring them back, by choice. I’d have chosen a different path😉
Yeah I think we will see another season like the last two. We start the season counting on a list of injury returns and rookies who haven’t yet shown they can be successful in MLB. Then when that falls apart by mid season or so Mo goes out and finds half a rotation so we can make it through the season without imploding. Its good enough to be competitive I guess.
I want to win every year and I’m the first guy to do my share of griping when that doesn’t happen, but if my favorite team can be competitive and still be in the hunt throughout the majority of the season, I’m of the mindset that realistically that’s all you can really ask for. How’d you like to be a fan of some team like the Reds? Their ’22 season was effectively over by the last week of April. I don’t even want to think about that…Haha!
My definition of how competition works is at the end there is a winner and everyone else are the losers. It is true that so long as we stay in it, anything can happen, but the long odds gets old. Seeing that we would have to face one team after the next that is clearly better than us gets old.
Well, yeah it does. I thought we were the better team than Philadelphia going into the first round even though they clearly outplayed the Cardinals in the regular season games between the 2 teams. And I agree that it would be nice to possess an abundance of firepower going into the playoffs, but look what happened to the Dodgers. I still don’t like the post-season format. The Cardinals winning the NLC was in essence no better than a WC slot. At the same time, I guess I’m making excuses because a solid case could be made that they genuinely blew it vs. Philly. Now, all I can do is sit through the winter and take on the mindset of a Cubs fan and “Wait’ll next year”…Again.
Blingboy: Perfect analysis. The problem is very simple…they set their own salary cap. Forget a budget. A budget is a path to mediocrity. Make the playoffs and go out the first round…or the second but no chance to win the WS. That’s the strategy every year. Nothing will ever change as long as these owners are in place.
We used 7 different pitchers in the 2022 postseason. Maybe the best of them that series was Q, and now he’s a FA.
Mikolas, Montgomery, Helsley, Gallegos, Hicks and Pallante remain from that series. That is the pitching core that management chose with the season on the line.
For me, you can add Thompson and Woodford to that core. The remaining pitchers currently on the roster require HOPE. That’s a lot of hoping.
Good post jj. They need to give Thompson and Woodford more innings during the season… I am confident they both will do well and then they become additional options in the post season. They had some of the best stats on the team.
ERA. Thompson @ 2.08. Woodford @ 2.23
WHIP Thompson @ 0.98. Woodford @ 1.12
Thompson – 34 inngs. 8 runs allowed
Woodford – 48 inngs. 12 runs allowed.
These guys need to be regular in appearances!Thompson’s and Woodford’s results didn’t get them a meaningful role last season and I doubt that came from Maddux, so I can’t imagine 2023 would be different. Maybe figure out what a Pallante, or a Connor Thomas have that they don’t.
I imagine each pitcher’s health and performance next spring will determine individual roles on next year’s staff.
The question then becomes each arsenal. Thompson’s curve and 100 mph heater are most impressive.Thompson made one start last season and got blew up, 5 IP, 5 ER.
As a reliever Thompson threw 29.2 IP with a 0.91 ERA, allowing a 21 ops+, facing 112 batters.
With Cabrera’s inability to create K’s the second half (1 in 50 PA’s) and McFarland’s deserved demotion, I could see both Thompson and Woodford adding to their IP totals next season.
The flip side is, HomerHagen and Stratton both have guaranteed contracts which allow them the opportunities and a longer leash.
Taken from today’s local StL. paper, I’ve listed the 7 most pricey Cardinal FA signings since 2014. The first column is the dollar amount and length of contract, with the second column containing in respective order the illustrious names that placed their signatures on these contracts. It’s an ideal illustration of why I’d prefer that Johnny focus his attentions on potential trades, which I believe are his longsuit, rather than to go window shopping with a purse full of money.
1. 4 years, $44 MM
2. 2 years, $25 MM
3. 1 year, $14 MM
4. 5 years, $82 MM
5. 4 years, $30.5 MM
6. 5 years, $80 MM
7. 4 years, $53 MM1. Steve Matz…TBD
2. Andrew Miller… Not an utter disaster, but featured an ERA of right at 4.50 for the Cardinals.
3. Greg Holland…DFA’d after a 7.92 ERA in 25 IP.
4. Dexter Fowler…The worst of the worst. I can barely key in his name.
5. Brett Cecil…I suffered through severe panic attacks whenever he had a baseball handed to him.
6. Mike Leake…A little below so-so and in addition to being a T-shirt thief, he stole $80 MM.
7. Jhonny Peralta…Average defensive SS who couldn’t spell his own first name or get a hit the post-season.Billy Jr. would be wise to keep a close eye on on his POBO’s allowance at this time of the year.
Yes the Cardinals are really bad at free agency. Part of the problem is that they are always shopping in the bargain bins. They should stick to trades, drafting and player development. That is their strength.
Thanks for sharing.
Peralta was good for three of his four years. It ended badly, but I think his overall return was positive.
A common thread among all the others except Fowler is that they are pitchers. I don’t see enough data here to draw a conclusion about free agent hitters. They also left off a good hitter deal, 1 year for Albert. Just because it wasn’t big money doesn’t mean he didn’t provide great value.
Anyway, I suspect the real problem has been FA arms. (Good point on Mikolas, though. Also, Wainwright has re-signed one year deals as a free agent multiple times. Since they list Holland’s bad one-year deal, they should include the good one-year ones, too.)
Yeah, but the prices these guys went for can’t really be considered coming from the bargain aisle. A genuine bargain was Chris Carpenter who the Cardinals initially took a chance on for $300 K…Haha! I sometimes buy tools from Harbor Freight and some of them surprise me and turn out real well for the substantial amount of money I save. But I pay a pittance for them compared to a clearly superior high end tool and don’t mind too much if I end up tossing them against the garage wall. I certainly don’t expect them to perform as well as a quality tool and I’m always careful to determine whether or not it’s crucial that they do. At any rate, you’re right…You almost always get what you pay for, but sometimes even the fancy stuff can disappoint.
I’d say take another look at Peralta, BW. Two years at most. His last two years as a Cardinal were horrible.
It might be that pitchers tend to become free agents for a reason. Maybe their team has some reason to think they will not be worth the money they want and can probably get, for whatever reason.
I’d say take another look at Peralta, BW. Two years at most. His last two years as a Cardinal were horrible.
The Cards got over 7 WAR out of Peralta those first two years, so I’d paint it as a success. If every deal has to include every year as a net positive, then hardly any deals would be considered good deals.
BW…No question that Pujols in ’22 was one of the best performance and money returns in the history of this ownership group. In my view, the #1 best peformance and money return of this ownership group is Albert Pujols’ first 11 years with the Cardinals.
stlcard…His first two years. His second two years were horrible. That’s a 50/50 proposition.
That was baked into the deal. When you’re signing a 32 year old SS who’s not know for agility to begin with, you expect that the end of the deal is going to be ghastly. Just about everyone at the time thought of the contract that way. He made hay for two years (really one and a half) and then went off the cliff.
You’ll see the same thing with almost every “big” signing…Harper, Machado, Judge, even Goldy and Arenado. Teams are paying for the early production and holding on for the end of the contract. Anything better than that is gravy. That doesn’t make it a bad signing or even a 50/50 proposition any more than your retirement account going up and down with the market is. It’s just part of the game.
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