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It probably isn’t fair for me to say that Arenado is free for 2021. It is true the Cards aren’t paying him in 2021 but they will owe him $20M later. This fits in nicely with our cash flow issues this year and the payroll flexibility we have next year and beyond.
The players the Rockies got are nice players. I like Montero a lot. But I still feel they paid a huge price to get these players and should have received better. We won the trade and the Rockies are going to pay a huge PR price also, not to mention you can bet Story won’t be re-signing.
It is true the Cards aren’t paying him in 2021 but they will owe him $20M later.
The Rockies will be giving the Cardinals that $20 million to pay him, so yes, him plying for the Cardinals this year is free to the Cardinals.
I think you are correct in saying STL is free of Arenado salary for 2021. My interpretation is the 35mil salary owed is between Arenado and COL, w/Arenado deferring 20mil.
The 15mil salary in 2021 may pass through our hands? since he’s our player, but COL pays that. Cots shows the 20mil deferment to be paid from 2023-2027. He may not even be our player during those seasons, depending on his decisions, but that 20mil is part of the 51mil COL is buying out.
My question is of the remaining 16mil, that brings it to 51mil total reportedly paid by COL. Does the 16mil hinge on Arenado not opting out? Cots shows no COL payments for 2022, which allows the opt out decisions to be made before the 16mil is payable, as if it was conditional.
The Rockies will be giving the Cardinals that $20 million to pay him, so yes, him plying for the Cardinals this year is free to the Cardinals.
Yep, this is correct. The $20M is deferred and the Rockies will give it to the Cards if Arenado stays, or Arenado directly if he opts out.
The way Cot’s has it broken down is a bit confusing and they don’t have much information for 2026 and 2027. Maybe the Rockies are paying for that final year in 2027.
Good write up.
I wrote about the Arenado trade. https://t.co/w3DEmBjkt2
— Will Leitch (@williamfleitch) January 30, 2021
hindsight: Arenado was surely opting out after a 2021 season in COL. So COL chose our players over a comp pick, convinced Arenado to defer 20mil for a get out of jail free card now, and COL winds up paying the 35mil that was on their books this season anyway.
The additional 16mil I’m less clear on.
Carpenter may have had a bad day, but Gombers was worse.
That is all true JJ. I guess it comes down to whether the five prospects they got were worth $16M. Also, it is hard to put a price tag on the immense PR damage the Rockies have done. How many ticket sales and tv ratings have they crushed even in a pandemic? They have also ruined there chances of keeping Story.
I view our players for one free year of Arenado as the trade, vs holding on to a disgruntled employee and getting a Q-offer pick.
All COL’s PR problems were going to happen with or without us. I’m not sure the 16mil ever gets paid. Is it conditional to Arenado not opting out?
We are officially introducing Nolan Arenado to St. Louis at 11 a.m. CT.
Watch live on the Cardinals social media accounts, https://t.co/tuAN29Vh1m, and @MLBNetwork!
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) February 2, 2021
hindsight: Arenado was surely opting out after a 2021 season in COL. So COL chose our players over a comp pick, convinced Arenado to defer 20mil for a get out of jail free card now, and COL winds up paying the 35mil that was on their books this season anyway.
That was my take too. The Rockies essentially bought Gomber with the extra $16M and traded Arenado plus a year’s salary to St Louis for the four prospects. Gomber alone probably is worth the $16M over 5 years. The other guys just need to produce one MLB player to make it a financial win from the payroll side for the Rockies.
Like gscottar said, the PR loss is immense. They look like cheapskates who are unwilling to contend. Of course, the fans won’t admit that they weren’t going to contend for 3-4 years anyway with the juggernaut Dodgers and Padres in their division, but it will not be seen that way.
I view our players for one free year of Arenado as the trade, vs holding on to a disgruntled employee and getting a Q-offer pick.
All COL’s PR problems were going to happen with or without us. I’m not sure the 16mil ever gets paid. Is it conditional to Arenado not opting out?
The $16M is only paid if Arenado does not opt out. I would say the chances of Arenado opting are extremely small. Less than 5% after 2021 and less than 20% after 2022.
NEW at @stltoday: In Denver, they're afraid the Nolan Arenado deal will go down as the worst sports trade in Colorado history. Does that mean it will be one of the best in St. Louis? Arenado has entered the chat, but competition to make this list is stiff https://t.co/jwkpTnqfDA
— Ben Frederickson (@Ben_Fred) February 2, 2021
I view our players for one free year of Arenado as the trade, vs holding on to a disgruntled employee and getting a Q-offer pick.
All COL’s PR problems were going to happen with or without us. I’m not sure the 16mil ever gets paid. Is it conditional to Arenado not opting out?
I believe it will be paid the last year, or at least that’s what I read.
I’d put the chances of Arenado opting out at <10%. The market may not be very good next year so unless he’s winning an MVP in 2021 or 2022, he’s in Cardinal red for the foreseeable future. Here’s hoping he becomes the new Scott Rolen and has a Hall of Fame caliber 30s to go along with his HOFish 20s.
You bet, jj!
The Arenado trade had to be made, but it seems in a direction that the Cardinals have been moving with Shildt. He seems to be a speed, defense emphasis guy. This really gives us a superior defense. If we can get a center fielder who can hit we will almost be there. Replacing Yadi eventually with a good defender is also key.
I think Carlson is going to be ready this year. Edman should be good, not quite as good definsively as Wong but he should develop into a solid hitter. He seems to be the kind of guy who adapts well and continually improves.
If Arenado returns to form and DeJong maintains his early season performances over the long haul it could be a banner Cardinal season.
I think Gorman will hit St. Louis in 2022 and if the DH comes to the National League I could see him as a DH and defensive backup for Arenado and Goldy to give them a rest. I was really impressed with how Gorman performed in 2020 spring training and expect a good year for him split between AA-AAA in 2021.
I’m glad we didn’t give up Rondon.
The newest #stlcards player is happy to be here… pic.twitter.com/3FKqRx3JWn
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 2, 2021
Mo says addition of Arenado moves #stlcards from good to great team.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 2, 2021
Mo also said that the Cards may not be done this off-season. Whether that means more than Yadi, I’m not sure.
I find amazement that Mo was able to secure $35m in up-front money from the Rockies. I can’t even think of a rationale for more that $15m being unconditional. This is genius.
Thanks Brian and stlcard25 for clarification. Cots has 2022/2023 when I went to bed at 1am, but now it’s 2021/2022.
So the prospects we gave up were way different than first rumored to be. Montero might turn out to be a guy that can help the Rox. His ceiling just opened up for him and he can at least see some light above without having others ahead of him.
I think that Locey will turn out to be the sleeper in the deal… but of course we’ll have to wait to see if that comes to pass.
Keeping Rondon, Woodford, Torres and Baker is a plus for the system. Who initiated the rumor that they would be included in the trade? I believe that it was the usual suspects.
Ny, it was Rosenthal who threw out the first names, but he couched it carefully. At the very end of the call today, I tried to get Mo to give a little background on how the guys leaving were selected, but he remained generic. He did compliment his people and the Rockies for keeping quiet about the names.
Earlier he said he felt nauseous the last week because they kept hitting hurdles every time they felt close. I am guessing the names involved were fluid as the money assumptions changed.
Asked about the criteria he’ll use to determine whether he’ll exercise either opt out clause, Arenado says, “I plan on sticking around.” #stlcards
— Jeff Jones (@jmjones) February 2, 2021
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