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stlcard25 makes a great point. Be careful not to drop expectations too low. The Cardinals revenue may be down from its peak, but it is likely still well above TB, Cle and Mil.
There is no doubt the Cardinals need much greater efficiency. Having said that, remember that increased player development costs do not have a 1-1 relationship with the cut in MLB player payroll. The difference will go toward improving the bottom line.
When all is said and done, restoring/maintaining profitability reigns supreme. (That is less a criticism than a reality check.)
Final reminder: Number of World Series championships for the Brewers and Rays in franchise history total zero. The last time Cleveland won was over 75 years ago. Is that what the Cardinals want their future to be?
For me to be sold, they would need to say, “Yes, we are cutting spending now, but when we get the player development pipeline flowing again and we return to post-season competitiveness, we intend to increase payroll to a level in sync with our revenues, with the goal additional World Championships.”
That is quite a contrast to the old “find a way to get to October and hope to get hot,” which is probably what CLE, TB and MIL say.
I think it is apparent that the Cardinals endorse the theory of “get in and get lucky” when it comes to the playoffs so I doubt they would agree that their is a correlation between spending extra and winning a World Series. (Side note: 9 of the Cardinal World Series trophies had nothing to do with the DeWitt’s and they have won one playoff series in the last ten years so they probably shouldn’t be lecturing anyone on playoff success).
Despite market size and revenue totals why would Bill DeWitt want to spend $170M to win 90 games when he could spend $120M or less to win 90 games? It has been proven elsewhere that it can be done.
gscottar asked:
Despite market size and revenue totals why would Bill DeWitt want to spend $170M to win 90 games when he could spend $120M or less to win 90 games? It has been proven elsewhere that it can be done.
My only hope was that if they again rise to the level of being a legitimate WS contender that he might spend incrementally to try to improve the chances of winning another title.
I’m reasonably sure that quite a few are aware that in ’68 the Cardinals had the highest payroll in baseball history which was estimated to be about $800K. I’m also reasonably sure that if Billy Jr. would have been around back then, he would have made certain to instruct Johnny to keep both Gibson and Cepeda at a safe distance away from Marvin Miller.
A legitimate WS contender will not come from anyones farm. Bill will have to spend to get there, so then the budget discussion has to jump the “core” hurdle. Is the core strong enough yet? It’s the elusive core episode, and you’ve seen it. It’s phase 2. Poor Bill waiting to get lucky again.
I think we are moving the goalposts here. I don’t think winning a world series is on anyone’s mind except the fans and Ollie Marmol. I have heard Marmol mention it in the last couple of years but what I remember hearing from the front office is “winning the division”, “being a contender”, or “being a playoff team.” In their minds that can be done on the MIL-CLE-TAM budget.
I’m reasonably sure that quite a few are aware that in ’68 the Cardinals had the highest payroll in baseball history which was estimated to be about $800K.
And at the time there was some concern that the Cardinals were possibly going to be bad for baseball as Augie Busch could pay more than most other teams, due to his vast resources from the brewery. We were looked at in a similar way as the Dodgers and Cohen/Mets today.
https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/ed0AAOSwTLRna5~g/s-l1600.webp
Yeah, how would any other Big League organization possibly hope to compete with the brewery warchest which was available to the “Evil Empire” located down on Pestalozzi Street?
gscottar said:
I think we are moving the goalposts here. I don’t think winning a world series is on anyone’s mind except the fans and Ollie Marmol.
In all fairness, when I brought it up, I did not suggest it is on ownerships’ minds NOW. I hoped it might move up the priority list if/when they truly become legitimate contenders again. Desires can change based on the situation. Maybe it would happen and maybe not.
jj said:
The Orioles of the last six seasons may be Bills template. I’ll hope it is.
Be careful what you ask for! 😉
The Orioles finished in last or second to last for six years straight (2017-2022) as they tanked and collected draft picks. Just four years ago, they lost 110 games and attendance dropped to less than 800,000. I don’t think Cardinals fans would live through that!
Yeah, although there were plenty of no-shows, the Cardinals still managed to sell 2.8M tickets for a lousy product last season.
Remember, 70% of Cardinals tickets are sold before the season began, and there were huge discrepancies between announced attendance and actual attendance. There is going to be a HUGE drop in attendance this year. Those people that paid for tickets and then did not show up are not going to pay for tickets again.
I get than different fans want different things. Stepping back, it all gets down to the Cardinals’ primary motivation. Is it?
Cut payroll
Rebuild the farm system
Remain competitive in 2025 (to keep revenue up)I think it is pretty clear the Cardinals primary motivation is to cut payroll.
If people want a read about how the Dodgers can afford their payroll, this article offers some insight.
Basically, they took the Cardinals old model (just try to get into the playoffs) and upgraded it (try to win the World Series).
The auther gets some jabs in about the Chicago teams and the teams that cry poor.
The Yankees aren’t on Arenado’s six team list, but here’s Joel Sherman’s take on the Yankees interest in Arenado
“Careful what you wish for”
The TB, CLE, MIL model is the best of the poor. Their budgets are fixed, never raising payroll to “go for it”. I’m not wishing for that.
I don’t think winning a world series is on anyone’s mind except the fans and Ollie Marmol.
This statement is the essence of how it should always be in baseball. To the suits baseball can be a business. To the manager it has to be about winning. I think maybe after enduring TLR, BillMo had enough of the manager who is all about winning when they are trying to run a business. That might be where Shilt when off the rails, in their eyes. I don’t think that statement is accurate as to Ollie. I think Marmol has done a good job of aligning with his bean counting bosses, which is why he got an extension. They will never win without a manager who is always pressing his bosses to make the team better.
Another point or two on the tickets sold vs. attendance discussion.
Yes, the Cardinals still sold 2.8 million, but many tickets were heavily discounted. They had specials for Cubs weekend games in the summer, for Pete’s sake, games that were regularly sold out in the good times.
My other point is that selling the ticket is only half the story. No shows mean no concession sales, which is a big part of the profit machine.
As LACF said, it will be very interesting to see how far season ticket sales drop for 2025. That serves as a good indicator to the team as to where the year’s revenue is headed. I will be watching the crowd size at Winter Warm-Up in a few weeks for early signs…
You reap what you sow.
Smarmy condescending comments to ‘the idiots’ are damned disingenuous coupled with the product on the field – which has not been great since the first half of 2015 – is how the team and its finances unraveled to this point.
The Bally bankruptcy didn’t help but when you add up the new TV deal with other thing they are doing (can’t recall it atm) will likely keep that piece of the pie close to whole.
When all is said and done, restoring/maintaining profitability reigns supreme. (That is less a criticism than a reality check.)
I really don’t think this is a position ownership can take in these times. We have 4-5 Steinbrenner’s out there nowadays.
Frankly I think it would be funny if Mo would now come out and declare that Arenado is remaining with the team for 2025. He then proceeds to trade Fedde, Helsley, Matz, and Noot. That would reduce the payroll another $30M which would make Bill DeWitt happy. Arenado would then be wondering why he refused to go to Houston, who could still win their division, to stay on a 70 win Cardinal team. It would serve him right.
Is the 6mil Arenado has already deferred in both 25′ and 26′ tradable? Or is that a locked in STL expense like COL’s 5mil? How much of Nolans remaining salary can be traded?
Everyone talks about the TV rights deal and the potential lost revenue from gate and concessions, but how do these rats stand to profit from their gambling LLC in BBV which was subsidized by tax payers. Not a dime of that soon to be realized money machine that BDWIII was adamant to have will go to support the product the Cardinals put on the field. But all is good on the bottomline and that’s all that matters.
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