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There are times that I thought the Cardinals should hold a player back in order to get that extra year out of him, and they didn’t do it. I don’t think they would hold a player back as a matter of principle. At least, that’s the way it seems to me.
I like the Athletic, and I generally like the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. After reading Mark Saxon’s 2020 article, I thought that this was something that he wrote shortly after he got back from vacation. I’m guessing that he had to get it in to the Athletic before he could go to bed. The whole article is just random thoughts and wild speculation, IMO.
I think the Cardinals should do something and if Ozuna is that something then I can deal with him at 3-45. I just don’t think the Cardinals will spend that and block a player like Carlson or O’Neill unless they’re just going deal someone.
IMO Bader is a wild card. I would like to see him challenged by Thomas. I think we can survive without Bader being a starter if that bat doesn’t come around. His regression against left handed arms was alarming. If he can’t hit them and be playable against righties at the plate then he’s not the solution. No matter how good that glove is.
The following is not intended as a rebuttal of anyone in particular. (All WAR values come from Baseball-Reference.com.)
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I understand that some Redbird fans, and some sportswriters, are most comfortable by far with what might be called “veteran certainty,” and thus advocate that the Cards retain Marcell Ozuna for left field. (Among local scribes, Derrick Goold in particular likes to talk a lot about Marcell Ozuna’s “certainty” and how valuable that is.) So let’s look at what veteran certainty has gotten the club over the past few years.
The past three offseasons have seen trades for power-hitting MLB veterans Marcell Ozuna and Paul Goldschmidt, as well as the free agent signings of veteran outfielder Dexter Fowler and a quartet of well-established thirtysomething MLB relievers.
Those seven MLB veterans have so far combined for 13 seasons wearing the Birds on the Bat, and cost the Cardinals $143,000,000 — plus three high draft picks, plus four years of Luke Weaver (1.7 WAR in 2019), five years of Carson Kelly (1.9 WAR), six years of Zac Gallen (2.5 WAR), and six of Sandy Alcantara (2.9 WAR).
For that $143,000,000, plus the three high draft picks, and the 21 years of what looks to be highly productive player control, the Cards have so far gotten 6.8 WAR worth of “veteran certainty.” As you no doubt noted, the four UN-certain NON-veterans produced 9 WAR in 2019 alone. And there’s 17 more seasons to go.
Ahh, but that’s not all. How about the “low-hanging” acquisitions of the past few years, the guys without MLB “veteran certainty” to their names? How have those turned out?
Low-hanging foreign imports Miles Mikolas and Seunghwan Oh have combined to cost the Cards just under $21M for four years of production. Just under $21M, and no draft picks, and no young talent. And in return the Birds got 5.9 WAR from the Lizard King and 2.6 more from the Final Boss. So, recapping. Low hangers, 8.5 WAR for under $21M. Veteran certainty, I can’t bear to type it again.
The Cards should get back to what they do right. Get back to the First Principles that have led them to so much success during the DeWitt years.
1) Develop from within, both bats & arms.
2) Make small shrewd free agent signings, and trades when needed.
3) Retain your stars and superstars when possible.What is not and should never be on that list, is blocking very good internal options with merely above average hitters and pitchers. They let Kyle Lohse go via free agency, even though he was coming off a real fine season, because they had pitchers in the pipeline. They let Lance Lynn* go, even though he was still good, and well-liked, because they had pitchers in the pipeline.
And now they should let Marcell Ozuna go. Because there isn’t a team in the majors with as much young outfield talent as the Cardinals. The organizational depth chart is literally littered with guys who’ve (in various sample sizes) dominated Triple-A or the majors already. Are they all future stars? Nope, not at all. And neither is Marcell Ozuna. Some baby birds of course are more prepared than others for a fulltime MLB role — but in my unhumble opinion there is nearly zero chance that Ozuna is significantly better at the plate than all of them right now. And Ozuna needs to be significantly better than all of them with the bat, because they’re pretty much all faster afield with stronger throwing arms than Harvey Wallclimber.
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*(Lance Lynn is obviously a special case, as I think the Cards would’ve happily kept him if he’d have signed for $12M for one season, or $10M a year for three years. But when he turned free agent, of course nobody thought he’d be available at those prices, or even close. Good heavens, Zach Wheeler just got $120M with much the lesser resume than Lance had.)
As I promised yesterday…
Worried that top prospect Dylan Carlson may not be in the #stlcards Opening Day lineup? Perhaps something can be learned from Tommy Edman's situation one year ago. (free) https://t.co/hEimPtyui0 pic.twitter.com/j5ePALBMPH
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 4, 2020
In the meantime, as difficult as it is for some, please just be patient.
Now you’re asking for something impossible, Brian. 😂
Two vultures sitting on a fence.
Vulture 1. “We have been sitting here a long time but we have to be patient.”
Vulture 2. “Patience my arse. Let’s go out and kill something.”
We see that attitude on a lot of baseball sites……LOL
The best part about it is that Vulture 2 doesn’t own a mirror so does not understand that he is a scavenger and doesn’t kill his own food… 😉
That’s what makes it funny Brian – no patience.
Now for the young and old bulls:
Young bull standing on a hill with an old bull and looking over a pasture down below with more than a few nice cows.
Young bull: “Lets run down there and have us a nice cow.”Old bull: “Lets WALK down there and have us all those nice cows.”
Trying to tie that one into baseball. Sorta like the Yankees and free agents I guess.
Like I have said before I think the Cardinals tend to be a little too passive when it comes to trades and free agency but tend to be overly aggressive when it comes to promoting prospects. I see absolutely zero reason for Carlson to start the season in St. Louis unless he hits around .400 in spring training.
My goodness let’s allow him to have some time at AAA. Is that too much to ask? Meanwhile we have a half dozen OF’s that deserve a chance to show what they can do in St. Louis. They can’t do that sitting on the bench. We need to see what we have in O’Neill, Thomas, Arozarena, and Williams before we turn the reins over to Bader. Not to mention Fowler, Bader, JMart, and Edman we obviously have a crowded OF.
Albert Pujols had a blistering spring training in 2001 and made the team ahead of schedule but guys like that don’t come around often. Let’s give Carlson a chance to play everyday in Memphis a little while. I wouldn’t promote him before June 1 at the earliest.
I don’t always agree with the FO but I certainly don’t pay attention to the reactionary twitter crowd. Those folks wouldn’t survive too long on this board because they have no idea what they are talking about.
The Cards should get back to what they do right. Get back to the First Principles that have led them to so much success during the DeWitt years.
1) Develop from within, both bats & arms.
2) Make small shrewd free agent signings, and trades when needed.
3) Retain your stars and superstars when possible.Bob, I agree with your entire post. It was well written as usual.
The only thing I would add to the formula you stated is:
4. Every so often go big with a trade or free agent signing.
I am not talking about every year like twitterverse but I am thinking at least once every 5 years go out and do what it takes to get one of the top 10 players in the game, if possible. Like you stated the bread and butter for the Cardinals is to build from within, add some shrewd low hanging fruit, and re-sign your top players. That is a good way to build a 90 win team, however, to build a 95 win team I think you have to go big once in awhile. The Cardinals have the resources to do it. But when we flex the payroll muscle it needs to be on a top 10 player instead of middling guys like Fowler and Cecil.
According to twitterverse the last few years we should currently have on the team: David Price, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Anthony Rendon, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Gerrit Cole, and Nolan Arenado.
Obviously that isn’t reasonable but every once in awhile we need to get a player like that. A top 10 player in MLB. Does Goldy fit that category? He did at one time but probably not any longer. We need to find an elite player in their prime to supplement our stellar work developing internal players.
I should also add that the Cardinals need to learn when to walk away from internal players. I like loyalty to a certain degree but I don’t believe in lifetime achievement awards.
That’s what makes it funny Brian – no patience.
How about praying to God “please give me patience . . . and please grant it now.”
I would be very surprised to see Carlson go North with the Cards. He still needs time at AAA and I don’t see why he should be rushed. Instead I’d rather like to see him get ample AAA ABs and only come to the Cards when he is ready to be a starter.
I believe the team will give O’Neill every chance to become the starting LFer. He is the only one in the line of young outfielders that can be placed in the cleanup spot, a spot which we are looking for. Thomas would be next with improvement in the power dept.
I say this with hopes that Edman secures a regular everyday position and that Arozarena gets every opportunity to create more spark and excitement. And I don’t think that Spring Training will determine who gets what spot. Bader hasn’t convinced me that he should be considered the starting CFer. We’ll see if he worked hard enough to become that guy. I dare say that Fowler….. well I don’t want to bore you all.
We need to see what we have in O’Neill, Thomas, Arozarena, and Williams before we turn the reins over to Bader.
I didn’t catch my typo until after time has passed on the ability to edit but I was referring to Carlson.
Euro, your comment caused me to laugh out loud!
I do want to point out that it is not just the Twitter reactionaries. Here are some other examples. Mozeliak recently compared Carlson to Pujols. That fanned the anticipation flames just a tad. Only yesterday, The Athletic wrote that Carlson “has nothing to prove” in the minors. The only reason he should not make the team is to hold down his service time, and the Cardinals should do that. But in doing so, the team should be forthcoming about it. There are probably a number of other examples – and many more are going to appear in the almost three months until the opening roster is set.
As a prospect guy, it is an odd place to be in, trying to moderate anticipation of the arrival of a top prospect, but I fear it is going to get out of hand and put a lot of extra pressure on Carlson.
As a closing reminder, I really value the discussion here, as it gives me inspiration for articles. Many times, I have banged out a reply here, but before I hit enter, I re-read it and change my mind. I cut it out and paste it into the start of a new article! So, you all score an assist!
I am looking at Carlson’s minor league stats – other than 2019. I see a bunch of .240 averages.
WHAT MAKES ANYBODY THINK HE IS THE 2ND COMING HERE?????????
r/Rat
I am looking at Carlson’s minor league stats – other than 2019. I see a bunch of .240 averages.
WHAT MAKES ANYBODY THINK HE IS THE 2ND COMING HERE?????????
r/Rat
He was extremely young in those “.240” years, and playing in some of the worst hitting environments in the minors.
Also, batting average is far from the only way a player can add value to a team.
<Also, batting average is far from the only way a player can add value to a team. >
Amen to that and especially in the case of Edman who plays a variety of positions equally well, is a switch hitter equally well (I think) and seems to excel at defense. Yes, he could have a down year in 2020 but it would only be like a lot of those guys had in 2019 and they still got to the NLCS.
I agree with some of this article but not all of it. I think it is true that we gave JMart and Munoz too many AB’s last year but the writer seems to gloss over the fact that O’Neill and Thomas couldn’t stay healthy which cost them great opportunities.
I read that article also and was going to post it here, but it mostly falls on deaf ears. GO DEXTER! BRING BACK THE WALL CLIMBER!
The article also glosses over Edman’s significant offensive contributions. I didn’t like him playing the outfield regularly, but I get why they wanted to keep his bat in the lineup. It was an understandable tradeoff, though I admit I wanted to see more of Thomas.
We all should already know why the other outfielders got a chance in the second half. First, Ozuna missed a month. Then Carpenter got hurt, was ineffective after returning and was finally benched. Bader was shipped off to Memphis. That allowed Edman to return to third and opened up another spot in the OF. Martinez’ performance dropped off, leading to less playing time for him. Not too complicated, as I see it.
Munoz made a whopping nine starts in the outfield all last season and only finished five of those games. That is negligible in terms of blocking anyone. Anyone on the roster needs to get a chance to start now and then, though they should have rested DeJong more and played Munoz there.
Clearly there are too many outfielders when everyone is healthy. We knew that. I am not sure, however, that re-engineering playing time to optimize last year’s results this year is going to provide the answers.
P.S. I do like the part he tacked on at the end. Great idea… 🙂
“Addendum: What about Carlson, you might ask? When considering Carlson’s role for 2020, might I suggest to the Cardinals that they give the young prospect the same treatment they gave Edman in 2019.”
I have always liked Carlsons approach. Patience, now mixed with occasional aggresiveness in the right situations. And he has been younger than league average. He also does not strike out much. He has improved similarly to Mercado did, although he did not have to switch positions.
On KMOX this morning, Mo was asked to comment about Carlson and Arozarena. He did not answer until he first reminded the interviewer about O’Neill and Thomas.
#STLCards President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak with @Ackerman1120 talking about hitting philosophy, players in Flordia, Carlos Martinez, Dylan Carlson and more.https://t.co/gW5E24crdQ
— KMOX Sports (@KMOXSports) January 5, 2020
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