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The earliest it would make sense to engage Flaherty would be next winter after the CBA is finalized and revenues are back on the upswing. Next winter I would offer him 5 yrs/$100M. That would be be a big boost for him his last two years of arbitration and would buy out three years of free agency, still leaving him young enough for another big deal at age 31.
If you look at all these arb players settling with clubs for next season, none have signed multi-year extensions, and that’s unusual. So far it’s all one year settlements. There are 13 unsigned players going to hearings, but that’s a pick one choice of one year salaries.
If you look at the most recent mlb extensions they are for FA’s-to-be. Gurriel, Harrison, Betts, Goldschmidt, Abreu after accepting his FA Q-offer.
Yelich and Aroldis Chapman had both exceeded 6 service years when their clubs extended them. Yelich was reported on 3-6-2020, Chapman on 11-2-2019.
Yoan Moncada is the last player I can find that was extended before reaching his walk year, with 2+ yrs service, his extension was reported on 3-6-2020, same as Yelich.
Marco Gonzales, Muncy, Chris Taylor, Benintendi, Ahmed, Suter and Bummer were all signed to multi-year deals in Feb. of 2020.
Since 3-6-2020 mlb has not extended a player (edit-multi yr extension) that wasn’t a FA-to-be, pre-Covid if you will. If you can find one, point him out plz.
jj, I had been thinking about that, but hadn’t had the time to check the data. That long term deals have not been signed and considering why would have been a much better article, IMO.
I suspect there are at least three reasons for the lack of those moves. One is the overall down market. Another is the fact these players are younger, pre-peak age, with a better chance to have a bigger year in a regular 2021 season than in the shortened and interrupted 2020. That could mean more money in the future.
The other I can think of is the uncertainty of the new CBA. Players want to fight for better terms for arbitration and free agency in the next agreement, so they are thinking, “Why potentially limit my options now?”
So, I am not surprised at all.
P.S. Even if everything goes right in the labor negotiations, which seems a long shot, the soonest the new CBA would go into effect is 12/16/21, I believe. I am not sure about how that change would affect the 2021-2022 market, which would be in midstream.
But my main point is that in this October and November, the situation may not be any clearer than today regarding long term commitments. My guess is that if it still relevant, an offer might be presented in spring 2022, but maybe no sooner.
(Having said all this, I still doubt that Jack would sign early at any time under any rules – unless the deal was truly record-breaking and frankly, I don’t see the Cardinals ever being the team to set the high water mark in the market.)
With jj’s approval, I packaged his excellent arbitration comps for Flaherty into an article.
Jack Flaherty is The Cardinal Nation’s Projected Arbitration Winner
Brad Keller was a nice find by KC after being an 8th round pick by ARI, selected in the rule5 by CIN and traded the same day to KC for a PTBNL or cash.
Thanks for the hat-tip boss 🙂
That was fine with, jj. I think Jack will probably win, too.
Agreed with Brian that it would probably take a historic number to get Jack to sign an extension. Depending on how next year goes, I might be interested in seeing the Cards do just that.
Hat tip to JJ and Brian for putting forth those numbers. That is good info.
MLBTR had predicted $2.8 for Jack. They are going to miss that one by quite a bit comparatively speaking.
The jury is now deliberating…
Jack Flaherty had his arbitration hearing Friday but may not hear the result for days. Other top 1st-year eligible starters Walker Buehler, Mike Soroka and perhaps Ryan Yarborough r expected to have hearings this week, and results r held to avoid having them affect other cases.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 8, 2021
Ohtani gets a two year extension buying out his arb1 and arb2 seasons. The first multi-year extension this winter of a player under club control, that I’m aware.
Flaherty dropped 40 slots in this year’s MLB.tv top 100 players list. From 28 last year to 68 this year. His hearing is tomorrow, right?
Flaherty got knocked for his problem with Milwaukee. I expect he will be top 5 in the Cy Young voting again in 2021.
The above tweet says his hearing is already over and his results will be back soon. I would think he will win the hearing.
I read somewhere that results of hearings are being held back until the process is completed on all cases. Maybe speculation but makes some sense too.
Buehler gets a multi-year on his super2 and arb1 seasons.
Yep, also noted in the tweet cited above. Not all cases necessarily, but at least the rulings from each of the three arb classes will be divulged together.
As we predicted…
Source: Jack Flaherty won his arbitration case over the St. Louis Cardinals. He will make $3.9 million.
— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) February 13, 2021
For those waiting for the extension news, you can stop holding your breath now…
— Jack Flaherty (@jflare_) February 13, 2021
Next winter would be more likely for a Flaherty extension than this winter, but even then, the odds would be relatively small.
As I posted back on January 17:
The earliest it would make sense to engage Flaherty would be next winter after the CBA is finalized and revenues are back on the upswing. Next winter I would offer him 5 yrs/$100M. That would be be a big boost for him his last two years of arbitration and would buy out three years of free agency, still leaving him young enough for another big deal at age 31.
Eileen Flaherty the new Bengie/Jose Molina? Lol
@Jack9Flaherty Me too💗 others first. Mama Flare🌸
— Eileen Flaherty (@JackandGradyMom) February 13, 2021
I’d still open up the checkbook if he’s good this year and see what it takes to keep him in St Louis. Probably won’t happen but you never know.
Mama looks pretty hot to me.
Mspaid in earrings and an evening dress would look hot to you these days. Getting ready for a little Jasper tournament hoops, Rat?
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