Hosmer/Moustakas free agents thread

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  • #40268
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    Which one suits your need better?

    Ideally I dont want either. Im fine with carpenter at first.

    #40270
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    Hosmer and his every-other-year act is not a better option for this team than Carpenter at 1B. Carpenter showed his floor last year, and was awfully good, even if counting stat people want to slam his batting average. Carpenter’s contract is ideal (2 years, $30 million with a team option for a 3rd year). Hosmer would require something much more than that.

    Moustakas shouldn’t even be considered.

    People who slam the Fowler contract shouldn’t want any part of either of these guys, if they truly understood why they dislike the Fowler deal and had consistent application of thought.

    Fowler provides lineup versatility and a guy who has always gotten on base. He’s not the horror show some of you make him out to be.

    The offense was fine last year, and adding Ozuna should help. I do have concerns about Gyorko’s alarming inconsistency, and an upgrade at 3B would be nice, but isn’t necessary. I expect Yadi to regress because of age, and DeJong will probably regress a little, but that is far from a guarantee. I know that this is generally a place to bash Wong, but I think we saw Wong settle in to what he is going to be offensively for this team (high OBP with less pop than he showed early in his time in St. Louis and a good baserunner). And he should see improved defense because he has always been far better than he showed last year. His contract is also good for a young, 3(ish) WAR player. Replacing good contracts with bad ones is not where we need to be heading.

    If we have money/resources to spend, spend them on pitching and/or a major upgrade at 3B (Donaldson or Machado). Don’t waste your time by spending large amounts of assets to marginally improve somewhere. That is what the Fowler signing ended up being, although you’d be lying if you said we were flush with fantastic outfield options when the signing was made.

    #40271
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    Agreed believe it or not.

    Btw 2.2 WAR in center is less in left or right. 1.5-1.8 or so… Or barely better than grichuk was last year.

    #40272
    AvatarNJ315
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    Forget Machado they won’t give him the contract he will command. Carp best days are behind him he is fragile and a liability anywhere but first. You can get Donaldson for one year but then how much will it take to sign him at age 33? If you think the offense was fine and that Ozuna is all that is needed you are wrong. Keep the Carp’s, Goyrko’s, Grichuck’s and good but not good enough is what you will get. This team is average at best now with Ozuna maybe average.

    #40275
    Avatarmudville
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    If the bullpen was effective, last year’s team would have won at least 10 more games than they did. Nobody imagined that Cecil, Broxton, Siegrist, Rosenthal, and Oh would underperform the way they did. Peralta essentially quitting before his contract was fullfilled, and Wainwright’s demise probably cost us another five games. I’d love to have Donaldson for a fair price in prospects and dollars. But if that isn’t possible, then I’m okay with Gyorko at 3B. What I, for one, don’t want to do is throw common sense out the window, and just pay whatever price is demanded in prospects and dollars. The Cardinals have their scouting reports, their statistical analyses, and they have all kinds of other data to determine a player’s worth. If we can’t get the player for what he’s actually worth going forward, we should just move on.

    #40276
    AvatarNJ315
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    This team as presently constructed (12/21/17). Cannot compete with the Cubs, Dodgers, Nats in the NL. Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros are way better in the AL. This team can compete for a wildcard, maybe. You mentioned the things that did not go their way but are you sure Pham and DeJong will give the same production? is Yadi going to stay healthy and keep producing with the same heavy workload? Is Ozuna enough improvement? is Waino a sure thing? will Martinez be more consistent? Gyorko’s second half was pretty bad. Carp is fragile and a year older. So all the things you mentioned may improve but the team still has a ton of questions marks. But keep the same team and hope all that was wrong last year will be right and all that went right will stay the same or better.

    #40278
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    mud, I am curious why Wainwright faced his demise, but you believe Peralta “quit”. Guys just drop off in performance as they age. It cannot be reversed by willpower and positive thinking or Waino would have won the 2017 Cy Young Award. It is a fact of life.

    If Peralta was a quitter, he would have taken his guaranteed salary from the Cardinals and gone home. Instead, even at age 35 with 15 years of MLB experience, he agreed to go to Triple-A Pawtucket for no more money, just to try to work his way back to the majors. That sure does not look like the acts of a “quitter” to me.

    On your broader point, every team every year has players who far exceed expectations and others who disappoint. I see no way to reasonably gauge the 2017 Cardinals being many games unluckier than others. (There was a fair amount of community discussion around this general subject in the Matheny thread.)

    Go back to the projections before the season. The reality of 83 wins was much closer to the consensus than the 98 wins (83+15 blown) you are throwing out there.

    #40281
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I am not pro-Moustakas or anti-Gyorko in any way. I just happened to be looking at stats and noticed this.

    After his rookie year, covering his two prior seasons to joining the Cards, Jedd Gyorko’s total bWAR was 0.2. Why acquire a mediocre guy like that, who had a flash in the pan season three years before? Somebody must have known more. Probably wasn’t us, though.

    #40286
    AvatarKylMss
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    I do not believe Moustakas lines up well with the Cardinals. First, he’s going to be expensive. Second, Donaldson and Machado will both be free agents next offseason and the Cardinals clearly have an interest. Why block 3B with Moustakas for multi-years when you could just as easily fill that position with an equally effective player. Third, the Cardinals already have a cheaper, right-handed version of Moustakas playing in Triple-A – Patrick Wisdom. In fact, Wisdom might be a better defender based on reports. They both play a solid 3B, hit their fair share of HR and strikeout way too much. The only difference is Wisdom hits right-handed and costs significantly less.

    #40287
    AvatarNJ315
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    The might be in on Donaldson but no way on Machado. They won’t give him the years of money he will command and they shouldn’t. Donaldson is older so he will ask for less years.

    #40288
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    The only difference is that two weeks ago, all 29 of the other MLB teams passed on Wisdom for the low price of just $50,000, half of which they could reclaim if he flopped. Other than that teeny, tiny difference, he is same as Moustakas.

    Or not.

    #40289
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Brian, old habits die hard. The rule 5 pick cost is now $100k

    #40291
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Got me! The increase in price did not slow down the number of players taken. Still a bargain lottery ticket!

    #40297
    AvatarKylMss
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    Obviously, Wisdom is not on the same level as Moustakas. I am not calling for Wisdom to start for the Cardinals on opening day. My point is, why commit 4-5 years and likely around $70 million for player who is not a clear upgrade to the roster. I would just assume save the money and let Gyorko continue playing there and maybe see if Wisdom figured something out at 26. Then allow yourself some flexibility to go after Donaldson or Machado in the off season. I just do not think Moustakas is the type of player that will put the Cardinals roster in a position to compete for championships.

    As far as next off season, I think the Cardinals will be more than willing to throw money at Machado. They might get outbid, but they have been willing to pay players. I have been critical of the Cardinals in the past as well, but I do not believe them to be overly cheap. They were willing to pay Price and Heyward, and they were willing to take on a giant portion of Stanton’s contract. I think they are willing to go to that $300 million range for Machado. The question is how much will another team be willing to offer?

    #40298
    AvatarLoganAlpha30X7
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    Next offseason we could have a new manager and gm and all so who knows how we’ll be…

    #40304
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    Some of you flat out do not realize how much contracts are skyrocketing and the cost of obtaining talent isn’t cheap. I am amused and concerned by some of the comments posted here.

    Here’s a question to the “Dump Fowler” people: How would suppose the Cards dump him? Through trades? Kinda hard to do when the guy has a no trade clause! Release him? Yes, lets eat the entirety of his contract (insert sarcasm).

    Furthermore, your advocating dumping a guy who is a better player overall for Hosmer/Moose which is beyond comprehension. Calling Fowler a middling player but praising Hosmer/Moose makes the entirety of your argument moot.

    #40324
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    So Card fans want to get back to the post-season in ’18 somehow… and they want it bad. Even if it means a one-game win or go home game.

    If you want to improve this team going forward, and get better players, why look everywhere but at Fowler. You want him to hold on to a position where a big improvement can be made to actually make this team better. Everyone is eyeballing 1B/3B as the positions to improve, when an OF spot could be a difference maker now and going forward… not just for one season.

    Fowler isn’t the “as advertised” player to help us improve. He isn’t just going to learn to play the OF now. Most knew it was a terrible contract to begin with… DF has proven that in ’17. Let the FO figure out how to dump Fowler. They are responsible for giving him a contract that could hurt this team for 4 more seasons and at a crazy rate. Just do it now.

    #40325
    AvatarCardinals2016
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    I don’t see the front office giving up on Fowler. I think the message they sent when they visited him in Las Vegas was that his defense was terrible, so they are moving him out of CF.

    And if his defense is terrible again, he will be riding pine as a 4th OF until he accepts a trade. The earliest they will move on from Fowler is next year.

    #40328
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Dexter might not be too unhappy on the bench. He’s got his big contract after all.

    #40346
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Every thread seems to include comments about how Fowler is garbage.

    Let’s look at some data. Fowler came off the DL for the second time on August 7. From then until the end of the season, over the final two months, his OPS was .993. .993! That was better than EVERYONE on the team during that time, including Pham, DeJong and Martinez, a time that includes when the latter was named the NL September Rookie of the Month.

    Yes, Fowler’s defense needs to improve to prior levels, but we have zero data on him in the corners. So, let’s see how it goes as he reports to camp hopefully healthy and ready to go.

    In the meantime, let’s be balanced about him, please.

    #40348
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    Free

    Brian..

    1.8 WAR last year and he is moving to a position where it takes more to get better comparisons. Also, defense won’t get any better, just have something different to compare to… Either way true value is HARDER to accumulate at a corner than in center.

    Balanced is one thing. Balance requires that you look at alternatives and compare. The number of alternatives at corners is significantly higher and thus his contract is significantly stupider regardless of any patience you want to show.

    Trying to be patient and justify only puts off the inevitable.

    2.2 WAR career average in center. That’s a decade of stats for backup.
    Guess how bad that contract will look in right or left considering how awful it looked in center?

    #40355
    AvatarPadsFS
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    Brianp, 2.7 War on fangraphs, 3.5 War Average over the last three years, but continue to use bwar’s outdated defensive calculations and ‘career’ averages(2.2) rather than his performance over the last three years.

    #40358
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Fowler was hurt and tried to come back too soon. Instead of looking at the full year, why ignore the final two months when he raked? Because it does not support the “he is garbage” narrative.

    #40359
    AvatarPadsFS
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    Free

    I thought I was coming here to discuss mouse and hosmer. Moustakas wouldn’t replace Gyorko, he would replace Garcia or Voit, as Gyorko slides into a super-sub role. Hosmer would be similar, but I don’t like Carpenter moving around the diamond all year.

    Carpenter’s defensive is not good so I would rather have Gyorko bouncing around than Carpenter. Plus our 1B performance was 5th best in baseball last year and should equal that with the three top performers returning.

    #40361
    AvatarPadsFS
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    Our third base production was 17th best in baseball last year. Let’s improve where we have room to do so. Outfield is fine now with Ozuna. 1B is fine with Carpenter and Martinez.

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