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LACard – I’m with you. I put all 3 of McGreevey, Robberse, and Kloffenstein in the same place in my rankings because all 3 are fairly young with decent success in the upper minors but all 3 feel like #4 starters as their highest upside and Jake Woodford as their low end. So not a lot of variability. There just doesn’t seem to be enough impact coming from any of them to place them in the top 10.
Thanks to Bobby Reed’s compelling analysis, I’m starting to think that I need to elevate Bernal from where I had him at #14. I’m sticking with McGreevy for top prospect #8, but I’ll soon be punching Bernal’s ticket.
Michael McGreevy at #8 for me. Good floor, ceiling is a little more limited but we’ve seen the control artists before.
I did look at his numbers on baseball reference. I’m questioning what numbers you based your statement on.
Bling – yes, technically Wilking Rodriguez is eligible. But he’s like 34 or 35 years old so I’m abstaining from voting for him.
Sem Robberse in 2023 as a 21 year old:
AA – 4.93 IP/Start, 4.06 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 1.173 WHIP
AAA – 4.93 IP/Start, 4.84 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 1.783 WHIPHis first game pitched in AAA was also his first game in the Cardinals system after the trade. If you throw out that first game, here are his numbers for the final 7 games he pitched in.
4.57 IP/Start, 3.66 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 1.53 WHIP
In AA he allowed opponents the following slash: .213/.288/.386/.674 in 88.2 IP
In AAA in August in 5 games after the trade: .342/.469/.570/1.039 in 19.0 IP (<4IP/G)
In AAA in September in 3 games: .197/.290/.377/.667 in 16.1 IP (5.33IP/G)In September he had a 2.20 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 13.8 K/9
I like the trend Robberse was on.
I am sticking with Bernal, but the pack of pitchers mentioned above begins with Rajic. His one appearance I saw in Springfield, he followed Roby, who was electric. Roby’s line was marred by an over-matched hitter flailing his bat out hitting one down the opposite line.
Rajic was at least equally impressive. Upper 90’s heat, baffling breaking ball, perfect command.Graceffo, Roby, and Rajic are all front-end ceilings. McGreavey and Kloffenstien don’t have those arsenals. Robberse is a mystery to me.
Adding velocity over the winter could enhance and alter any of these young arms, but at times those first three have shown my eyes potential I never saw from McGreavy.
I love a movement guy like Kloffenstein. He may be the first to impact the big club if he makes the pen.Forsch31 thanks for making those points about Robberse. I remember he redeemed himself in his final appearances from his rough start.
9 for McGreevey / 3 for Bernal / 2 for Davis / 1 for Kloffenstein / 1 for Robberse
First, I’m very surprised that McGreevey got 9 of 16 votes at this stage. I don’t see what separates him clearly above Robberse/Kloffenstein and he doesn’t have near the upside of Bernal or Davis or Cho or even maybe Rajcic. It’s not that I think he’s bad or anything. I had him at 12 or 13. But it’s the will of the people here. We will see how this holds up to next year.
1. Winn
2. Saggese
3. Hence
4. Roby
5. Scott
6. Hjerpe
7. Graceffo
8. McGreeveyOk. I said in a post awhile back that we will start voting for 2 at a time after 8. We will count your first vote as 2 points and your second vote as 1 point.
For me, I’m going with 2 players who could rise fast on this list with a good ‘24 season.
#9 Davis
#10 BernalI will wait 48 hours on this next vote before counting votes due to the holiday. Happy Thanksgiving Cardinal Nation.
9. Davis
10. MautzI have Bernal a couple slots lower, but I admit I have sketchy info to work with. We know from our Contreras experience that a lot goes into the catcher position besides hitting, but that is really all I have to look at. Things are said and reported to the effect he looks pretty good behind the plate, but he is 19 years old in rookie ball, so what does that mean. Looking at his offense, he repeated in rookie ball at PB and his OPS dropped about 30 points from his first year at that level. Which is moving the wrong way. So that is why I am pumping the brakes on him a little bit.
Brycen is 2022’s 2nd rounder. A mature college guy who is sort of a McGreevy type pick, I think. He’s a lefty and went 104 IP which is a lot for low A. 3.98 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 10 K/0, 2.56 K/BB. His ERA was lower until late in the season when he seems to have worn down. He didn’t see game action his draft year, having already thrown a lot in college that year. He seems to have durability going for him. He is 22 years old so will need to move along in the system, but his first year in pro competition went well. On the negative side, he doesn’t have high octane stuff and there is some risk of eventual move to the pen. His draft pedigree and the so far, so good, has him up on my list pending next year’s results at Peoria. Admitedly, there are a pretty large handful of guys who could slot in here.
9. Bernal
10. RajcicThere’s a lot to like about Max Rajcic’s splits in 2023. With his innings divided equally across both levels of full season A-ball, Max allowed a paltry .574 OPS (.217/.273/.301). Some splits:
Home .553
Road .592Righty bats .576
Lefty bats .572Bases empty .584
Runners on .557Younger hitters .570
Older opponents .578So we see that although his 2023 home parks favored pitchers in general, Rajcic didn’t personally get much in the way of an advantage. And the way he handled rights and lefts equally well was extremely encouraging also.
Much as I love Tink Hence, it wouldn’t shock me if Max Rajcic were the club’s #1 pitching prospect a year from now. (I’m not sure it was Rajcic you saw pitch for Springfield, Nigel. Logan Gragg, maybe? He had a long outing in relief of Roby in late August where he was mighty effective.)
9. Bernal
10. RajcicRajcic’s 1.01 WHIP was the lowest amongst the pitchers I profiled. What he excels at is avoiding the free pass. His 1.97 BB/9 was by far the lowest in the system. Even though his K/9 was a disappointing 8.99 (only beating Graceffo & McGreevy), he had the second best K:BB ratio thanks to his frugality with the free pass. His 2.48 ERA was the third best of the top pitchers, trailing only Ian Bedell, who is two years older and finished at the same level, and Zack Showalter, who only pitched 31.1 innings. Rajcic pitched the fourth most innings.
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