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Rat –
They can’t go into 2021 without adding to the offense. They came in 30th out of 30 teams in home runs, doubles, and total bases.In BW’s member forum write up on 3 of the 11 eligible players for the playoffs who had a decent playoff series, he mentioned that Dylan Carlson was “perhaps unfairly deposited into the clean-up spot by a team desperate for offense”. That’s the best definition I’ve heard going into a discussion regarding this team’s off season needs. It’s a team desperate for offense.
I think that most Card fans are resigned to the FO’s plans to target 2022 as the season that they can return to a tier 1 team. The players that have bloated the budget for the past few years will be gone. So with that in mind…. why look to spend serious $$$ on an older player that will help in ’21?? They will likely look for a cheaper OF that will help for the ’22 target and give the OF guys we have now some stiffer competition. The $$$ we save can be used to keep who we have now.
By ’22 we should have an influx of young talent that should attain their potential by then Gorman-Liberatore-Herrera-Thompson-Oviedo-Montero et al, plus the ’20 rookies Carlson-Cabrera-Knizner-Fernandez-Woodford-Whitley will have ’21 to get some more experience under their belt.
There will be a good mix of vets like Goldschmidt-DeJong-Flaherty-Edman-Kim?-Mikolas and the resigned Wong. Of course things will change in the next two years. Some of those younger players will rise to the top and give the team serious depth. Some will disappoint but there are a lot of names that I presented above to cover for that inevitability.
I would be surprised to see much change for ’21 because the organization has ’22 in its sight. Until then the Cards should stay competitive enough to challenge for the division. All of this seems reasonable to me… I hope that the FO follows through. Are we on-board with this?
I’m not on board with that at all. There could be ample opportunities via the trade and/or FA routes to improve the offense of this team for 2021, and stay within the payroll budget.
Also, 14, you mention that Gorman, Herrera, Montero, and Knizner are in the wings. The problem is in the outfield, for the nauseous, umteenth time. If O’Neill, Bader, Thomas, and Williams don’t work out, you don’t just have a 2021 or 2022 problem. You have a problem for years to come. We need a Walker, Beltran, Holliday type of addition. Sooner than later.
Ny said:
I would be surprised to see much change for ’21 because the organization has ’22 in its sight.
Your post has many well thought out points. My question is about the above assertion you made, as it is absolutely crucial.
Has Mr. DeWitt, Mo, Girsch or anyone else stated that the organization has 2022 in sight? I haven’t seen that, but if I missed it, I missed something really important.
bccran, if the market takes a 25% drop, i’d call that % the outlier of possible FA salary reductions, but I do believe it’s a possible scenario. The owners are focused on their losses and the higher end salaries of FA’s could get hit the hardest.
In a normal offseason Brantley maintains his AAV, or even gets a slight raise, based on his production during his last contract. This winter won’t be normal.
Brantley is already having a very good postseason and if he winds up with any kind of series MVP award, his stock falls even less. If he falls flat in another series or even two, plus a depressed FA market, your salary scenario climbs back as possible.
CLE did not offer Brantley a Q-offer, if HOU does, that could also depress Brantleys AAV. just thoughts.
Ny, I believe your summary is on point. As Brian mentioned the front office has not publicly stated thye are looking to 2022 to move back into contention but why would they say that? They don’t want to publicly waive the white flag on 2021 and suppress fan interest while we are already in a challenging economic environment. But looking at it logically 2021 should be used as a bridge year with incremental improvements then 2022 should be our big splash year.
Now, to play devil’s advocate with what I just wrote above, if the Cardinals were able to shed some payroll this winter by moving some contracts like Miller, CMart, Wong, etc….would George Springer be the guy they need?
jj said:
The owners are focused on their losses and the higher end salaries of FA’s could get hit the hardest.
IMO, this is yes and no. The losses will surely impact the market, but my guess is just the opposite of yours. I think the big names will still get the big money, but the middle and lower-tier will feel the sting.
In support, I offer Mookie Betts, who signed a 12-year, $365 MM contract in late July, long after the losses were understood and long before he ever reached free agency.
gscottar, I read that Springer column, but I didn’t need an article to tell me that it would be a great idea for him to be a Cardinal. My issue was that it hardly acknowledged the biggest problem of all – outbidding the rest of the market to get him. Without a realistic answer for that, it is just column fodder, another pipe dream like Harper, Machado and all the rest. Fans will get all worked up over something that is highly unlikely to ever happen.
gscottar said:
As Brian mentioned the front office has not publicly stated thye are looking to 2022 to move back into contention but why would they say that? They don’t want to publicly waive the white flag on 2021 and suppress fan interest while we are already in a challenging economic environment.
Fair observation. We are all just guessing, but what caught my eye was that Ny’s statement seemed definitive. The reality is that even the Cardinals themselves may not know yet. Their actions (or lack of them) will eventually tell the story. But it may take into the spring to fully answer it. In the meantime, a segment of the fan base will probably burst at its seams.
It will be interesting to see who they get, but even more interesting to see what they do with Yadi, Waino, Wong, the Millers, Carlos, etc.
This is one J.P. Hill’s (VEB) posted yesterday opinion and it somewhat follows what my thoughts are above.
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/10/10/21510336/budgeting-ideals-realities-and-patience
This article doesn’t get into 2022 but you can read between the lines. If the Cards take on an outsider it will likely be a younger and cheaper OF with a decent amount of potential.
In answering some quires concerning how the FO will deal with this situation… of course it won’t be put out there for all to hear. Again… you have to read between the lines. And my thoughts are my take of what the aim of the FO will be going forward.
Ooops…. I see just now that gscottar posted this link yesterday. Sorry gs. But it is a good read even if you don’t agree with it.
Anne Rogers (MLB.com) wrote about how she believe things will shake out for the offseason. Its another thought provoking article that takes into account how the roster crunch will shake out.
https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/cardinals-2020-2021-offseason-faq
He didn’t mention anything about trading Carlos and perhaps having a team take on at least part of Miller’s blotted salary.
Anne hit the nail on the head about any possible off season moves
Yep, I’m with Anne & Cranny here too.
Okay: It’s time to stop messing around.
We need money to acquire players
Junior will not raise the payroll to 200 million (Can’t say I blame him)
There are other ways.
Trade for Arenado and as part of the trade that would include Gorman, O’neill and two young pitchers, the Cardinals pay for all of Arenado’s salary after he waives the opt out clause.
In the deal the Rockies take on Carpenter and Fowler for just one year.Savings:
Carpenter 18.5
Fowler 16.5
Molina 20 (let him walk)
Wong 10.25 (buy him out)
Wainwright 10 (5 plus another 5 for incentives)
Weiters 2
Miller B. 2
Mattinez 11.7 (Someone will take him for two years)
90.95 million dollars to spend
35 for Arenado
55 left to sign Sprnger and Brantley You could do that or come very close. They are good but not TroutLineup
Springer left
Edman second
Arenado third
Goldschmidt first
Brantley right
Carlson center
DeJong ss
Knizer catcherNow you can go to opening day with a lineup that is worth having.
Junior…I hope you are reading this
You’re welcome everyone.Anne hit the nail on the head about any possible off season moves – trade arm(s) for bat(s).
Losing Hudson and having major question marks with almost every other pitcher means that the pitching staff could quickly be thinned out. Do you trust the same folks who traded two great young arms in Gallen and Alcantara for a mediocre player like Ozuna to make the right trade again?
Do you trust the same outfit whose biggest free agent signings in the last 5 years were Mike Leake, Dexter Fowler and Brett Cecil to make a good call on signing a risky veteran player?
Ozuna had injuries unfortunately that zapped his power but now healthy he’s back to form as he was with Marlins in 2017. Had he not fractured his fingers last year he was on track to hit 35-40 homers.
I’m surprised to see you call O’Neill and Bader budding All Stars cranny.
Ozuna was a 2.49 fWAR/650 for stl by BR, 2.93/650 by fangrahs, 2.15/650 by BP and 2.49/650 by retrosheet.
average 2.51/650 as a Cardinal, 2.0 being average. So yes, your mediocre evaluation of Ozuna is fair, although slightly above mediocre is more accurate.
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