Cardinals’ Off-season Needs

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  • #143996
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    CC asked:

    Brian, why would you assume the continuation of 28 man rosters but dont assume the continuation of the NL DH?

    I am not assuming either. I was being the most conservative I could be in the example to explain why the Cards seem to have enough pitching without Waino even if the rosters remain large.

    P.S. The roster size and the DH are entirely separate issues. The AL went for decades with a DH with 25-man rosters. The rosters were 28 because of COVID, not the DH.

    #144005
    forsch31
    Participant

    Free

    If the thought about Waino retiring is true, that means the Cardinals have another $5 million to work with this off-season. However, that also puts another hole in our starting rotation. It also means we will not have as many pitchers available for trade as we would need the depth.

    #144009
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    forsch, check out the prior page. I listed 22 MLB-tested pitchers without Waino who are currently on the roster. That includes nine potential starters. With a 26-man roster next season, they would need 13 of the 22.

    Point being there is a lot of depth, probably enough to make a trade. Further, who is to say if a trade partner would not be more interested in prospects such as Thompson or Liberatore than established MLB pitchers? The Cardinals got Ozuna without giving up any established MLB pitchers, for example.

    #144012
    forsch31
    Participant

    Free

    I saw that. It shows what my gut tells me: there is enough SP depth for next year. My head tells me to be cautious. Flaherty and Kim are my only 2 cemented starters. CMart and Reyes are erratic. Ponce, Woodford and Gomber are more back end starters than front end starters. Mikolas is still injured until he proves healthy, IMO. Oviedo is someone I really like but could use a little more seasoning.

    #144017
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Every pitcher has concerns. Most MLB teams would die to have as much pitching depth as the Cardinals. The building of pitching experience levels is one small benefit from the mess that was 2020. If you want the offense to get better externally for 2021, you may have to trade some pitching. Again, if it was my team, if Waino does not come back, I would direct the salary to offense.

    #144019
    forsch31
    Participant

    Free

    I would direct it to offense, as well. That’s why I want Turner. However, I know that brings up the payroll concern.

    #144023
    jj-cf-stl
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    Adam made 10 GS and using the multiplier for 58 games his pro-rated total comes to 27.931 GS in 2020. Will STL round up and pay for 28 GS?

    He locked in 8mil for 25 pro-rated starts. At 28 GS he collects another 2mil, 10mil total for 2020. It’s budget dollars spent, so I’d count his incentive pay, whatever that turns out to be, as reclaimed funds also, if he retires.

    #144061
    bccran
    Participant

    When you’re playing a little infielder in LF during the playoffs, you know you need a bat in the outfield. Go get Brantley.

    #144063
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Uh, Dylan Carlson was the left fielder in the Wild Card Series…

    #144065
    stlcard25
    Participant

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    When you’re playing a little infielder in LF during the playoffs, you know you need a bat in the outfield. Go get Brantley.

    Brantley will be making $18M+ a year for probably 3 years. That is probably affordable after next year but could it be properly back loaded? I’m not really convinced that Brantley is an upgrade over someone like Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario for one year. The extra pay and stench of the Houston Astros makes it even less appealing.

    #144067
    bccran
    Participant

    Oh, my goodness. Uh, the little infielder play LF prior to the playoffs then?

    #144072
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Brantley has always been a good player. He had two years wrecked by injury but has since put together three solid seasons. He made $16 MM in each of the last two seasons and will be 34 next year. If I was him, I would be looking for my last payday. In a normal year, he would get a better deal elsewhere than the Cards would probably offer.

    I still think a trade rather than free agency is how the Cardinals will go, but if the free agent market collapses, then things could change. The problem in waiting to see if that happens is missing the boat to improve the team in the interim. The fan base will go whacko if the calendar is flipped over to February, for example, and the team hasn’t done anything to address the offense. Trying to wait out the market would be a risky strategy.

    #144073
    bccran
    Participant

    Edman played LF down the stretch on the following dates –

    8/29
    8/30
    8/31
    9/1
    9/24
    9/25
    9/26

    He player RF on the following dates –

    9/2
    9/4
    9/5
    9/7
    9/8
    9/10
    9/11
    9/12
    9/14
    9/18

    Why was the little infielder playing corner OF when we have Carlson, O’Neill, Thomas, Williams, etc?

    We need an outfield bat (or 2). Sign Brantley.

    #144075
    bccran
    Participant

    The only reason I mention Brantley is because we don’t have to give up pitching depth to get him. He turns 34 in May, so he’s not going to get an expensive long term contract. He did make $16 million a year with the Astros over the past two years after coming to the Astros from the Indians, but I don’t think he’ll get close to that going forward. Maybe $12 a year for two or 3 years?

    #144078
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Why do you think Brantley would have to take a salary cut of 25% or more when his results have been consistently very good?

    His OPS+ the last three seasons:

    2018 – 124
    2019 – 126
    2020 – 126

    I get why you like him. I just don’t think he is going to be in the Cardinals price range, but as I mentioned, a lot will depend on how this free agent market shapes up after a year in which all teams likely lost money.

    My guess is that the Cards would rather trade pitching than take on a big contract and a payroll increase. Especially given the current financial uncertainty.

    #144086
    gscottar
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    The fan base will go whacko if the calendar is flipped over to February, for example, and the team hasn’t done anything to address the offense

    That begs the question, are the Cardinals making decisions independent of what the fan base wants or are they really worried about ticket sales in 2021 assuming fans are allowed back?

    #144088
    gscottar
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    My guess is that the Cards would rather trade pitching than take on a big contract and a payroll increase. Especially given the current financial uncertainty.

    They could trade expensive pitching (Miller and CMart) for mid level to high end prospects to free up payroll then sign someone like Pederson.

    Pederson would be much cheaper than Brantley. We would just have to hope that he would be the 2018 and 2019 versions.

    #144089
    bccran
    Participant

    Again, I don’t think Brantley at his age (and with the financial situation after this season) is going to cost more than about $12 million a year. There are a number of ways to afford him – trade Martinez, don’t retain Wong, try to get someone to take Miller for half his salary, etc.

    #144094
    mudville
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    I think Carlos Martinez is consistently being undervalued in this forum. Granted he wasn’t productive in 2019 and 2020. But he just turned 29 years old, and prior to 2019 he was a top of rotation pitcher who was well regarded throughout MLB. On top of that he’s only owed a paltry $11.7M for 2021, $17M for 2022, and $18M for 2023 plus a team can opt out after 2021 if they don’t want to keep him around. The Twins should be all over this guy for any prospect of theirs that St. Louis would ask for. The Marines would be better from having CMart, also. I would like to acquire a near ready top prospect, and let O’Neill start the year in left field, rather than another veteran who’s just hanging around to collect his last multi-million dollar contract before he calls if a career. No thanks to 34 yer old Michael Brantley.

    #144095
    bccran
    Participant

    You’d rather have O’Neill in LF than Brantley? Wow.

    #144099
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Seems the more likely 2021 static plan would be the same one used all three games in the playoffs. O’Neill was the fourth outfielder, and again, it was Carlson in left. So the real playing time tradeoff would likely be “new outfielder” vs. Bader (not O’Neill).

    #144100
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Yes. Show me somebody that has a future with the organization rather than a temp who has to be near the end of his prime. Then, get Lindor from the Indians…. and I’m not ruling out Arenado until it’s not a possibility.

    #144102
    bccran
    Participant

    Mudville –
    You seem to have forgotten about Larry Walker, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Beltran.

    BW –
    For 2021, I see Carlson in center and Fowler in right. And either Edman or a new player in left. Hopefully that new player is the quality of a Brantley.

    #144103
    Ratsbuddy
    Participant

    Free

    I dont believe we will see much change in the 2021 Cardinals. I dont really expect us to be a contender in 2021 either.

    Its 2022 that I feel we need to be concerned about. I really believe the transition from 2021 to 2022 will see alot of movement with regards to the current 40 man.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #144105
    mudville
    Participant

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    Come on, cranny! Michael Brantley in the same category as Walker, Berkman, and Beltran?

    Bader’s OPS is .779 for 2020, and that is up from all previous years. Bader is going to be our starting centerfielder. I’d like to see O’Neill as our fourth outfielder with Kirriloff or Kelenic or Rodriguez waiting in the wings along with Lane Thomas, Austin Dean, Justin Williams.

    I don’t really see us as a contender in 2021, except possibly for the NL Central.

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