Cardinals’ Off-season Needs

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  • #143806
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    If we got 2018 second half Carp next year, I’d be happy to pay the man for 2022 as well. I can’t really imagine that guy coming back though. If we can get 400 PAs of roughly average offense from him, that might be about the best we can hope for. That would keep the option from vesting and give us at least an OK option if we wanted to have a lefty heavy lineup out there sometimes.

    #143807
    Avatarforsch31
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    My only fear about Carpenter is that he continues to hit like he did this year and Schildt still gives him 400 PAs.

    #143808
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    There’s been little discussion of the pitching staff for next year on here. I agree in some sense that it could be strong, but we also saw in San Diego that looking great against the Reds and Cubs and Royals is different than pitching against elite, young bats. One person posted a few of the FA options here in this thread. I will recap my starting rotation thoughts from the trade rumors thread:

    Waino: Going to be 40, with an injury history every few years. I love him but he can’t beat father time forever.

    Hudson: Out with TJ

    Mikolas: Coming back from missing the year with elbow surgery

    Kim: Remember Seung Hwan Oh? Year two can definitely be a shock to your system.

    Carlos: His stuff looked better this year but he was all over and got smoked. Could be a #2, could be not MLB quality.

    Reyes: Huge arm but injury prone and who knows whether he can make the move to the rotation?

    Gomber: A solid #5 type but there’s not a lot more there. You’d probably rather have him as a luxury than a necessity.

    Ponce: The control just can’t be trusted, IMO. He’s a good bet to go to the bullpen.

    Woodford: His ceiling is #5. Gives up a lot of homers. Like Gomber, a nice guy to have in case of emergency but probably more a long reliever.

    Oviedo: Badly needed Memphis to hone his command. He’ll be good in the future but not 2021 unless something happens fast.

    Liberatore, Thompson, Rondon: Probably slated for Springfield or Memphis.

    There’s the makings of a solid rotation but the guys I’d say would be the “expected” 5 all have some sort of question mark with the exception of Flaherty (Waino, Mikolas, Cmart, Kim). If you decide you need Carlos and Reyes in the pen or something unexpected like Waino retires or an arm injury, where do you pivot? Kluber would seem to fit the John Lackey sort of late career gamble the Cards have been successful with. If you could get him on a one year, low $$, incentive laden deal, would you take a chance? Quintana has been average with the Cubs and hurt lately. Lester is out there too. As lefties they may get 2 year deals somewhere or maybe they want to bet on making more next year after a good year, especially Quintana.

    #143809
    thejagerthejager
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    I posted a big old crazy trade idea for next season in the other thread, but i want to bring it up here for a moment…

    the idea had lots of moving parts but one of the thoughts was swapping one of Fowler/Carpenter to the Angels for Pujols…this only matters if the DH remains of course

    now the deal also had us moving CMart and Wong and hopefully Fowler too… and bringing in Benintendi, and Arenado and Merrifield…. video game of course…but i want to go back to the Pujols part

    I think next year will be all about getting people into the park again (as many as is safely allowed)…and getting people to watch as much as possible…and the Cardinals have a very unique set of players and events to cash in on this, regardless of the quality of the team (Waino, Yadi, Pujols, Lou, Gibby, maybe even MCarp?)

    now i know they said 2020 was supposed to be the transition year…but with COVID and how well Waino and Yadi did combined with nobody getting to say goodbye to them (or Lou or Gibby) that bringing in Pujosl for his swansong makes a lot of sense…

    So for me…regardless of the entirety of my trade idea the key things that i think cold make for a memorable and better team are the following: (just best guesses at this point)

    -CMart and ? to BOS for Benintendi (not perfect but both seem to be needing a change of scenery)
    -Thomas/Bader/Oneill + Ponce + Edman to KC for Merrifield
    -Fowler/Carp to LAA for Pujols + 5mil
    -re-sign Waino (1yr same type of current deal with lots of incentives)
    -re-sign Yadi (1yr hopefully but 2yr and lower money but with lots of incentives is fine)

    that is still a lot of moving parts, but seems attainable

    Adding on a Fowler/Carp/Miller would be nice and bringing a better temporary 3bman than Carp might be smart too (though Gorman.Montero could be a youthful option as the season progresses)

    Still, the premise is to go FULL NOSTALGIA and regardless of the W/L we will still sell tickets. Though I think that we could still be a good team with:

    Merrifield, Benintendi, Carlson, Goldy, DeJong, Pujols, Carp, Yadi, Wong
    Jack, Waino, Mikolas, Kim, Gomber….Oviedo, Libertore, Woodford, Thompson, Rondon

    Still…regardless of all of this IMO we need:

    MOTO bat, someone that at least makes pitchers take notice
    leadoff hitter
    more contact in general

    #143813
    AvatarOnyxgem
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    Not sure why everybody wants to trade Wong, even some say just to get rid of him. Talk about all time moronic idea…

    #143814
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Blake Newberry of VEB included this sentence in sizing up the Cards.

    It is impossible to look at the Cardinals lineup and not see mediocrity.

    This has been a point that I’ve been making for the past two seasons and unless things drastically change the lineup and make-up of the team will be the same next season.

    There’s a lot of talk about 2022 as being the year that the F.O. will shuffle the cards/Cards. No one knows what the world will be like in 2021…. epidemic-wise. It could be similar to the last seven+ months. Let’s hope not but as we have learned this year…. anything can happen.

    The F.O. will likely look at 2021 as they did 2020…. throw some guys out on the field and hope for the best. No big additions. Maybe a couple of guys will live up to their potential.

    #143815
    AvatarOnyxgem
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    Also don’t get all the Bader hate, one of if not best defensive CF in the game, and for the year he had the 3rd highest OPS for the Cards this year(with more than 4 AB’s)….

    #143816
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Still…regardless of all of this IMO we need:

    MOTO bat, someone that at least makes pitchers take notice
    leadoff hitter
    more contact in general

    Jager, do you mean in addition to the moves you have made above? Or are these moves considered sufficient to meet your needs?

    #143819
    AvatarPadsFS
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    Bader would be fine if Fowler and O’Niell weren’t also negative outfielders.

    If the assumption is that Carlson can handle an everyday role and be a positive, then we are going to need another bat in the outfield.

    I’m still disgusted about how good Ozuna has been this year after the two worthless seasons he had for us.

    #143822
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Further reinforcement on a topic discussed yesterday. The Brewers GM wants to know about the DH next year, too…

    #143823
    Avatargscottar
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    We disagree on Carpenters 2021 PA’s needed for the option to vest. We know it’s 1100 PA’s total (20-2021), w/a at least 550 PA’s occurring during 2021.

    2020: The pro-rated multiplier for 2020 should be 162 divided by 58 games played (2.7931). That gets our boys to the 162 game equivalent. 169 PA’s, times the multiplier, gives Carpenter 472 PA’s for 2020.

    2021: 1100 PA’s, minus his pro-rated 2020 PA’s of 472, leaves 628 PA’s need in 2021.

    We are disagreeing by 44 PA’s, I’m not sure where they are.

    I understand that the contract lumps the two years together for 1100 PA’s but the way I calculated it was separating 2020 from 2021 instead of lumping them together since 2020 was played on a pro-rated basis. I don’t know if MLB and the MLBPA will look at it that way or not. My calculation was also based on 60 games instead of 2020 instead of 58 so that may be wrong too.

    60 out of 162 is 37%. 37% of 550 is 203. 203 (2020) plus 550 (2021) = 753. That is where I got the 753.

    58 out of 162 is 35%. 35% of 550 is 192. 192 (2020) plus 550 (2021) = 692.

    692 minus 169 (2020) would equal a need of 523 for 2021.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #143829
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    well, your math got away from you on line two, 192 + 550 = 742

    and then line 3 works, 742 – 169 = 573 PA’s

    That’s 11 more than you originally had because you reduced the % to fit 58 games, instead of 60. So I get your formula now, it’s consistent with your earlier post. The math probably got all bent up in those edits 🙂

    For me, I have to first answer, “how many PA’s would Carp have had in a 162 game season, at his 58 game pace.” So I start off by multiplying, to get his 2020 extrapolated total established, and then bring the qualifiers in at the end.

    That first 550 is really not in play, although it’s natural to look at it as two blocks of 550. 1100 overall, with at least 550 in 2021 are the necessities. It could be 500, then 600, and he’d vest.

    If Carp gets 628 PA’s, he’s the all-star MOTO bat we’re looking for right now. It’s his last two seasons trend that suggests that’s not him anymore.

    #143844
    Avatar1964cards
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    Upgrading the offense has to be the top priority. However, before the Front Office starts making moves they need to resolve four issues quickly.

    1. Hitting Coach – it is time for Jeff Albert to move on. Whatever he is doing, it has not worked. The team needs to find a hitting coach with the demonstrated ability to improve and maintain offensive production at the major league level. Isn’t that what they did when they hired Mike Maddox as Pitching Coach? Retaining Albert cannot be seen as a selling point to prospective free agent candidates can it?

    2. Matt Carpenter – Matt will be 35 years old during the 2021 campaign. Matt has had two consecutive dismal seasons (I recognize that this season was a shortened season) and I do not see a miraculous rebound on the horizon. It is time to for the Cardinals to admit the contract extension was a mistake and move on. The club needs to tell Matt that they will be looking to move him during this offseason. If a deal cannot be worked out, the club should tell him that he should plan on seeing very limited playing time moving forward. At this point, the organization needs to limit the on field and financial damage this contract inflicts. Realistically, I cannot see anyone wanting to obtain Matt and I am kinda hoping he elects to retire. There is nothing worse than watching one of your baseball hero’s play way below their good years as they try to hang on or play out a contract.

    3. Dexter Fowler – Dexter will also be 35 years old during the 2021 campaign. It is also time for the organization to move on from Dexter. Two of the last three seasons have been disappointing. Similar to Carpenter and I do not see a miraculous rebound on the horizon. The club needs to tell him that they will be looking to move him during this offseason. If a deal cannot be worked out, Dexter should plan on seeing very limited playing time moving forward. Similar to Carpenter, the organization needs to limit the on field and financial damage this contract inflicts.

    4. Yadier Molina – Yadi will be 38 years old during the 2021 campaign. It has been an absolute joy to watch Yadi play over the years. He continues to be a club house leader and productive on the field.
    However, no one escapes father time. I hope the Front Office will be able to work out an incentive based deal similar to Wainright’s to retain Yadi. The one thing this club cannot afford is another “Carpenter-like” extension.

    IMO, the team’s ability to sign free agents and trade for quality hitters will be influenced by how these four situations are resolved.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatar1964cards.
    #143846
    Avatargscottar
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    well, your math got away from you on line two, 192 + 550 = 742

    and then line 3 works, 742 – 169 = 573 PA’s

    That’s 11 more than you originally had because you reduced the % to fit 58 games, instead of 60. So I get your formula now, it’s consistent with your earlier post. The math probably got all bent up in those edits 🙂

    For me, I have to first answer, “how many PA’s would Carp have had in a 162 game season, at his 58 game pace.” So I start off by multiplying, to get his 2020 extrapolated total established, and then bring the qualifiers in at the end.

    That first 550 is really not in play, although it’s natural to look at it as two blocks of 550. 1100 overall, with at least 550 in 2021 are the necessities. It could be 500, then 600, and he’d vest.

    If Carp gets 628 PA’s, he’s the all-star MOTO bat we’re looking for right now. It’s his last two seasons trend that suggests that’s not him anymore.

    Yes I was off with a couple of my numbers but the method I used here is the same method I used for Andrew Miller’s vesting option, which ended up being spot on. Regardless if he needs 523 PA’s or over 600 PA’s in 2021 I think we agree that it should only be obtained if he puts up second half 2018 numbers, which would be a good problem to have.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #143850
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    1964, I like that you explained your thinking on each of your four points. The only one I question is no. 3. Of all the problems the Cardinals need to address on offense, Fowler should be way down the list. Granted, he was not good after missing time due to his stomach illness, but prior to that, he was the team’s second-best hitter after Goldy. (And he wasn’t awful in 2019, either.)

    Six regulars had a lower season OPS+ than Fowler’s 92 in 2020:

    Molina
    Wong
    Carpenter
    O’Neill
    Edman
    Carlson

    I am not suggesting that Dexter is great shakes, but he will be back for 2021. If they get another OF from the outside, he would probably play in left. But if someone emerges from within to earn more time, making Fowler a part-time player would be a great situation to be in.

    They are both overpaid relative to production, but Carpenter was the worse of the two in 2019 and 2020. So if the Cards eat any salary to improve the offense, it should be Carpenter’s. (We know neither is likely to happen.)

    My offer to Yadi is a one-year with a decent level of incentives and a second-year mutual option. (Having said that, the problem with incentives is that games played or plate appearances aren’t the kind of incentives you want to give Molina and performance-related ones are not allowed. Relatively low caps would be needed.)

    #143851
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    C1964, those are some good points. I agree that Albert has run his course and it’s just not working for these guys. You’d think an organization as successful as St Louis could pony up for one of the best hitting coaches.

    As for Dexter and Carp, the good news is that they are one year issues at most. Dexter’s contract is up after next year and so will Carp’s if he’s not back to his old self. So that shouldn’t be a detriment for long and that $35+M (plus Miller’s $12M and Wong’s $12.5M) will be off the books. In my mind, I’d like to see Waino and Carp retire at the end of next with a big fan send-off and the next wave waiting to take the baton.

    Yadi is a bit of a wild card. I feel safe in saying that he’s still a big league quality catcher and he brings so much to the table besides his on-field play. He’s likely to still be fine on the field in 2021 but in 2022? Who knows. I’d be ok with ordering him two years at a reduced rate so he can have his solo send-off into Cardinals and baseball Hall of Fame-dom at the end of 2022 while Knizner or Herrera or whomever becomes the primary catcher sometime during that stretch.

    #143854
    Avatarforsch31
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    Brian, I agree that the incentives’ top tier needs to be fairly low. I would put the incentives based on games played with the maximum at 120 for 2021 and 100 for 2022. That way Molina does not need to start all those games and he doesn’t have to insist on playing almost all the time. We need to transition over to Knizner and/or Herrera.

    #143855
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    and performance-related ones are not allowed.

    I thought there have been bonuses in the past for things like Gold Gloves or playoff MVPs, etc. Is this no longer the case? Or do you mean like they can’t offer him an extra million if he hits 10 HRs or drives in 75 batters?

    #143857
    thejagerthejager
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    stlcard25… i meant even if any of my ideas are off the table, those are the things we are lacking that the team should find solutions for IMO

    #143858
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    C1964,
    1) I’d like to see whoever the hitting coach is, put an emphasis on beating the shift with opposite field hitting, and hitting behind runners by looking for pitches that are favorable to using RF. We don’t slug well, so adapt and emphasize an approach that better fits the roster.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl.
    #143860
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    stlcard25… i meant even if any of my ideas are off the table, those are the things we are lacking that the team should find solutions for IMO

    Thanks for clarifying. Even if I don’t always agree with all your ideas, you spend a lot of time thinking through them, and I respect that. Keep it coming.

    #143861
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    stlcard25 asked:

    Or do you mean like they can’t offer him an extra million if he hits 10 HRs or drives in 75 batters?

    Yes. Bonuses that have to do with “statistical achievements,” such as your examples, are not allowed.

    As a side point, this applies to a single season or career. Along with personal services contracts, this is another area in which Albert’s deal with Arte led to the rules being changed for all players. Albert had $3 MM tied to 3,000 hits and another $7 MM if he can reach 763 HRs. MLB and the MLBPA happened to be working on the CBA when he signed and these clauses were negotiated out for the future.

    #143862
    thejagerthejager
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    Yadi, Wong, Bader…

    all are great parts to have IF the other positions are performing offensively…which they aren’t

    now I still think Yadi is worth keeping as i still havent been so enamored by Knizner to consider the drop off in leadership or pitching staff help that Yadi provides… he may be older, but his bat even if light still has been playing, he was one of the few players to hit at all this year

    Wong, love him, even his bat has some excitement….but at 12million? I am not sure his value is THAT much better than Edman at 2b or someone else. I love his defense, i don’t love his streakiness of an offense nor his paycheck…especially when there is need elsewhere

    Bader, he is the perfect 4th defensive outfielder, speed, elite defense, and even a little right hand pop….he should be who he is…a great 4th OF…and IF you can create enough offense in other positions, a starting CFer at the end of the lineup

    It isn’t that people just want to “get rid” of these players…it is that the failure of the other players has made their value be lessened because we have to depend on them to do things their skills are not capable of doing.

    IF we are “depending” on our catcher, 2b, and CFer to offensively carry the team we have problems…but that is where we are.

    I want an elite defense, but there just isn’t enough offense to warrant that luxury

    NOW…go out and fix that…i am more than happy to run them out there and salivate at their DWAR numbers, but right now we don’t have enough offensive WAR on the team to make that DWAR matter (even if that isn’t the best way to look at it)

    But…to do so would mean basically:
    1-Goldy
    2-Wong
    ss-Dejong
    c-Yadi
    CF-Bader
    LF-Carlson
    ————————
    3-massive upgrade
    RF-massive upgrade
    DH (potentially)- massive upgrade

    adding 3 key offensive talents would make it work IMO…but they have to be no doubters…we could probably get away with only 2 of those moves as i think as there is till life in Wong’s bat, and Yadi and Bader will still have good days

    Leadoff- Merrifield (RF)
    MOTO- Arenado (3b)
    DH (if possible)- Pujols (DH)

    I have heard all the complaints over Merrifields age, and Arenados contract and COORS numbers…but they have been some of the most consistent and healthy hitters and players over the last 5 years…their defense is top notch and they hit for power and average

    do they come with risk and great cost?

    YEP, but so did Goldy, and Goldy is the same type of player that they are…mid/late of prime and consistent professional hitter, and expensive

    -With Arenado’s contract and injury i think he comes cheaper than expected
    -Merrifield will be expensive, but i think we pair with Royals well as I think their financial model values quantity of good quality (and therefore cheaper) which we have in spades
    -Pujols is a weird one to consider, but I’d like to think the Angels would rather have a slightly more useful in the field player like Carp or Fowler over Pujols who takes ABs away from Ohtani at DH

    It would be an invest now moment that shifts the team’s core for 2022

    we’d have a core of:
    Arenado, Goldy, Merrifield, DeJong….carrying the team, which would allow the youngsters to come up and not feel the pressure of immediate success being on their shoulders

    It’s a lot and won’t happen…

    but the idea of investing now for 2021 and having a going away party for the old gen while simultaneously bringing in the new core and making way for the youngsters

    #143874
    Avatarforsch31
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    stlcard25, I was just re-reading your reply #143690. You state that you think that in the Yankee lineup or Twins lineup that O’Neill would hit around .270 with 30 HRs. I wonder if the Twins would feel the same way? If so, I wonder if he could be the starting piece of a trade for Kirilloff? I would love to include Andrew Miller in the trade, as well. That would be a good start to fixing a few issues.

    #143883
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Methinks the Cards would have to give a lot more than two rejects – O’Neill and Andrew Miller – to get a top 25 prospect in baseball like Kirilloff.

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