Cardinals’ Off-season Needs

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  • #150093
    Avatarbccran
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    Oh I don’t know, mspaid. Maybe a trade will happen.
    And I would like for Yadi to be re-signed because he’s clutch, and we don’t really have anybody else better ready to go.

    #150094
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Ah, the sketchy term “clutch”. Here is a SABR Research Paper on the subject.

    Summary in one sentence:

    “It is my own belief that clutch hitters, even if a few perhaps exist, have a negligible effect on the outcome of a pennant race.”

    “Do Clutch Hitters Exist?”

    #150095
    Avatarbccran
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    I read an article which said that Yadi lead the team in the last full season, 2019, in BA with runners in scoring position. He hit .315. That’s what I was drawing on, Brian.

    #150097
    AvatarNigel T
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    Yadi clearly has countless instances of clutchness we choose to remember, both historically and recently. When statistics support that narrative, it should be every Card fan’s reality. We should enjoy his greatness.

    #150103
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Taking nothing away from Molina’s big hits, for me, it is a matter of perspective.

    Is his .305 with RISP (not .315) in 2019 an indication of “clutchiness” or a reflection of him not always trying as hard as he could?

    It seems a fair question, as we have all seen that Molina picks and chooses when to go all out running to first. (Albert was the first Cardinal for whom that seemed to be acceptable.) Most of the time, it does not seem to impact the outcome of the game. But does he sometimes conserve energy in other parts of his game that are not so visible? No one knows.

    I have always wondered if he would have gone all out all of the time, and in conjunction, rested another 10-15 games per season instead of insisting on playing every day, if his career offensive results would have been better.

    We often hear broadcasters lauding “clutch” hitters who “rise to the occasion,” but also praise those hitters who “never give away an at-bat” and “always hustle”. I wonder a player can consistently be both.

    To the point, Molina’s overall career BA is a 21 points lower than his career mark with RISP. Or is that his RISP BA is 21 points higher than his overall BA? Either way you spin it, it is statistically significant. But is it a concern or something to celebrate?

    The SABR author wrote about two extremes:

    So fades a legend — but after all, what was really meant when someone was called a “clutch hitter”? Was he really a batter who didn’t fold under pressure-or was he a lazy batter who bothered to try his hardest only when the game was on the line?

    Note: The above is corrected as I incorrectly cited a 40-point gap instead of 21 initially.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    #150114
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    My nickname for Yadi has been “captain clutch” for a long time now. The career difference is .021 (not .040).

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl.
    #150118
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    You are correct. My mistake. I misread the lines at the top of his page on Baseball Reference. His 2020 BA was .262 but his career mark is .281. His career BA with RISP is .302, hence the 21 point career difference you cite, rather than 40. Sloppy on my part. I will correct the above post, too.

    #150120
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    no biggie, just like when you corrected bccran in the post above, we’re all striving for accuracy and we all make mistakes.

    I’m not really into the regular season “clutchness” (RISP), as much as I am as when all the chips are on the table. Who shows up when it’s win or go home? We just got eliminated by the SDP and our best batter that series was Yadi. That’s my version of clutch.

    #150130
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    I think the SABR author’s view point is shallow. Body, mind, and soul play heavily into everybody’s performance, including athletes. That’s why, for example, football combine analyses aren’t perfect by themselves. I believe the mental/psychological make up of an athlete is not weighted properly, partly because it’s hard to do.

    I think you see it at all levels. I’ve never played any sport professionally, but even at college and high school levels, you “just knew” some players were more likely to rise in clutch moments. Conversely, some players more likely did the opposite. Basketball shooting is a good example. Some players with a 70% free throw percentage rise 10% in the final moments and the opposite is true for others. I don’t think this means the “clutch” guys were trying to miss shots earlier in the game. Again, the psychological/mental capacity to handle those moments matters greatly.

    This isn’t unique to sports. Why does one resident flourish in surgery while another of apparently equal talent cracks under the pressure. I saw it in the military too. All is not equal or random when it comes to people handling stressful/clutch situations.

    FWIW, Brian Kinney talks about the “clutchness” of a player using WPA (win probability added). Don’t know if that’s worth much, but I’ve seen him refer to it a few times and he’s a big metrics guy. I remember him touting Yadi’s clutchness using WPA when the Cards won the NLDS against Atlanta in 2019.

    #150143
    Avatarbccran
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    Not a big deal, and certainly not having to do with stats, but most of my friends who watch a lot baseball feel that the best player to have at the plate when the game is on the line is Yadi. Why? Because he hits the ball where it’s pitched. He makes contact. The last two seasons he’s only struck out 13% of the time. Nothing more discouraging than watching a batter with his hands down on the knob of the bat with two strikes in a clutch situation whiff with a mighty swing at a slider in the dirt or a sizzling chest high 4 seamer.

    #150147
    Avatarforsch31
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    Brian, I agree about whether the 21 point difference means he is taking ABs “off” or not. It makes it seem that he cares more about the “glory” ABs than a “regular” AB. However, something to consider is how pitchers are pitching him with RISP. Are they wanting him to hit into a double play? Are they not wanting to put him on base, also? Maybe he is getting more pitches in the zone when he is hitting with RISP.

    The sign of a true professional, to me, is someone who looks at every AB as an opportunity to help the team. Whether ahead, behind, tied, early in the game or at the end of the game, every AB is an opportunity to help the team win. You never know how many runs it will take to win a game and you only have a limited number of times to hit during a game. Take advantage of every opportunity.

    #150153
    Avatarbccran
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    So there’s no sense in talking about a clutch player, who bears down even more with runners in scoring position in a tense moment of the game? Who chokes up and refuses to give in to the pitcher? Of course there is.

    #150293
    Avatargscottar
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    From Goold’s most recent chat. Cardinals looking for cash neutral trades?

    Q: I think I understand why very few free-agent signings have happened, but why aren’t we seeing more trades in MLB by this point?

    A: Same reason. The Cardinals have been on the phones/email/texts trying to conjure up trades — that is something that had their attention, more than it seems they let on. But they’re looking for cash-neutral deals. Those are tricky when everyone wants to shed cost — as we’ve seen with the tender deadline and the options not exercised. The financial situation and the lack of clarity on when the season will start, how long the season will be, or whether there will be a DH in the NL has slowed everything the Cardinals would be involved in. Once those questions start getting answers, then some of the groundwork the Cardinals have done with these trade discussions can gather momentum.

    Or, there is one school of thought internally that the Cardinals are positioning themselves for trade talks during the season as tickets are sold, as revenue resumes, and they can talk less about cash-neutral and more about adding salary. But, that would mean bucking the trend of recent trade deadline inactivity.

    https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/a-vaccine-mandate-for-baseball-mozeliak-and-st-louis-media-and-more-derrick-goold-on/collection_3c7227f6-ed81-5024-8b99-64b4a5c16a72.html#11

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #150512
    Avatarbccran
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    Idea on another forum – how about going after Benintendi by offering Bader and Helsley?

    #150527
    Avatargscottar
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    I am a huge Benintendi fan and have mentioned him on this board before. I admit am a bit biased because I watched him play in person a lot at the college level. To me he and Carlson are very similar. I would do the deal you mentioned but I would rather trade O’Neill instead of Bader. We need the elite defense in CF since Benintendi and Carlson are better in the corner OF spots.

    #150536
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Benintendi
    for
    Bader and Helsley

    STL shouldn’t, huge overpay.

    Benintendi is a 6.6mil gamble at this time. I don’t expect STL to release the funds to place those kind of bets.

    #150538
    Avatarbccran
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    The Cards traded for Ozuna, and everyone in hindsight is rueing the loss of Gallen and Alcantara. Before the trade, Gallen spent most of the season at Springfield, and had a 3.79 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Struck out only 42 in 71 1/3 innings. Got 4 starts at Memphis. Projected as a back of the rotation starter. Alcantara was also at Springfield in 2017. Had a 4.31 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Neither considered top of the rotation prospects. We have a number of pitchers in our system right now equal to Gallen and Alcantara at that time that we could use as trade chips. Let’s make a deal.

    #150540
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    That proposed trade would not be payroll neutral.

    #150545
    Avatargscottar
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    Bader and Gant would be closer to being payroll neutral.

    #150552
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Good point. That might work from the StL side, but I am Boston, I don’t see the upside potential for me.

    #150553
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    IF BOS were willing to sell this low on Benintendi, I’d question Benintendi’s upside value for STL. But beyond questioning STL’s return for Gant and Bader, BOS should immediately accept that offer.

    #150596
    Avatarbccran
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    What do all of these Cardinals have in common?

    Flood
    McGee
    Brock
    Ozzie
    Rolen
    Edmonds
    Holliday
    Berkman
    Beltran
    Heyward
    Ozuna
    Goldschmidt

    #150613
    Avatarforsch31
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    When was the last time a projected “back of the rotation” starter was ranked #40 in all of baseball by one ranking poll one year and #70 by 2 ranking polls the next year? Also, Alcantara made his debut in his 21 year old season. I think he was rated a lot higher than back of the rotation.

    EDIT: I’m sorry. It was said that Gallen was the back of the rotation starter. However, it still stands that Alcantara was a very highly thought of starting prospect.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Avatarforsch31.
    #150616
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Benintendi doesn’t have much upside to me. I’d much rather trade for Nimmo than him. He’s an averageish bat, decent glove LFer, which isn’t much of an upgrade in this OF. I’d rather keep the powder dry for a FA or trade next offseason.

    #150632
    Avatarmspaid
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    bccran:

    1. They’re all in the hall of fame
    2. They all had supper at your house
    3. They’re Libras
    4. They where size 12 EEE

    Just tell us and finish it!

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