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Putting Bader above Fowler and O’Neill (who had dismal numbers for corner outfields) sure isn’t saying much. Why would you want to make that comparison? It’s embarrassing. It’s like comparing a C- term paper to two D term papers and saying the C- term paper was pretty good.
And to compare Bader to Carlson is like comparing apples to grapefruit. Carlson was a 21 year old kid who was in his first 35 major league games. A kid who was brought up only because guys like Bader, O’Neill, and Thomas were so weak at the plate. A move to try to inject some energy into that dormant offense.
Carlson has some potential to be a solid OFer. That’s good. Bader already has an elite skill, his glove. His bat looked better this year (not simply the small sample size). That’s a good combo for 2/3 of the OF. Let’s see who can seize the other spot. Fowler will start there but he’s nearly 100% likely to be ineffective or injured, so O’Neill or Thomas will get a shot at some point.
Cards tried this before with a great glove no hit centerfielder. Clubs get carried away with that defense in centerfield. Cards finally gave up and traded him to the Phils. Then he went to the Rays. Then the Braves. And finally back to the Angels. Never was able to win a starting job after being traded originally from the Angels.
The dark horse for the OF is Dean. Isn’t he still on the team? You referred to Bader’s minor league numbers. Have you checked out Dean’s numbers at AAA New Orleans in 2018 and 2019? Eye popping.
Bader has a wRC+ over 100 in two of his four MLB seasons. That’s hardly no hit.
As for Dean, his stats at 25 in a hitter’s league aren’t that eye popping. Bader destroyed the league in his time there, too.
Bader .317/.427/.698 for a 166 wRC+ in 2019
Dean .326/.397/.475 for a 132 wRC+ in 2018 and .337/.401/.635 for a 146 wRC+ in 2019
It should be noted that Dean is older than Bader. So his stats aren’t eye popping. They’re what an averageish major league bat should do at an advanced age against minor league pitching in a hitter’s league. Just like Bader did.
Bc, your arguments always point to your belief that Bader will do his worst while the others will do their best. Why is that? Can’t Bader also have a good year?
If you want to say his track record in the majors, O’Neill’s track record isn’t any better. So far, Carlson’s isn’t very good. To somewhat use your terms, compare apples to apples.
Carlson was one of 3 outfielders named to the all minor league All Star team by BA. He’s in a different class than Bader,
O’Neill, and Thomas. He’s a certainty. The other 3 fall short of that.Carlson had a worse minors career than O’Neill for sure, Bader and about the same as Thomas. Not sure why that makes him a certainty. I like him and think he’ll be a good player, but it’s another case of Bccran Favoritism™ at work here.
Don’t forget that O’Neill was also named to the BA all-star team. He hasn’t fallen shot of anything Carlson has done, so far.
AAA lines –
Carlson (22 years old) – .361/.418/.681/1.099 (small sample)
Dean (27 years old) – .331/.398/.546/.944
O’Neill (25 years old) – .256//339/.554/.893
Bader (26 years old) – .275/.345/.465/.810You tell me, 25 and Forsch.
Since you seem hung up on favorable comparisons, how about putting Carlson’s and Bader’s 2019 numbers at only AAA side-by-side. Heck, compare them to O’Neill’s 2018 numbers at only AAA. Not much difference in any of them.
You tell me, 25 and Forsch.
I’ll tell you that you like Carlson and Dean and don’t like O’Neill and Bader.
I am fine with Bader Oneill and Carlson in the OF…
IF
we can get production from 2b and 3b that gives the offense a boost
leadoff hitter
MOTO batideal…Merrifield and Arenado…
both make our defense better and the offense better…AND make our defense even better by improving the defense in the OF by not depending on ONeill or Bader’s bats
now…Merrifield and Arenado are probably not happening….but the point still remains…
proven lead off hitter hopefully with some other talents
bat to protect Goldy of caliber enough to matterCesar Hernandez (2yr + team option) (2b leadoff)
Ha-Seong Kim (4yr + 2 team options) (3b/SS/2b power, young)that might work enough…but both are FA signings…and it seems no one wants to spend money despite the obvious need…and with Yadi and Waino being FA the crying over not having money seems deafening
I like trades…we have trade talent…but you have to identify the players you actually want for it to happen…and that means sometimes tipping your hand and giving a bit more…. this offense is so bad we deserve to have to pay ab it more to fix it….get over it…pony up the money or the prospects…but it has been bad for 3 years
Jager, what is wrong with Edman and why can’t he lead off? He’s got basically the same OPS as Merrifield in his career, younger, won’t cost us prospects in a trade, etc. Merrifield’s declining OBP is a big red flag for me, and I think Edman will bounce back next year to have a more normal looking season on regular rest (105 wRC+, 10-15 homers, 20+ steals). He’s probably leading off.
I don’t care much about a minor drop off in OBP of a player who as literally played all but 4 games the last 3 years. (and he still played 148 out of 162 the year before that)
AND that is for the Royals…et he still played every day… I think that speaks to an intangible more than words can ever do…guy is a ballplayer and WANTs to play every day…
Merrifield’s OBP for his 5years… 324, 326, 367, 348, 325 consistency with excellence thrown in…and also batting average DOES have value… .283, .288, .304, .302, .282
while leading the league in hits in 2 of the last 3 years (both the FULL seasons) as well as triples once and SBs once (twice in last 4 years)…also hit 9HRs last year from leadoff in a shortened season just like Edman…and hit in the teens in HRs the 3 years before…
I don’t see where his performance is poor… PLUS it is not like we have a 3bman anyways and this Edman to cover 3b more if we believe in him that much to not upgrade 3b or MOTO bat…
He is a premiere player at position we could use and his bat plays in a way that we need, his cheapness adds to his value in giving up talent to get him…but his cheapness ALSO gives him future value in this market… AND even if he loses a little bit…he is versatile enough and not costly enough to warrant a terrible addition to a super utility role
Edman in his brief time in 2018 did well, but it was still brief…and last year he was given all the opportunity and did not succeed at lead off… and was worse
he has yet to play an entire season, and we have seen plenty of players who come up and dazzle and then the league figures them out…that is what i see out of Edman…he was an amazing flash…and gradually as he was exposed so was his weaknesses
I go with a veteran who plays every day and takes pride in that…he is the type you invest in…same as Arenado…takes all parts of the game seriously…
Edman has proven he can play anywhere…that is great…but he hasnt proven his bat is anything more than a flash in the pan for all it’s excitement…a .250 hitter hitting 1HR (does that really project to 20?)..last year with all the time he got and a .317 OBP (10 point less than Merrifield), and 19 less hits….and less games… doesn’t give me this unfettered confidence in a player that is a solution to a poor offense that has already lost Wong… to me Edman is a part of the solution…but as a super utility role picking up the slack… but his progression as absolute part of the solution seems problematic at least…especially given the black holes of offense we have coming out of 5 of the 8 defensive positions…and that is being kind to DeJong…
STL…why do you point to the ONE thing that is not even that bad about him and act like it is the worst thing in the world…his value SHOULD be high for a trade because his value IS high…and is worthy of investing… he is not that old for when his contract runs out, he is versatile enough to value the bench if need be, and doesnt cost that much…even if he is only a solution for 2 years he more than makes up for what could be lost (which NEITHER of us know what it would be)…is he worth Gorman? no…or Herrera, or Libertore or Carlson or probably Thompson…. but Knizner? Thorres? Montero? Oviedo? Bader? Thomnas? Oneill? I think there is plenty of discussion and plenty of deals that could be put together for him that still benefit the Royals enough to talk…and they wont cripple the Cardinals farm
also..as i said very clearly…i said “ideal” the exact player i am less concerned with and more the fit…I dont see Edman as a leadoff hitter, he was given the chance and failed…and DID not have great year last year with more exposure and pressure to succeed…
the point i have made is we need a leadoff and MOTO bat…i prefer the value of Merrifield and Arenado…but i am sure there are other solutions out there…but saying we have leadoff solved is just not the case…we said that last year too and we saw how that went… and EVERY team and player had shortened years…Merrifield’s full year based on his performance given all the same issues everyone else had was pretty stellar…he seemed to sacrifice a little OBP for much more power…not always the worst thing…and actually pretty expected and respected IMO as a guy trying to help win the games for the team that was struggling
Fair enough, jager. I know you and I won’t agree much on Merrifield, and that’s ok.
Going another route from the speed and defense, low OBP model…what would you think about Brandon Nimmo? He is not a burner, not as high an average but his career OBP is .390. He has missed some time with injuries, too. But he might be cheaper in a trade than Merrifield as the Mets have lots of OFers. 2 years of control left. Thoughts, jager?
I have always thought a Nimmo for Bader trade made sense for both teams. Sense being confined to my imagination as opposed to research and facts.
I agree, Nigel. The trade simulator values Nimmo (+$32.7M) much higher than Bader (+$19M) though. We’d have to kick in a prospect for sure to get it close.
What about combining Nimmo and jj’s favorite JD Davis to transform the offense? The Mets would probably expect something significant in return. Bader, Herrera and Oviedo or Gomber would be about a $45.7M value to the Mets vs $49.90M coming back. Perhaps the Mets would want something for the here and now? How about Bader, Gallegos, Carlos Martinez and Zack Thompson? While that’s arguably a lighter return for the Mets (+$41.7M value), it would represent a bet on Carlos bouncing back from his -$5M protection. The Mets would get a CFer, an elite bullpen arm, a very good lefty prospect and a guy who could be a top 20 NL pitcher if healthy. For a couple of guys who are in their second tier of hitters (after Conforto, McNeil, Alonso, etc), it would be a healthy return. The Cards would save a little money but probably not much. Maybe they’d offer to pay the buyout for the Mets (+2M)
Cards lineup:
LF Nimmo
CF Carlson
1B Goldy
3B Davis
SS Dejong
C Yadi
RF Fowler
Pitcher or Carp DH
2B EdmanO’Neill backs up the OFers, Carp and Thomas and Knizner on the bench.
Flaherty
Waino
Kim
Mikolas
Gomber/Reyes/FA signing (Kluber?)The bullpen would be impacted but if Reyes sticks there I think the combo of Cabrera-Reyes-Gant could get you to Hicks.
Gotta firm up that OF. We went into 2020 with one aging veteran and 4 unprovens. Look what happened to our offense.
One of the worst in MLB. The infield and catcher can’t carry the day. The team offensive numbers don’t lie. Do you want Carlson, DeJong, and Goldy to be our only decent bats?Also need to close that donut hole with an addition or two at the AAA or AA level.
4 more years of Bader, 25? With that “look at me, ladies” attitude? Ugh.
RE: Baders 2019 & 2020
Who had the better ops+ during 2019-20′, Bader or Molina?
Who has the better D, Bader or Molina?
Who is the most productive baserunner, Bader or Molina?
(It’s the same name every time)And the same poster who wants Bader benched in favor of O’Neill, wants a declining Yadi re-signed. Is the offense better yet?! Too funny
The team offensive numbers don’t lie.
Beginning of the season to Sept 13th:
181 runs (4.53 runs/game), 41 HR (1.03/game), .246/.341/.399 105 wRC+
September 14th to the end of the season:
59 runs (3.28 runs/game), 10 HR (0.56/game), .207/.281/.308 65 wRC+
Seems clear that the team ran out of gas offensively thanks to the bone crushing schedule. Went from a slightly above average offense to a horrendous offense. They’ll be better in 2021.
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