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Pujols was a once in a generation (maybe multiple generations) superstar. Pure consensus Hall of Famer. Record setter in his first 10 years. How many Hall of Famers have the Cardinals had over their past long history? Wikipedia says the Cards originally were founded in 1882. How many Hall of Famers are on the left field wall at Busch?
But if you’re talking about pretty much perennial All Stars, that’s a different story. Yadi. Rolen. Edmonds. Holliday.
etc.Sure, I’d like to see several of those in the lineup. Maybe we’ll have that in the near future with Goldy, DeJong, Carlson, and Gorman.
The logic is sound – but only if the top-tier star they choose turns out to be a good decision over time. Because if not, the Cardinals do not have the ability to eat a huge contract and likely remain competitive.
My concern is that the list of big money players they did try to get in recent years would all have been bad contracts. It started with Pujols, then Price and Heyward and Stanton. None of them have lived up to their money.
Like anything, there are good and bad choices that are made yearly. The Cards decided at some point that they’re not terribly interested in signing the big $$ guys who hit free agency but they are willing to bet on multiple medium $$ guys who add up to a big $$ guy.
Of course, some will not be as well worth their huge contracts but there are plenty who are… Scherzer, Greinke, Betts probably will be, Machado is off to a good start. Even Harper has been solid enough to justify his deal. It seems fairly rare that a player just has no value in a short time unless they get injured.
On the Price example, would the Cards really have been worse off with Price at his salary when they spent over $30M a year on Leake and then Fowler with that money? Price has been worth 10.5 WAR since the begining of 2016, and the Cards have gotten 3.6 WAR for their money in those years from Leake and Fowler…
I think the Cards will have some players who could be All Stars in the lineup regardless of whether they added one from the outside. Still, I think Flaherty is the only one I think is a near shoo-in for All Star status going forward, and of course pitchers have their own set of questions.
As for the others with potential:
Carlson still is more likely to be a Matt Carpenter type in the OF to me. Solid on base skills, some pop, decent defense and it will all add up to some All Star games. But I don’t see him as a perennial All Star.
Gorman has a higher ceiling than Carlson as he’ll play a more premium position and has more power. Still, he will need to avoid the Ks to reach his potential.
Herrera is intriguing but is he Yadi Jr? That’s a tall bar to clear. I dunno that he will make it but I think he’ll be a regular catcher.
Dejong could flourish if we had backup to give him rest. I’d like to see him with some breathers. Til now he’s been good but not elite.
Goldy is on the downside of his career. I suspect we will see him be more a 4 WAR player this year with maybe a win of decay every year til his contract is done.
There are some other hopes down the line (Winn, Fletcher) but they are far away.
Still, could the Cards get that 6-7 WAR star from their system? Possibly. But they may have to go try to buy one.
Brian is correct in that had the Cardinals signed Pujols, Price, Heyward, and Stanton they might have really regretted it but we don’t know for sure if those players would have struggled as much had they been here. Sometimes players just play better or worse depending on the fit of the team and city. That is difficult to measure.
Having said that, we can’t allow that fear to prevent us from trying because we know that signing average players usually doesn’t work. I am not saying we should go crazy and sign multiple elite players but I do think we need to do it once every 3 to 5 years depending on the payroll situation.
We know the Cardinals have $62M coming off the books after 2021 (Carp, Fowler, Miller, CMart, and Kim). I am not saying they have to spend all $62M at once but they also don’t need to keep the powder dry. I would like to see at least one elite signing (there are many to choose from), a couple of supplemental signings, and one big internal extension.
The big internal extension is Flaherty. We all know that will be difficult since Jack seems to be against the MLB compensation system in a hardcore, militant way but the Cardinals may not ever have more financial freedom to do it than next winter. What kind of deal would it take to sign Jack assuming he reverts back to 2019 numbers? Would 5yrs/$90M do it? That is less than DeGrom, Strasburg, and Wheeler but more than Nola. It would be similar to the deal that Waino signed before 2014 but a little less.
I don’t think most fans will be satisfied with just an extension of any current player. Necessary but not sufficient. They will want most of all a home run acquisition from the outside. We will see if the team is willing to step up next winter.
Sometimes players just play better or worse depending on the fit of the team and city. That is difficult to measure.
This is one of the most sensible comments I’ve read in a while. Thanks gscotty.
I don’t think most fans will be satisfied with just an extension of any current player. Necessary but not sufficient. They will want most of all a home run acquisition from the outside. We will see if the team is willing to step up next winter.
Agreed, which is why I also suggested one elite acquisition and a couple of supplemental acquisitions.
Carlson is 6’2”, 205 lbs. He moves well.
Not some lug. The Coming through the system he’s played –CF – 182 games
RF – 170 games
LF – 80 gamesIf they want O’Neill in left because of his ceiling (maybe platooning with a new addition) and Fowler plays right because of his contract. where do you think Carlson is going to play?
Carlson is 6’2”, 205 lbs. He moves well.
Not some lug.Carlson ranked 36th of 54 CFers in sprint speed in 2020. At 22, he’s only likely to get slower. While he may play CF some out of necessity, he won’t be good at it and I believe the Cards will feel the sting if they lose 3/4 of their up the middle defenders this off-season.
25 – my question. The Cards are obviously enamored with O’Neill’s power. He hit 26 home runs in only 64 games for Memphis in 2018. He has only 450 major league plate appearances and the Cards would like to give him every chance to prove himself and succeed. Especially since they came in 30th out of 30 major league teams in home runs last season. 26th out of 30 teams in slugging percentage. So if they have O’Neill in left and Fowler in right, where do you think Carlson is going to play?
Yes, Carlson may end up playing CF out of necessity but that doesn’t mean he SHOULD be in CF. As soon as Fowler is off the roster I suspect Carlson will be moved to a corner OF spot. Bader or O’Neill either one would be a better defensive CF.
Schildt showed us his OF during the postseason.
I like Carlson in LF and O’Neill as the 4th OF, because O’Neill has plus D at all positions and the best RF arm.
What do you do in 2022 if O’Neill falls flat again at the plate and Bader doesn’t improve his offense. You can’t afford to have a light hitting centerfielder if don’t have at least some power at the corners.
You have it backwards. Bader had the best slg% last season and offensive numbers, not the corners. To answer your question, fix the corners.
Although he is slow, Montero could wind up in LF and fill a middle of the order spot in ’22. Once we shed ourselves of Fowler, Carlson grabs RF. IMO, Carlson fits in the two hole behind Edman. These are guesses, 2022 is so far off in so many ways. There’s also a very slim chance that we acquire an OF.
Don’t understand how some posters can tout Bader’s offensive prowess. His slash line in an abbreviated 2020 was – .226/.336/.443/.779. In 2019, when the Cards played a full season (a much more complete example), it was .205/.314/.366/.680.
The OPS of our two corner outfielders in 2020 was .621 and .706. In 2019 the OPS stats of those two players were .754 and .723. Very weak for corners. Saying Bader was a better offensive player compared to those pathetic numbers for corner outfielders sure isn’t saying a lot.
I wasn’t touting Baders offensive prowess, those are your words. I posted the actual numbers from 2020 from multiple sites, which I’m sure you’ve seen, which corrected the false claim of “light hitting centerfielder”.
You’d like Carlson in CF over Bader, for reasons well known to all, but it was O’Neill who played himself out of the lineup last September. Carlson is currently the LF’r for the manager, Bader the CF’r and Fowler the RF’r.
So is everyone agreed that the O’Neill is now the 4th outfielder? I’m not sure about that.
Here are the team offensive rankings for 2019 and 2020 in a few categories –
2019 (full season)
Runs per game – 19th
Total bases – 25th
Slugging – 24th
OPS – 21st
Home runs – 24th2020 (stub season)
Runs per game – 24th
Total bases – 30th
Slugging – 27th
OPS – 26th
Home runs – 30thNow, if you want a more complete picture of Bader, the proper way might be to combine his 2019 and 2020 numbers. That would be a full season. 531 plate appearances. 453 at bats. 95 hits. 59 walks. 15 HBP. Batting average of .210. OBP of .318. That’s probably a truer picture of what we’re dealing with regarding his production – on a team that is sorely lacking in overall offense. Unless we have some offensive improvement at the corners, we can’t afford to have Bader in the lineup. Defense of no defense.
So we are going to put a bad offensive year with a better than league average year to prove a point that we don’t like the best defensive CFer on the roster who also happened to be the 3rd best hitter on the team in 2020. Meanwhile, we ignore 2 other things that have been discussed this offseason:
1. The favored OFer was the 4th best offensive OFer in 2020. Yes, I know, he is highly regarded and will end up being at least a decent major leaguer. However, he is not there, yet. The disliked CFer was the best hitting OFer in 2020.
2. The corner OF positions need upgraded first. jj-cf-stl had a valid point. Instead of discussing that, we go back to how poor the offense performed and the disliked CF is the problem. It’s hard to upgrade the offense when you take out the outfielder who had the best offensive year. Just because O’Neill and Carlson SHOULD outperform Bader that doesn’t mean that they will.
I want to upgrade the offense also. I want to get more reliable bats in the OF. I like the promise that Carlson brings along with O’Neill’s possibilities. However, I don’t think the Cardinals are going to trade for any outfielder or sign any outfielder. Therefore, until there are 3 outfielders hitting better than Bader, he should be starting in CF.
We can discuss this in 20 other threads but it is not going to change what the Cardinals will do.
Forsch, you have no idea what the Cards will do. Neither do I. Neither does anyone else. They could very well make an OF move or two in the next month or two.
And when you say I put a bad year with a “better than league average year” to prove a point, you’re being inaccurate. You obviously can’t put those 2 years on an equal level. He only had 125 plate appearances in 2020. Versus 406 in 2019. 3.25 times the amount in 2020. So putting them together to make a full season is quite valid. It’s a full year’s production spread out over the last two seasons. Only fair way of looking at it. Not cherry picking 125 PAs which represents about 20% of a normal season for a starting position player. Reminds me of someone who cited Sosa’s “career” stats to make a point, when he’s only had 13 MLB plate appearances.
You used 2019 and 2020 to get:
.210 BA
.319 OBPYou could also have used:
.234/.326/.401/.727 with a 96 OPS+ from 2018 through 2020That would have put you very close to his career lines. That would be a better representation and still puts Bader above O’Neill, Fowler and Carlson in their major league numbers over the same period…..and he plays better defense.
I think it is more likely Bader’s 2018 was a “sophomore slump” than indicative of where he is as a hitter.
He hit in the minors. He’s hit well enough in two out of the last three years he would be at least a 4 WAR player over 600PA’s, and in his “terrible” year, he would have been a 3 WAR player.
That’s above average.
Since Fowler is going to play because of his contract, it makes sense to have O’Neill as the 4th OF since we know they are also going to play Carlson. But O’Neill should play one day a week for each of the starters. Every other day type arrangement, + PH/DH.
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