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What the Cardinals also do not have is what Goold noted in his concluding sentence.
Agreed. That’s where bringing in Betts or Machado before him come in. They’ve had a lineup full of guys who are all above average (Turner, Seager, etc) or able to be platooned to keep their bat above average (like Pederson or Muncy). Then you sprinkle in a star who puts up MVP type numbers (Betts, Bellinger) and you’ve got the recipe for a great lineup.
Typically the Cards have some of the first (Carp, Holliday, Beltran, etc over the years), some of the second (Moss, Gyorko, etc), but none of the third. Carp for a couple of stretches in early 2016 and mid 2018 and Goldy for a small part of July 2019 and early this year are about it. If your lineup can be all the above average hitters, like 2013, you can get away with no star bat. But not if you’ve got several guys hitting well below average, like now.
What the Cardinals also do not have is what Goold noted in his concluding sentence.
All we know for sure is that they don’t have the willingness.
VEB takes a look at Cardinal trade values. As you might expect they aren’t good.
An Update on Cardinal Trade Values (it’s not pretty) https://t.co/0hyGLAuBR6
— viva el birdos (@vivaelbirdos) November 6, 2020
Regarding Carlos, I suspect that despite his negative value, the Cards may get something for him. It won’t be much, but it probably won’t be a pure salary dump. If the market was one team negotiating with the Cards, then they could probably hold out long enough to make the Cards hand him over for nothing. But I’d imagine that several of the bigger market teams like the Mets, Astros, White Sox, Yankees or Angels could see a potential bargain and multiple of them might be interested. Carlos presents a conundrum in that he’s been above average in every role he’s been in so long as he’s been healthy. In 2020, he wasn’t either, mostly due to COVID. He had the oblique strain. But the shoulder seemed ok. There’s a decent shot that he starts 30 games, has a low-mid 3s ERA next year and would be an option to pick up for two more years at reasonable (in normal revenue years) rates.
Anyway, I could see a few of those bigger market teams liking their chances to score a bargain enough that the Cards could extract something from the deal. Perhaps that something is a low level lotto ticket or perhaps it’s a back end 40 man player. It won’t be much. But it won’t be absolutely nothing either, IMO.
Regarding Carlos, if STL could decline his salary for 2021, they would, for nothing in return. Any club that declines Wongs option wouldn’t blink to be rid of Carlos instead, that’s his trade value.
A club that has an adequate 2B replacement would absolutely blink when cutting a starter that’s needed in a rotation that includes one sure thing and a collection of guys coming back from injury, with one good season on their track record, relief arms and a bunch of #5/6s like Gomber, Ponce and Woodford.
That doesn’t mean they wouldn’t decline his salary if they could in this environment, because they might. It also doesn’t mean there won’t be 5-6 teams that wouldn’t. The Mets offered Marcus Stroman the QO and he sat out 2020 and has been a pretty identical pitcher to Carlos his whole career.
Again, I don’t think the Cards will get much for Carlos. They’ll be selling low and will likely look dumb 12 months from now for getting a prospect on the level of Rangel Ravelo or Jhon Torres (when we traded for him) back. But articles like the one on VEB make it look like the Cards would have to send a legit prospect with him just to be rid of him. That’s simply not true, and if it were, the Cards would be incredibly foolish to do so.
When having this discussion about potential trades, it is important to clarify who pays his salary and how much of it they pay. That is far more important then if a prospect is included or not.
Per Goold, the Cards have been trying to trade CMart for two years and haven’t found a deal. Given the current state of MLB, it is going to be even more difficult now.
IMO, expecting anyone to pick up his entire salary in this market is probably unreasonable. So the Cards either sweeten the deal by throwing in a player of value or covering part of the remaining salary or maybe both. The better the prospect, the less money changes hands and vice-versa.
25, Carlos is just another example of wasted funds going forward. It’s sad we have to let productive players like Wong walk and are forced to keep Carlos because of his guaranteed salary.
I didn’t read the article, and won’t, but possibly adding a legit prospect to Carlos is true, because his hoped for value hasn’t brought about a trade. I wouldn’t give a legit prospect to move Carlos either, which could be why he’s still here.
Derrick Goold wrote a detailed article on how the Cardinals might use platoons.
He did not include Mo’s quote when I asked him that direct question on our Zoom call last week.
“Rosters are the sum of their parts. If we were comfortable with the platoon model, we would be open to it.”
Does that sound like a ringing endorsement?
George Springer
St. Louis has been to the postseason in back-to-back years, but 2021 marks a decade since the club’s last World Series championship. The outfield was a weak point for the Cardinals, who ranked 14th in the NL in runs scored. As the best all-around outfielder available on the free-agent market, Springer should have several suitors, but no contender could use him more than St. Louis.Although getting rid of CMart’s salary may be the right thing to do but he is in the Death Valley of his career value. Its probably the roster spot that will see him on the move. What’s the probability of him being in the rotation out of ST next year if he is still around?
Ny asked:
What’s the probability of him being in the rotation out of ST next year if he is still around?
If you add “AND HEALTHY” to the end of your sentence, I think the chances are pretty good.
It is hard to assess if a dynamic spring training would be enough to restore his value to the point he could be traded for value. I suspect not, but it would not preclude an in-season trade if the rotation can get along without him.
Anne Rogers predicts the 2021 Opening Day roster. It is the players on the team now plus a free agent catcher and a free agent starter whether Molina/Wainwright or others. No other changes.
https://www.mlb.com/news/cardinals-2021-opening-day-roster-projection
There has been speculation about the Cardinals trying to move more salary this winter and we know how difficult that will be. You have to ask yourself what kind of contract would these guys get if they were a free agent right now?
So considering Carp, Fowler, Miller, and CMart. Would any of those guys get better than a 1 year/$5M deal right now? Maybe or maybe not but compare that to what the Cardinals owe them in 2021 and you can see what we are up against. Carp is owed 18.5, Fowler is owed 16.5, Miller is owed 12, and CMart is owed 11.7. That is tough sledding.
This group gave us little value this season and I don’t expect much in ’21. Jeez… that’s a lot of money going down the tubes. I wonder what this team would look like without the FOs poor judgment, Perhaps we should be looking upstairs for an off-season need (change).
In which off-season are you hoping for a change? Mozeliak is under contract through 2023. There is no indication whatsoever that the man who signs the checks is unhappy with the PBO’s job performance. Three years would be a long time to hold your breath. 😉
P.S. In all fairness, half of those deals were not bad when they were signed. On Carpenter and Fowler most everyone would agree, but Miller and CMart were fine at the time, but now look worse because of the economic climate and ongoing injuries.
The whole idea of Carlos being a sunken asset only works if you have COVID as the backdrop. He and Wong were very comparable players from 2016-2019 (11.2 WAR vs 11.3) , with Wong’s 2020 being the difference maker thanks to Carlos and his case of COVID.
Rate wise, Carlos was pretty much the same pitcher from the time he became a starter in 2015 until now, hovering right around 3 WAR/180 IP. While that’s not a superstar, that’s plenty passable. COVID is the reason his trade value is suppressed. A smart team would swindle us out of him and laugh their way through 2021 and maybe beyond.
If the Cards were trying to trade him for the last two years, I can promise that the reason he’s here still is that they were hoping for a Quintana type haul or better and didn’t get that offer, so they felt it was best to hold onto him. Salary was never going to be a consideration until March of 2020.
Nyquist:
If you look upstairs then you need to look to the very top. It is Junior who makes all the decisons NOT MO. Mo is just a mouthpiece and PR man for Junior. Mo didn’t decline Wong’s option…Junior did. No doubt Mo went to Junior toward the end of the season and asked if they were going to pick up Wong’s option and Junior said no.
If Mo was fired the next guy would be doing exactly the same thing Mo is. I can’t understand how people can’t see that. If you want a change in the ways things are done then you need new owners.I wasn’t trying re-litigate the origin of the stated contracts or if they were worth it or not or if the FO should be fired or not. I was simply making the point that those who think more salary will get moved this winter should lower their expectations. Those contracts would be hard to move in a normal offseason, so in this apocalyptic economic climate we find ourselves in I think it is borderline impossible to move those guys, unless the Cardinals are willing to eat almost the entirety of the deals.
In which off-season are you hoping for a change? Mozeliak is under contract through 2023.
Gee…. I didn’t even mention Mozeliak’s name in the comment. But its good to know that you automatically look at Mozeliak as the main culprit.
If I were DeWitt I would be looking for a scapegoat to cover up the top brass boo-boos. They are so evident and a constant source for fans to feel that the FO is inept. Hence… not much faith in turning it around any time soon.
Hahaha, Ny. That might fool a few naïve newcomers here, but you have been very consistent in your criticism for a long time. (Consistency is good, though the hopes themselves are likely unrealistic.)
Lest we forget, the Cardinals made the playoffs in each of the last two years, including under some very trying circumstances in 2020. The only one who counts does not apparently feel an urgency to make “some changes upstairs” right now. Not every glass is half-empty or less.
P.S. A public flogging might appease a segment of unhappy and vocal fans, but as Nate has pointed out many times, expecting the approach of the team and its trajectory to significantly change because there is a different face leading baseball ops is probably not realistic. Overall, it appears that the team is being run the way DeWitt wants it.
What might shake his confidence? My guess is a prolonged downturn of results by the MLB team, coupled with a decline in attendance and ratings.
Who are the most likely 4 & 5 hitters next year.
I think Goldschmidt is fine; he just needs some protection so he doesn’t get pitched around so much.
Maybe this will be the year Bader, O’Neil, and Thomas figure it out at the plate and they are the ones who explode.
Would be nice to see it happen for StL instead of for other teams once the player has left StL.
Question for Brian about a non-Cardinal player.
Tyler Gentry’s family lived in my neighborhood for years. (His little brother is my son’s best friend).
He’s an outfielder that played in the SEC at Alabama. The Royals drafted him in the 3rd round earlier this year.
COVID really fouled up the minor leagues but based on his profile – he ‘projects’ to 20-25 hrs with average major league defense.
Have you ever heard of him before now?
Thank you.
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