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If you don’t like the Bader and Whitley for Waters trade, are you’re saying that Waters will be a much better player in the long run than Bader?
Was Bader ever a top 100 prospect in MLB, let alone top 25?
I don’t get how you run the guy down at every turn, but when you are trying to trade him, you act as if his value is much higher than it really is. Inconsistent.
So yes, clearly expectations are higher for Waters (or any of the others on the list of OFs provided by stlcard25) than they were for Bader.
Oh? Please share the details (including the links). Top 25 would be even better for this comparison.
P.S. I can save you some time where NOT to check. Among the national top 100s that Bader did not appear on:
Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
ESPN (Keith Law)
MLB Pipeline(AKA the prospect analysts that have the most credibility. So if you find a Bleacher Report or FanRag list to the contrary, well, consider the source.)
IIRC, Bader did sneak into the top 100 at one point in maybe an in season ranking.
Per this article, Bader was #89 in 2016’s midseason rankings by BA:
However, there’s a big gap between #89 and top 30, and especially between a guy who’s got 6 years of control and one with 3 years left. I have no idea if Waters will be better than Bader, but he has much more value in a trade.
Here is where MLB Pipeline had Cardinals coming into 2017:
6 Reyes
39 Kelly
68 Weaver
91 PerezI track the annual season-opening rankings for all the major sources, since that is when everyone refreshes their lists.
Unlike many other sites, MLB Pipeline updates their rankings periodically during the season, such as post-draft. So perhaps that is what you are seeing. Why can’t you share a link?
Please explain the details of what you found and most importantly, how that compares to Waters and the other outfielders’ rankings today – so we don’t get the real discussion off track.
Here is what MLB Pipeline had for Cardinals when 2016 opened. Just two were in the top 100.
13 Reyes
80 FlahertyI track the annual season-opening rankings for all the major sources, since that is when everyone refreshes their lists.
Unlike many other sites, MLB Pipeline updates their rankings periodically during the season, such as post-draft. So perhaps that is what you are seeing. Why can’t you share a link?
Please explain the details of what you found and most importantly, how that compares to Waters and the other outfielders’ rankings today – so we don’t get the real discussion off track.
P.S. If what you said is accurate, then MLB put him on the top 100 during 2016, took him off that winter and put him back on during 2017. That would imply he is very close to the bottom.
I am assuming you are ducking sharing the exact numbers for that very reason…
Bader also got to #90 in season on MLB pipeline in 2017.
Ok, let’s go with that and get back to the subject at hand. Would you trade a #90 prospect on one list several years ago who hasn’t developed as well as hoped in the three years since for what is likely a consensus top 50 (or maybe top 25) prospect now – even with a reliever as a kicker?
Almost certainly not.
The question was asked “was Bader ever a top 100 prospect?”
The reply was “check your facts” rather than “yes, he was in the 80’s and 90’s at one time”. A question is not a presentation of facts.
confrontation 101
You said Bader had never been on a valid top 100 list. Yes, he was. Twice. On mlb.com.
And I simply won’t debate who was rated higher on a subjective prospect list, because one now has a mlb record you can look at, as a poster has used on here multiple times to compare him to DeJong, and the other has none.
Only a few games at AAA so far. Plus I’ve included a reliever who had a great sub 2.00 ERA season at AA and AAA in 2019, and a sub par 2.00 ERA in a short stint in MLB in 2020.Ok, let’s go with that and get back to the subject at hand. Would you trade a #90 prospect on one list several years ago who hasn’t developed as well as hoped in the three years since for what is likely a consensus top 50 (or maybe top 25) prospect now – even with a reliever as a kicker?
Almost certainly not.
I would trade the older #90 guy if I could, but the other team wouldn’t be likely to take the deal.
I still like the idea of attempting to get one of the OF prospects, if we can. It might be pricey, though. That’s why I think someone like Kirilloff might be slightly cheaper as he’s older with a little bit of injury history (he had TJ before he ever played in the minors) and his rank has slipped a little from where it was last year.
stlcard25, of course, every Cardinals fan would love that trade because it is imbalanced. The other team would almost certainly never accept it, through.
Kirilloff is well enough thought of that two weeks ago, the Twins added him to their playoff roster despite him having not played in MLB yet. What I have been reading is they might trade Rosario because they want pitching, not more outfielders. I would be surprised if Kirilloff could be pried loose, but if so, it will take much more than suggested here.
A more likely trade, IMO, would be like the O’Neill-Marco deal, where each side gave up a top prospect in return for one at another position. Multiple lesser guys for one really good guy is hard to pull off.
To be specific, the top 100 prospects the Cards have right now are Carlson, Gorman and Liberatore. Those are the guys other teams want.
But I get that general point that if not one prospect, then maybe another. Hey, they should definitely try. I am just trying to be realistic about what it would take to actually make a trade work.
25 – Bader was #83 in 2016 and #90 in 2017 on mlb.com.
And I would challenge anyone to predict comparative success to players on any prospect ranking. If you can prove that Waters will be a better major leaguer than a combination of both Bader and Whitley have at it.
bccran, regarding the trade you proposed, chances are very good the other team would not make the deal. You would need to offer up a better player(s), I think.
“Every post doesn’t need to be a challenge does it?” – yesterday #145654
“And I challenge anyone…” – today
all over the map
Well s much as you BASH on Bader saying how bad of a player he is, trying to get a top prospect for him is funny….
Kirilloff is well enough thought of that two weeks ago, the Twins added him to their playoff roster despite him having not played in MLB yet. What I have been reading is they might trade Rosario because they want pitching, not more outfielders. I would be surprised if Kirilloff could be pried loose, but if so, it will take much more than suggested here.
Oh, absolutely he would cost way more than Bader and Whitley. And I’d also be surprised, but the Twins do have a glut of OFers and also have Larnach, who’s nearly as highly rated as Kiriloff in some circles. Plus I think the Twins are in a bit of a win now scenario, with a very good team that’s missing a piece or two from being elite.
They always seem to need pitching, which we have. I might be willing to include Alex Reyes in a trade for him, which I wouldn’t want to do for almost anyone else.
Reyes is the kind of name that might get the attention of a prospective trade partner…
But, would the Cards pull the trigger? I can see the fan uproar when he becomes the next budding star to have been traded away. And unlike Voit and Randy, Reyes was a real top prospect. But you have to risk top quality to get top quality. Two or even three lesser players probably won’t cut it.
I don’t really want to lose Reyes as he showed me this year that he still has all the stuff needed to be, at worst, a Dellin Betances type out of the pen. I think he’ll also get a shot to start next year and will be a #3 at worst if he keeps his arm on. His lost years mean his arb salaries aren’t likely to be much.
I just happen to think Kirilloff is the second best hitting prospect in the minors. Not 2nd best player, but I think he’ll consistently hit .300 or better in the bigs. He could crack 25+ HRs to boot. So if pressured, I would make the trade of Reyes+ (some other player) for Kirilloff.
To add, I would also trade Reyes for Kelenic, probably for Pache, Rodriguez and Dominguez, and perhaps for Robinson or Greene.
My only comment on Bader in the top 100 at MLB.com. He was not in the top 100 before the 2016 or 2017 season and he was not in the top 100 after the 2016 or 2017 season. This is the list compiled by Jonathan Mayo and tracked by Baseball Reference. I can’t speak to whether or not he was on the list at any other point of either season. Baseball Reference shows Bader on zero prospects lists that they track during his minor league career. Therefore, I have to conclude that he was around the end of any top 100 list that he may have made.
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