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25, I agree that Kirilloff is going to be the type of hitter that will consistently hit .300 and put the bat on the ball. I would be happy with .300 and around 20 HRs each year.
Everyone is assuming we have all of this pitching available for trade. But do we really? How confident are we in our 2021 rotation?
Jack: solid and ready to go.
Kim: solid and ready to go.
Mikolas: coming off injury. Will he be ready?
Waino: Free agent
CMart: Injured and ineffective.
Hudson: Out for the season.
Gomber: Is ready to be a starter all season?
Ponce: Is he ready to be a starter all season?
Reyes: Is he ready to be a starter all season?
Gant: Needs to stay in the pen.
Helsley: Needs to stay in the pen and had a bad 2020.
Oviedo: Has a bright future but probably needs some AAA time.
Woodford: Ditto above.
Liberatore: Ditto above.
Thompson: Ditto above.Gscottar, I actually feel comfortable with the 2021 rotation. There are definitely some question marks, but I see a lot of solid depth with some upside too. I also think the bullpen will be very good again, although that can be tough to predict.
Trading one or two of the SP thins that depth but I also see two of Oviedo, Liberatore and Thompson making an impact by 2022. I also don’t count out Rondon as a guy I see being a notch or two higher than Woodford in future projection.
So it’s about 2022-23 for me. Boy would I love to have a lineup of guys with power and on base ability plus a staff of exciting and still young pitchers to challenge for the Series.
25, that’s about where I am, at this point. I think we can start preparing for 2022-2023 and still field a competitive team in 2021. If we make a couple of shrewd moves, we can set this team up for another 4-5 year period of dominance.
We have enough SP depth so let’s re-sign Waino for another year and trade some of that depth to shore up the OF future. I am willing to gamble on 2021 for big results in 2022 and 2023.
Well, every team has question marks at every position.
Here is how I see it.
If you want the Cards to improve the offense externally in 2021, there are two major choices – free agency or trade. They probably aren’t going to spend the money on free agents, so that leaves trades.
While it would be a great fantasy to scoop up a bunch of spare parts and turn them into gold, that is not realistic.
To get someone good, where do the Cardinals have the most depth that could best accommodate a trade with players that would interest another team? Pitching seems the most likely source, unless you are willing to part with guys like Carlson, Gorman or Herrera. There should be equal risk in every trade.
Doing nothing is an option, too, and I know some have talked themselves into that. But I think something has to be done to help the offense – not at a (unrealistic) Arenado level, but something. If they have to deal some pitching to get it, I get it.
Which is why someone like Joc Pederson makes sense. We don’t have to trade anyone to get him and he shouldn’t command a huge contract.
From Rick Hummel’s chat yesterday.
QUESTION: Name the free-agent bat who you see as the most likely fit for this team?
COMMISH: We’re not talking big free agents here, probably. Joc Pederson looks a little more appealing off his good postseason performance. He strikes me as strictly a platoon player, but that might work with somebody like Tyler O’Neill as a complement. Pederson wasn’t any better than O’Neill during the season but has looked good in October.
Ironically, Pederson would probably be more appealing if he played badly in the postseason as it would drive his price down.
Also, O’Neill has reverse splits. I dunno why, but he typically hits RHP better. If we didn’t have Fowler, I would be happy to plug Carlson in RF, Pederson in LF, platoon O’Neill and Bader in CF.
Again, a poster on another board came up with an excellent idea to look at the mlb.com Top 100 list and see if there are any outfielders that are “major league” ready. Possible acquisitions through an off season trade. A Tyler O’Neill type trade. The full list is as follows, with the highest level they have attained –
#9 – Jarred Kelenic (CHW) – AA (21 games)
#10 – Cristian Pache (ATL) – MLB (2 games)
#15 – Julio Rodriguez (SEA) – A+ (17 games)
#16 – Austin Martin (TOR) – Drafted in 2020
#22 – Drew Waters (ATL) – AAA (26 games)
#24 – JJ Bleday (FLA) – A+ (38 games)
#25 – Riley Greene (DET) – A (24 games)
#27 – Alex Kirilloff (MIN) – AA (94 games)
#39 – Kristan Robinson (ARI) – A (25 games)
#45 – Alek Thomas (ARI) – A+ (23 games)
#48 – Jasson Dominguez (NYY) – signed 2020
#49 – Zac Veen (COL) – Drafted 2020
#51 – Taylor Trammell (SEA) – AA (32 games)
#55 – Heston Kjerstad (CLE) – drafted 2020
#60 – Heliot Ramos (SAN) – AA (25 games)
#66 – Hunter Bishop (SAN) A- (25 games)
#72 – Brennan Davis (Cubs) – A (25 games)
#74 – Robert Hassell (SD) drafted 2020
#76 – Jesus Sanchez (MIL) – MLB (10 games)
#77 – Trevor Larnach (MIN) – AA (24 games)
#78 – Austin Hendrick (CIN) – drafted 2020
#85 – Corbin Carroll (ARI) – A- (11 games)
#90 – Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) – MLB (35 games)So, as you can see, the number of high level MLB ready guys is fairly limited –
Jarred Kelenic (only 21 games at AA, though)
Cristian Pache
Drew Waters AAA (26 games)
Alex Kirilloff (94 games at AA)
Taylor Trammell (only 32 games at AA, though)
Heliot Ramos (only 25 games at AA, though)
Jesus Sanchez
Trevor Larnach (only 43 games at AA though)
Ryan MountcastleOff this list, I tried to look at the existing strength of the major league outfields for different teams, and thought that maybe Atlanta was pretty well stacked already. If so, then I thought they might be open to trading either Pache or Waters. I felt that Pache might be a keeper for Atlanta, so zeroed in on Waters. He mainly plays CF and hasn’t shown the power of a corner guy. So I tried to construct a trade for him.
If someone has some ideas on all the other OFers (that are pretty much MLB ready), would like to hear them. If you don’t like the Bader and Whitley for Waters trade, who else would you be willing to trade for Waters? Or would you want him at all?
Waters has some risk as he’s sort of in the “hope his HR power shows up” category. He’s sort of like Dylan Carlson was before his 2019 campaign. If he’s a decent CF with lots of doubles and 10-15 HRs I think he’s still got some value, but not #14 prospect value going forward.
What would I offer for him? Something like Cabrera, Rondon and Junior Fernandez. The Braves would get three guys to immediately help their bullpen, with one a future starter. But I don’t think the Braves would take that, even if it would help their 2021 team. I’d imagine they would want one of Reyes, Liberatore or Thompson, plus a reliever and a prospect. Top 20 position players can be very valuable. And I wouldn’t trade all that for a guy I wasn’t fairly sure was gonna be a plus player in the OF for a while.
25 – I wonder if Top 100 minor league prospect lists put out every year are truly more accurate than Top 100 pre-draft lists. How can they place prospects on there that were just drafted in 2020, and place them higher than minor leaguers who have already produced at various levels. Anyway, thanks very much for your comments. Maybe we can find another
MLB ready player off that list that will be a good fit and won’t cost an arm and a leg in our players going to the other team.Reminds of the old Marge Schott line about scouts. “All they do is sit around and watch ball games.”
Here’s an article talking about the Twins’ needs:
TL; DR-They need utility infielders, DH, relievers and starters. Would Reyes and Edman be enough to pique their interest on Kiriloff? Add a reliever (Whitley might actually work here) and perhaps it may be enough. Plus it would take one of Shildt’s most overused toys away from him. Add a Kim signing and it would be a perfect off-season, IMO.
The Twins aren’t taking salary on. Plus I think Wong is a better long term asset. Edman is a classic utility player that teams might be willing to think is better than he really is.
Kiriloff 38.3
Reyes 14.3
Edman 13.5
Gant 9.6is 38.3 for 37.4, very close.
Whitley as 2.0 really doesn’t move the needle much. baseballtradevalues (simulator)That’s interesting, jj. Why would they have Whitley so low? I’d think he’s capable of putting up 3-4 WAR at minimum over his controllable years.
then subtract his salary, and they come up with 2mil surplus.
If you click on “about” it details their model, FWIW.
Ok, thanks.
Boy, they are really low on Paul Dejong ($4.3M value). They must feel he’s gonna drop off massively to be worth that over the rest of his control. I also see that Gallegos has big value ($25.5M) and they are high on Bader ($16.7M) and Carlson ($62.8M).
The Cardinals need to get Randy Aroxarena…Oh, they already had him and traded him away. Inexcusable!
Anyone think that Carlson might be starting in RF next year? We know that he’s gonna be there long term, so why not get him comfortable in his long term home? I feel like teams are too eager to play guys in multiple positions, which obviously takes away from some of their hitting prep.
Move Fowler to LF or better yet, to the bench. Either start O’Neill in LF or platoon him with Bader in CF if you find a LF bat.
I know what many people wish, same as they have for two years now, but I don’t think the Cards will mess with Fowler.
If I was managing the current roster, I would be playing Carlson in CF when Bader sits (against RHP) and in LF against LHP.
If others step up and actually play BETTER than Fowler, that would be the time to consider a change.
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