Cardinals’ Off-season Needs

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum Cardinals’ Off-season Needs

Viewing 25 posts - 376 through 400 (of 446 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #144845
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    That’s a very rosy picture, bc. I’m just not seeing it. I see a guy throwing 93-94 out of the pen (so 91 starting) without a lot of movement or any standout pitch. He gave up 22 HRs in Memphis last year and 18 the year before in Springfield. His career minor league WHIP is 1.38 and I doubt he will better that in the majors. He’s a guy to have in case of emergency, but doesn’t seem like a guy other teams would covet in a trade.

    #144846
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The numbers I see are that he gave up 27 home runs in 215 innings at the AAA level. That’s one home run every 8 innings as a starter. Is that excessive?

    #144849
    Avatarforsch31
    Participant

    Free

    Bccran, we have had quite a few pitchers come up and have a good rookie season with limited exposure. Once they get more innings thrown, they don’t fare as well. Ponce de leon is one example. I hope Woodford can make it as A ML starter. However, he will probably be a number 3, at best. That’s not worth a lot, just a little.

    #144850
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I would disagree that a #3-#4 starter isn’t worth much in a trade. Quite the contrary.

    #144851
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Joctober raising his FA stock with each series

    #144852
    Avatarforsch31
    Participant

    Free

    If he had achieved #3 starter status, that’s one thing. When his most likely scenario is either a #5 starter or middle relief, that’s something totally different.

    #144858
    Avatarmudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    CMart was good enough to be considered our top of rotation guy as recently as 2018. He’s only 28 years old and under contract for the next three years at a team friendly price for the kind of pitcher that he is. Before his injury (which did not require surgery) and the arrival of a bevy of talented, young Cardinal pitchers, he was probably untouchable. If he can prove himself capable of still pitching like a top of rotation guy, he is exactly what the Minnesota Twins need in order for them to go deep, deep into the postseason. If healthy and back to form, his trade value is astronomical. Let him pitch a few games during spring training to show that he’s healthy and back to form, then auction him off to the team that makes the best offer.

    #144860
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Wong – $12.5 million
    Martinez – $11.7 million
    1/2 Miller – $6.0 Miller

    Total savings – $30.2 million.

    I still think trading Wong is a mistake.

    No way you can trade CMart w/o eating money. He has very little value right now.

    Someone might take Miller for 6.0.

    #144861
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    CMart has value. We’ll have to agree to disagree on that.

    #144863
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Mudville and bccran, if other teams valued Carlos like you two do, I would trade him tomorrow for Alex Kirilloff and be one very pleased Cards fan. It’s just hard to see that. To get that sort of return I still think you have to add another major league piece plus a prospect. I’d be happy to be surprised though.

    I think the most likely scenario involves Carlos being a Cardinal next season though. He knows a good year gives him a shot to get his option picked up, so it would be nice to see him get back to that SP1/2 spot he was before.

    #144869
    AvatarPadsFS
    Participant

    Free

    bccran
    Participant

    Paid – Annual
    The same for Pederson, Pads?

    I don’t like Pederson as a fit.

    One, the Dodgers platooned him hard in 2020 so I don’t see him going to a situation where he is platooned. Second, the Cardinals aren’t going to give big money to a ‘platoon’ player, and honestly Fowler hasn’t been far off from Pederson when facing RH pitching, excluding his awful 2018. Third, Pederson hasn’t been playing CF for a couple years and the Dodgers aren’t even using him as a backup there, playing Bellinger, Taylor, and Pollack instead. Given that, you’d have to use him by shifting Carlson back and forth. I don’t like that idea either.

    #144873
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Pads, that’s an interesting take. I had to look up Fowler vs Pederson for right handers since 2016:

    16-Fowler .827 OPS, Pederson .918 OPS
    17-Fowler .883 OPS, Pederson .768 OPS
    18-Fowler .582 OPS, Pederson .893 OPS
    19-Fowler .775 OPS, Pederson .920 OPS
    20-Fowler .801 OPS, Pederson .677 OPS

    I don’t see those as super close, since Pederson has had three elite years vs RHP and will be 29, while Fowler has had only one and will be 35. I also think Pederson comes cheap after his bad 2020.

    To be clear, are you not a fan of Pederson specifically and would rather target someone else, or would you rather not go after any OFers at all?

    #144874
    AvatarPadsFS
    Participant

    Free

    The idea for Pederson is to get him as a platoon partner for Bader. I’d rather they not spend the likely 10M it would cost to get him on a one year deal for a platoon player.

    I’d prefer Brantley, then let the other guys compete for the two other spots.

    #144875
    Avatar1964cards
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Here are some thoughts:

    The economic uncertainty facing baseball will dictate Front Office behavior. I would imagine most GM’s will be looking to pare payroll and minimize risk with any trades or free agent signings. Having said this …

    CMart – a risky acquisition for another team. He has had physical problems the last three years. He has experienced a significant decline in innings pitched over that time frame (205 IP in 2017, 118 IP in 2018, 48 IP in 2019 and 20 IP in 2020). This creates too much uncertainty for any team to pick up a significant amount of his 2021 salary.

    Andrew Miller – will be 36. He is not the same pitcher who wowed people from 2912 thru 2017. He had a decent year in 2020. However, it was 13 innings over a 58 game schedule. Extrapolated, this is 36 innings over 162 games. Again, I cannot see another club willing to pick up a significant amount of his 2021 salary.

    Turner – will be 36 next season. He hits in a terrific line up. He would be moving into a line up that is in need of help. It surely does not provide Turner the protection he currently enjoys. A player that flourishes in LA may be an under performer in St Louis. I vote no.

    #144877
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The idea for Pederson is to get him as a platoon partner for Bader.

    For me, Pederson would be a platoon player with O’Neill.

    #144879
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Joc is raising his FA value this postseason. Another good series, if he gets one, puts his 2020 farther in the rear view mirror.

    #144880
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    In 2019, Carlos had a 3.17 ERA and 24 saves. In 2018 he had a 3.11 ERA as a starter and reliever. He has value.

    #144884
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I hope so because right now he’s expected to be in the rotation.

    #144885
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Did anyone say that Martinez has NO value? The question should be “how much?”

    Having said that, if anyone thinks his market value is not depressed right now, they are not being honest. His health and effectiveness are both open questions until he proves otherwise. There are also background questions about his make-up that are always there, like it or not, fair or not.

    I happen to think he can recover and return to some decent level of play as a starter. With that assumption, either giving him away for nothing or even worse, paying another team to take him, would be a bad idea.

    As I have said before, the earliest I would even consider trading him would be at the end of spring training (after a good camp and only if there were five other solid starters ready to go). (Of course, this assumes that no team would make a fair offer for him this winter.)

    Putting this back into the full context of the discussion, yes, the Cards could free up some salary by trading Martinez. But no, right now, I don’t think they would get much in return because his value is down currently. Just taking on his remaining salary commitment would be seen as a gamble by other organizations. Expecting a prospective trade partner to also include a difference-making hitter for the Cardinals, for example, would not be realistic right now.

    The old adage is “Buy low, sell high.” This would be just the opposite.

    #144886
    Avatar1964cards
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Could not agree more Brian.

    #144887
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    BW – Again, look at his 2018 and 2019 numbers. This year was an anomaly for a number of good players. We can agree to disagree. I think in addition to saving his salary a trade would fetch a good return.

    #144888
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Joc is raising his FA value this postseason. Another good series, if he gets one, puts his 2020 farther in the rear view mirror.

    Agreed, somewhat. I still think there’s enough market depression to push him under $10M, maybe as low as $6M on a 1 year deal. He’s another guy that having a DH would be a big boost.

    #144889
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The idea for Pederson is to get him as a platoon partner for Bader. I’d rather they not spend the likely 10M it would cost to get him on a one year deal for a platoon player.

    I’d prefer Brantley, then let the other guys compete for the two other spots.

    Pads, your argument is fair. I wouldn’t platoon him with Bader though. For me, he would platoon with O’Neill who would also see some time in CF if Fowler struggles or is injured. Carlson starts in CF and moves to RF permanently if Fowler struggles (which is where he should probably end up anyway).

    The thing I like about Pederson is that he’s not going to take up space beyond a year like Brantley will, will be cheaper and at his age the chance of regression is very low. Brantley is probably a better bet to hit better but will take 3 years to get and will be more expensive. That limits the flexibility for the 2021-22 free agent spending we could do..

    #144892
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    bccran said:

    BW – Again, look at his 2018 and 2019 numbers. This year was an anomaly for a number of good players. We can agree to disagree. I think in addition to saving his salary a trade would fetch a good return.

    I am highly familiar with those numbers, much of which were generated in a suboptimal role, relief. The fact is that it has been 2 1/2 seasons and counting since Martinez was an effective starter. Other teams don’t care about 2017 and the first half of 2018. That is ancient history.

    Signing up to take on a $13.5 million commitment for a reliever is not nearly as interesting to any team as a $13.5 million starter. I incorrectly thought that was understood.

    If the Cards could dump him and his entire salary plus get a “good return” (which of course is in the eye of he beholder – but surely not someone like Liberatore (hah!)) this winter, they should probably take it. It most likely won’t happen though – unless/until he reproves himself, which means next year.

    So, yes, we disagree.

    #144893
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    To discount his success as a closer in 2019 is silly. What do closers get paid nowadays in today’s MLB world?

Viewing 25 posts - 376 through 400 (of 446 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and minor league system for over 20 years