Cardinals’ Off-season Needs

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  • #144894
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    While you’re wishing, lets get the 2018 Carpenter back too.

    #144895
    Avatarbccran
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    jj – why don’t you look at guys like Bryant and Suarez and tell me 2020 was a normal year.

    #144896
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    To discount his success as a closer in 2019 is silly. What do closers get paid nowadays in today’s MLB world?

    We don’t even know if Martinez will be healthy enough to close. Further, he did not want to close with StL but understood that due to his balky shoulder, he had to. He wants to start and if he is told he is not doing so, it may affect his commitment to be ready every day. If I was a prospective trade partner, I would be concerned.

    To answer your question, it would be an overpay. Only four closers in all of MLB made more than $10.5 million in 2020. Keep digging…

    #144900
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Your goalposts are moving too fast for me, but plz add 2018 Carpenter to your wish list. Thanks. It would be awesome to see 2018 Carpenter and Martinez again in 2021.

    #144901
    Avatarbccran
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    jj – please back off. You’re being oblique, comparing apples to oranges.

    BW –

    Zimmerman
    Melancon
    Jansen
    Chapman
    Kennedy
    Kimbrel
    Smith
    Britton
    Familia
    Miller
    Robertson
    Quintana
    Treinen
    Ozuna

    All making at least $10 million.
    Don’t cherry pick just the closers.

    #144902
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Cherry pick? What? The discussion YOU started was about “closers”. That is precisely what YOU just wrote and that is exactly the question I answered.

    But since that didn’t give you what you wanted, you change to “relievers”. This moving target game you play when you paint yourself into a corner makes for a very frustrating discussion.

    But playing along, how many of those relievers make more than $13.5 million? Because again, that is what it would cost to trade Martinez and cover his remaining salary commitment. $10 million has nothing to do with Martinez, but you apparently had to lower that bar too to try to cover yourself.

    #144903
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    back off? really? so your in charge of telling poster when they can and can’t reply?

    I was supporting your wish list. I’ll do even better, if we could have 2018 Martinez and Carpenter back, I wouldn’t want to trade either one.

    #144904
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Yes, Martinez oblique is a serious injury, or was that name calling?

    Remember, we’re talking about the players, not each other.

    #144907
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    So it’s romper room again? LOL.

    #144910
    Avatarforsch31
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    bccran, name any of those relievers you listed that you would trade Carlson for in a 1 for 1 trade. Also, name any of them you would trade Nolan Gorman for in a 1 for 1 trade.

    #144912
    Avatarbccran
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    Besides the point, Forsch. BW has just said because of CMart’s injury history and poor performance in 2020 the Cardinals would give CMart and his salary away for free. I don’t think they would do that.
    Just a simple difference of opinion between Cardinal fans.

    #144913
    Avatarforsch31
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    He never said that the Cardinals would give CMart away for free.

    Also, it is the point. It is precisely what Brian is trying to get across to you. While CMart has SOME value, it is not that great when you consider his salary AS A RELIEVER. You know that you would not trade either of those prospects for any of the relievers you mentioned, especially at their salary.

    • This reply was modified 3 months ago by Avatarforsch31.
    • This reply was modified 3 months ago by Avatarforsch31.
    #144915
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran, that is NOT what I wrote. Fortunately, anyone can go back and read it. This discussion is ridiculous.

    #144919
    Avatarbccran
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    It’s not ridiculous at all, BW. You said he basically wasn’t worth his salary as a reliever, and that the Cards wouldn’t get much for him unless he proved he was healthy and had some good innings as a starter during ST. So right now, he’s only worth someone taking his salary off our hands. Right? Only get value back if he looks like value to another team as a starter because of his salary. I get it.

    #144920
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Anyone else notice the improvement in O’Neill’s BB/K ratios in 2020? They are sizable.

    He came into the season with a career 37.5% K%, and in 2020 brought it down to 27.4%. A 10% drop in K% is huge.
    Tyler’s career BB% was 5.8% and in 2020 bumped it up to 9.6%, again, huge improvement.

    #144922
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I noticed it, jj. But the unanswered question that bugs me is if he is sacrificing power to accomplish it. O’Neill’s slugging dropped from .500 his first year to .441 last year to .360 this. That is alarming to me. If he can’t hit for power, he isn’t going to start.

    P.S. If you prefer ISO, it isn’t as bad. From .252 to .149 to .187.

    #144924
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    O’Neill’s slugging dropped from .500 his first year to .441 last year to .360 this. That is alarming to me. If he can’t hit for power, he isn’t going to start.

    He had similar numbers of plate appearances each year and had 14 XBH in 2018, 11 in 2019 and 12 in 2020. So it seems like the difference in slugging has mostly been about the drop in singles. I still think the power is there and the approach will pay off in a non crazy year.

    #144925
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    That is why I added ISO on second thought – to exclude singles. In ISO, his 2020 was much better than 2019, but still much worse than 2018.

    #144926
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I saw that, BW. The thing I’m not sure of is if it’s a blip to correct the approach before he’s back to driving the ball or if he somehow is attempting to hit singles under the Albert approach. It seems like the sort of thing that works for a player like Kolten Wong who has little power anyway, but for a slugger it would seem you’re making them less effective power-wise for not much gain.

    I do know that if you had told me before 2020 that O’Neill would have his K and walks rates in the range they ended up (and especially leading up to there because they peaked late in the season), I would have bet we were looking at a 120-130 wRC+ player in LF. It was a perplexing year for Tyler.

    #144927
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The question is how many more chances will they give him to get into an effective balance? We saw what happened with all the chips on the line – O’Neill was parked on the bench in the biggest games of the year.

    His 2018 SLG coupled with his 2020 BB/K would be something. Just not sure if he can have it both ways.

    #144928
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    To me, that was on Shildt playing it safe and rolling with the lineup that performed well in the first two games. Maybe it does reflect on the way the organization views him.

    I can say this…in no way would I prioritize Dexter Fowler next year over Tyler O’Neill. If Fowler isn’t starting the year hitting as well as he did before his DL stint this season, I wouldn’t hesitate to bench him and ride with O’Neill the rest of the season. I wouldn’t really prioritize Bader over O’Neill either. We know exactly what Bader is, which is fine but not a likely answer to “who’s a starting OFer on a championship Cardinals team?” But I’m not Shildt and we’ve seen in the past that Mo has had to trade players away to get the manager to stop starting them, so perhaps Dexter will really get 500 PA of 95 wRC+ hitting in RF.

    #144929
    Avatarmudville
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    CMart’s ‘health’ has been head related more than anything else. He’s been showing up at spring training overweight and out of shape. This is much more correctable than elbow problems or shoulder issues. CMart still has a chance to grow up and start acting like a responsible adult. If that happens, and he returns to form, given his age, salary structure, and past performance, he has a whole lot of value. I agree that he should not be traded until he convinces others that he has value, and that might not be until the end of spring training, although I would be okay with trading him in April or May if the Twins, or another organization, wants to see him in a real game. I don’t want to dump CMart. That could very well turn out to be a humiliating move for the organization.

    #144930
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    I’ll start out by pointing to Tylers HR% is up from 19′, his X-base hit% is just slightly up (almost the same), but the telling category for me is X-base hit% jumped from 30% to 50%. That’s an outlier, why?

    This will sound odd, but hang with me, it’s telling me he lost his singles, which are also included in total bases (which slg% is based on).

    His PA’s in 19 & 20′ are very similar, his HR’s and doubles are similar again, so where did the slg% go? His hits vary by 13, and X-base hit total bases vary by only one. It’s the singles.

    You know the BAbip for his 2020, and the BA result, but I think it has affected his slg% too. With 7 more singles, at a more normal BAbip, he’s at .410 slg%, and his 2020 (edit-slg%) pretty much mirrors his 2019.

    I’m not trying to give him credit for something he didn’t do, but I’m seeing his singles affecting his slg%, and not a loss of x-base hit “power”.

    I’m glad you are asking yourself that question because it made me look for the slg% loss, and I hadn’t until now.

    • This reply was modified 3 months ago by jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl.
    #144932
    Avatarforsch31
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    bccran

    Zimmerman
    Melancon
    Jansen
    Chapman
    Kennedy
    Kimbrel
    Smith
    Britton
    Familia
    Miller
    Robertson
    Quintana
    Treinen
    Ozuna

    All making at least $10 million.
    Don’t cherry pick just the closers.

    Zimmerman (he has made 2 relief appearances in the major leagues)
    Melancon (one of the best closers when he signed @ $14 million)
    Jansen (the premier closer in the game signed by the Dodgers @ $18 million)
    Chapman (the top free agent closer when he signed with the Yankees @ $16 million)
    Kennedy (signed by the Royals as a SP @ $16.5 million)
    Kimbrel (the premier closer when he signed with the Cubs @ $16 million)
    Smith (one of the best left handed closers when he signed @ $13 million)
    Britton (one of the best left handed relievers when signed by the Yankees @ $13 million)
    Familia (saved 51 games in 2016. Current contract AAV $10 million with Mets)
    Miller (left handed reliever currently needing to be traded to relieve salary concerns)
    Robertson (a top reliever when signed by Phillies $11 million)
    Quintana (7 relief appearances in his career)
    Treinen (had been A’s closer when signed by Dodgers @ $10 million)
    Ozuna (a top notch closer @ $10 million)

    So what this list tells me is that we either need to trade CMart as a starter (Zimmerman, Kennedy and Quintana), turn him into a left handed reliever (Miller, Britton, Smith and Chapman), make sure he is one of the elite closers (Osuna, Familia, Kimbrel, Smith, Chapman and Jansen) or trade him to a deep pocket club (Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Yankees and Mets – 7 of the 11 relievers).

    #144933
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    I don’t prefer ISO, just me, the difference in BA’s can warp the view of “power”.

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