Cardinals’ Off-season Needs

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  • #144783
    Avatarbccran
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    Seems to me that every serious contending team has a at least one (and in many cases two) experienced, proven outfielders that they can count on. Contenders our own division alone –

    Cubs – Happ and Heyward
    Brewers – Yelich and Braun
    Reds – Castellanos and Wikler

    #144794
    Avatargscottar
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    forsch31 wrote:

    OK, bccran, how do you do this within DeWitt’s budget and the Cardinals’ way of doing business?

    This is the question that the dreamers like to sweep under the carpet.

    #144796
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    forsch31 wrote:

    On Turner, I get the caution about his age and continued ability to hit. However, unless I am missing something, he doesn’t seem to be slowing down very much. If we could sign him to a 2 year contract with a team option for a third year, I think he upgrades the team the most.

    I am a big Turner fan and he would be a good fit for us because he wouldn’t block Gorman. I do think he is slowing down a bit though and his age is a big concern. If we could do one year at $10M with an option for another year at $10M with a $2M buyout I would do it. Turner would probably want more than that though.

    #144797
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    jj wrote:

    “…who want to throw away a potential 95 win team in 2022-23 to upgrade an 85 win team to 86 wins in 2021.”

    If I could post, paste, copy whatever it’s called; I’d repeat this comment about 5 times in a row, for effect.

    Amen brother! 2021 should be about modest upgrades, tinkering, and trying to remove a bit of dead wood. That doesn’t me we can’t win. This group isn’t far off from being a true contender.

    But 2022 should be the big splash if we don’t screw it up before then by overspending on the wrong players and our FO’s fetish with internal extensions. In 2022 we should be FLUSH with payroll room and guys like Gorman, Montero, Liberatore, and Thompson should be ready to contribute and Carlson should be going full throttle. That is is the year for the big trade or big FA signing or both!

    We need to have the patience and discipline to do this the right way and not blow it! Our FO made some mistakes in the last few years and they all can’t be corrected at once. It is a process.

    #144799
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    But 2022 should be the big splash if we don’t screw it up before then by overspending on the wrong players and our FO’s fetish with internal extensions.

    Ha ha. The only one I’d be willing to explore an extension for would be Flaherty, and we’ve seen that he probably won’t want to go that route. But if he would, I’d consider it. Hudson would have been another before his injury.

    But you are right. The other thing of note is that the Cubs are clearly heading in the wrong direction and their best players are all coming to free agency in the next couple years. The Brewers made a nice push for a couple of years but their farm isn’t super strong and they aren’t big spenders anyway. The Pirates are…well, the Pirates. The Reds could be solid if they build well. So the Central is set up to be our playground for that 2022-24 time frame if Mo and company make wise choices. That would also depend on our prospects (Carlson, Gorman, Libby, etc) panning out reasonably well too.

    #144802
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    VEB has a different take on the Arozarena-Liberatore trade.

    https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/10/17/21518050/arozarena-trade-martinez-liberatore

    #144804
    Avatarbccran
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    Forsch –

    I’ll Post this for the third time, at the risk of another broken record picture.

    1.) ExercIse the option on Wong and then trade him. Get some value for him. Edman plays second, leads off, and Carlson bats second. Sosa is your versatile backup infielder.

    2.) Trade Martinez and get some value for him.

    3.) Trade Miller to someone who will pick up half his salary.

    You’ve just freed up $30 million that you can use to sign Brantley and Turner. You’ve solved 3B and LF for 2021, Plus you’ve gotten some value for Wong and Martinez. Hopefully several high ceiling youngsters (outfielders?) who can help in 2022 and beyond.

    #144805
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    I’ll Post this for the third time, at the risk of another broken record picture.

    1.) ExercIse the option on Wong and then trade him. Get some value for him. Edman plays second, leads off, and Carlson bats second. Sosa is your versatile backup infielder.

    2.) Trade Martinez and get some value for him.

    3.) Trade Miller to someone who will pick up half his salary.

    You’ve just freed up $30 million that you can use to sign Brantley and Turner. You’ve solved 3B and LF for 2021, Plus you’ve gotten some value for Wong and Martinez. Hopefully several high ceiling youngsters (outfielders?) who can help in 2022 and beyond.

    1. Trading Wong would be a mistake. He is the best defensive 2B in MLB. Edman playing everyday at 2B would be a significant hit to our defense.

    2. We would have to eat at least half of CMart’s salary.

    3. We would have to eat at least half of Miller’s salary.

    The savings wouldn’t be $30M.

    #144806
    Avatarbccran
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    I don’t think we would have to eat half of Martinez’s salary. He’s a high end talent.

    In the $30 million savings, you’ll see I already factored in half of Miller’s salary.

    I wouldn’t downplay Edman’s defensive abilities.

    #144807
    Avatarbccran
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    Wong – $12.5 million
    Martinez – $11.7 million
    1/2 Miller – $6.0 Miller

    Total savings – $30.2 million.

    #144808
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    A players trade value is best demonstrated by what other clubs would be willing to sign him for as a FA. As FA’s our three might sign for 24mil combined, on one year deals. That’s without the signing club giving up any of their “high ceiling youngsters”.

    For STL to acquire said youngsters in trade, the acquiring club pays less of our three’s salaries, and STL assumes more of the 24mil (est.) value. Now consider “high ceiling youngsters” are the most valuable commodity in MLB, in what you expect to be a depressed market this winter, and the 30mil and prospects seems very unrealistic.

    #144809
    AvatarOnyxgem
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    Edman’s defense would be a big downgrade and not even sure he really much of an upgrade if any at all on offense over Wong…

    #144811
    Avatarbccran
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    That’s not the point, Onyx. It’s a matter of trading to clear payroll. There are only certain players that you can do that with. You can’t do it with Carp. It would be a long shot with Fowler. These are high salaried aging stars. But with Wong and Carlos you have younger talented players, who could bring some value in return.
    Right now, there’s not a ready internal
    replacement in the OF or at 3B. Edman may not be as good defensively at 2B at Wong, but sometimes you have to trade value to fill needs.

    #144813
    Avatarforsch31
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    Turner just had an OPS+ of 135. That was 52nd in the majors when you consider only players with more than 100 PAs. It would be the second highest on the Cardinals. He was paid $20 million for 2020. I think it will take at least $18 million AAV if you only want to sign him for 2 years. Probably more.

    Brantley’s last 3 years OPS+ are 124, 126 and 126. The AAV on the 2 year contract with the Astros was $16 million. This is probably his last opportunity for a big contract. I think it will take at least $18 million AAV for 2 years to sign him, as well. He will probably be looking for 3-4 years or more. Maybe we could make his a little back loaded.

    I agree that if we trade Wong, CMart and Miller, we will not get high ceiling prospects unless we include more value (prospects, ML players or money). Or you get someone like O’Neill, a prospect has huge potential but a lot of hurdles to jump to get there. The only one of those 3 that I would “salary dump” is Miller.

    #144824
    Avatarbccran
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    So you think if the Cards trade Wong and Martinez they won’t get much back?

    #144828
    AvatarPadsFS
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    Edman would not be much worse defensively, if any, than Wong at 2B. Have y’all been watching him? He is very gifted defensively.

    I also don’t mind keeping Wong and letting Edman play 3B on a nearly full-time basis. The only reason to trade Wong is to get some payroll space for Brantley.

    The problem with Turner is there is no way the Dodgers don’t re-sign him or that he wouldn’t want to stay there.

    #144832
    Avatarbccran
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    The same for Pederson, Pads?

    #144833
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    So you think if the Cards trade Wong and Martinez they won’t get much back?

    Wong would get a decent prospect, but the only way to get a good one back for Cmart would be to package him with another player or two.

    I’ll also add that while trading Wong to get Turner sounds good, remember that we have multiple 3B in our top 10 prospects right now, while we have 0 2B anywhere near making an impact in our system. I’d rather find the money elsewhere than trading our Gold Glove up the middle defense away.

    #144836
    Avatarmudville
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    I completely disagree that CMart has little value.

    #144839
    Avatarbccran
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    Both Wong and Martinez have good trade value. Throw in a pitcher or two like Woodford or Rondon and you might be surprised at what you get.

    #144840
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Wong is a rental player. He will not get you a top 100 prospect although maybe could net us something similar to Tommy Pham’s trade…a couple guys in a team’s #10-15 prospects range.

    Martinez has one guaranteed year left, is making almost $12m (and has a clause where he will be paid $1m more if traded), was a reliever in 2019 and had a bad 2020. He’s also freshly injured, with no idea about the severity. Someone might bet on his talent if we are willing to give him away for salary…but that doesn’t mean the Cards would get value for him straight up. Either they’ll have to chip in someone else (better than Woodford, a classic AAAA pitcher in the Mayers mold) or they’ll have eat salary. With a creative trade the Cards might be able to get a top 100 guy if willing to add someone like Gomber and another prospect to the deal plus eat some money.

    #144841
    Avatarbccran
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    I wouldn’t necessarily categorize Woodford the way you do. Do you know where he came in as far as starting pitcher ERA in the 16 team PCL?

    #144842
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I wouldn’t necessarily categorize Woodford the way you do. Do you know where he came in as far as starting pitcher ERA in the 16 team PCL?

    Yep, as I posted it here last year as it was happening (he was 3rd).

    I also think he doesn’t have the stuff to compete at the big league level. He gave up 7 HRs in 21 innings this year.

    #144843
    Avatarbccran
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    That’s right, he gave up home runs his first limited exposure at the ML level. That’s something he needs to work on. But also he gave up a little less than one hit per inning and had a major league WHIP of 1.19 in a role that he wasn’t used to. He was in 12 major league games and had only one start.

    #144844
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    Also, 25, in the one start he was given, he faced 10 batters, walked none, and only gave up one hit. But you’re right about honers, that one hit he gave up to those 10 batters was indeed a home run.

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