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Mark Lerner all but says good-bye to Bryce Harper today in candid interview: Nationals' offer to Bryce Harper 'best we can do' | 106.7 The Fan https://t.co/4nnFoExzqK
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 7, 2018
Nationals owner Mark Lerner on Bryce Harper: "I think they’ve decided to move on" https://t.co/ch6vZ2YYj4
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) December 7, 2018
I know many don’t want him because they think he cost too much. But one thing that never gets talked about is revenue generated by a star player like Harper. You have to consider jersey/apparel sales, ticket sales, etc. when factoring his impact. It’s not just on field production although that is clearly a lead factor. As much as Cardinal Nation loves its heros and buys team gear this would be a grand slam with him and Goldschmidt at the team store. To me it makes sense to go for it with this young player, who can turn into your cornerstone player at age 27. Not too many like that out there ever. The Cardinals would be must see and would have a deep and powerful lineup. Probably won’t happen but I can see the many positives to such a deal.
Probably the reason it is not talked about is that all team merchandise revenue goes into a central MLB revenue sharing fund.
But one thing that never gets talked about is revenue generated by a star player like Harper.
That’s really the only thing that should be talked about. How much marginal revenue for the club? From labor economics, you know that a person should be paid based on their marginal product of labor – how much they generate for a company (there are other forces, such as labor demand, etc, but we’ll test it out).
The Cardinals average 42,000 per game. Busch Statium seats 45,500. So, they can add 3,500 more per game on average. 3,500 x $30 avg seat price x 81 games = $8.5 million.
Now, let’s say they increase seat prices by 10% or $3 per game. 45,500 x $3 x 81 = $11 million.
Let’s talk concessions. Let’s say the average fan spends $35 on concessions per game and the club makes 10% (before you laugh, figure their game day operating expenses come out of concession sales – such as electricity for the ballpark, security, vendors, CGS, etc). So, that’s 3,500 x $3.50 X 81 = $1 million.
Finally, let’s say the club makes the playoffs because they add Harper instead of Michael Brantley. Each home game would bring $33 in ticket sales and $3.50 in concession sales or about $1.6 million in additional revenues. So, they have to play 6 home games in the playoffs to bring in an additional $10 million in revenue. That means they need to at least make it to the Championship Series.
Now, the Cardinals own part of their television network (do they still after it’s been sold?), maybe they also see an increase in advertising revenues during games.
But, if the Cardinals increased stadium capacity to over 99% AND increased ticket prices by 10%, they would be assured of about $20 million in increased revenue with Harper.
If they make it to the League Championship every year, they could get an extra $10 million.
But then you have to figure most employers only pay employees about 1/3 of what they actually generate for the company, and companies have cost of financing and internal rates of returns, etc.
In other words, Harper does not make financial sense for the Cardinals.
He probably does make financial sense for the Phillies, who only averaged 26,000 fans last year, down from a high of 45,000 when they were going to the playoffs every year.
It is just baffling that the FO doesn
t go after Harper. LH bat who is entering his prime and the BS about him being a bad OF is just that BS.Signing Harper would give the Cards a power bat for years (a LH bat that the system is a few years away from having near MLB ready) having harper would lessen the sting if Goldy and Ozuna depart6 after 2019 and Whos to say Carpenter will still be a effective player after next season,Plus Gyorko has a option for after 2019.Cards could end up losing Goldy,Ozuna,Gyorko and possibly Carpenter after 2019.maybe Goldy likes STLouis and decides to stay…3-5 years 20-30 million a year? Thas crazy for a guy who will already be 32 before end of 2019 season.Will the money probably coming off the books…Wainwright, probably Ozuna,Wacha,Gregerson etc after 2019 the Cards can afford to sign Harper.Passing on a chance to sign a cornerstone player in his prime and not making a real effort is just plain dumb business IMHO.I like Goldschimdt and think he will be a fine addition….. I just wish there was a little longer plan in place instead of just plugging one hole and ignoring the other leak.If you have 2 flat tires you don`t just fix one do you and hope that you can race on 3 tires do you?Teams have to make tradeoffs. The Cardinals had a major hole for 2019 and they filled it. So now the worries shift to 2020 and beyond. Why not enjoy 2019 first and give them a chance to address later on later on?
Brian -why not do a little early smart shopping now? Do you think Arenado and Rendon will be cheap signs next offseason… Of course you don
t ..the cost of doing business isnt going to get cheaper for good players IMHO.I like both Arenado and Rendon but both will be young (Arenado 28,rendon 29 entering free agency at a prime defensive position and both have big bats and will likely be in the 20 plus to 30 -plus million yearly salary in Free agency.If Cards dont feel comfortable paying a 26 year OF who would fill a major need right now then why would anyone feel that Cards would try for Renado?Rendon and what one of them would likely cost?Yes signing Harper would likely sting BDW a little this season by raising payroll to a team record high level but as pointed out earlier there will be a decent amount of dollars coming off payroll after 2019.That would lessen the sting a bit one would think.I just hate the thought of going into the 2019 offseason needing to find a 1B,Possibly two 3B,maybe a LF, 2 SP. THe SP could possibly be filled internally,LF could maybe be ONeill/Thomas .3B Gyorko or Carpenter maybe 3B ( I doubt Carpenters rag arm holds up a full season at 3B so if Goldy walks then Carpenter could move to 1B again (yuck).Enough with the short-term patches…fix the damn thing.Hey thank you for educating me on that point. Didn’t know that. But still believe there would be a boost in income with a star player. There has to be. Now what that is I couldn’t tell you.
Why not enjoy 2019 first and give them a chance to address later on later on?
BW: That’s exactly the kind of thinking we have to avoid, and that’s why I said yesterday after the news conference that these guys seemed entirely too self-satisfied with the Goldy move. You can’t run a gazillion-dollar business that way. You have to keep thinking/planning/moving ahead. I’m no great Harper lover, but why not give it a serious try? Goldy didn’t solve the RF situation and those counting on O’Neill or a resurgent Fowler may be setting themselves up for disappointment. You can never have too much talent.
CIF, I did not mean to suggest the Cardinals are not “thinking/planning/moving ahead”. I am sure they do have plans. They just are not telling us. But it appears those plans do not include Harper. It appears.
I get that it is fun for all of us to believe in our hearts we could run an MLB team better than the guys who do it for a living. It would just be proven to be false.
I don’t agree with everything they do, but I also realize I have incomplete information.
TexasCard, if you haven’t, please read C2016’s post above. He concludes that Harper’s residual impact would be greater to a franchise that is not already as successful as St. Louis.
When you have budding possible young stars like DeJong, Bader, and O’Neill you need veteran leadership to show them the way. IMO Goldy is a much better person to provide that leadership than Harper.
A lot of things to consider regarding Harper:
1. Obviously the huge financial outlay.
2. If you did sign him you would basically being saying to the world we are going to eat the Fowler contract.
3. Our lineup looks pretty good for 2019 right now. It might make more sense to spend the rest of our budget on the bullpen or maybe go crazy and trade for an ace for the rotation.
4. Instead of spending $350M on Harper we could save that money and go after Arenado next winter and re-sign Goldy. Wouldn’t they look good at 3-4 in the lineup for the future? Of course we don’t want to block Gorman so you have to consider that even though he hasn’t even made it to High A yet.
At the end of the day I think the Cards will stay in the periphery of the Harper sweepstakes in case something falls into their lap but I don’t think they will pull the trigger on it. We have our big bat and it makes sense to focus on other things right now.
Jennifer Langosch reports that the Cardinals will no longer pursue Harper since they were successful in getting Goldy. So Harper discussions are probably pretty passé. A backup catcher, a LH hitting 4-5th outfielder, and the left side of bullpen is a different story.
Of course we don’t want to block Gorman so you have to consider that even though he hasn’t even made it to High A yet.
You know the production of Arenado. You don’t know the future production of Gorman. Depending on the cost, it might be advisable to sign Arenado.
Gorman could always move to 1B. Nunez could become our SS of the future. They could be used to trade for premier players at other positions.
Why would the Cards spend the money for Arenado next offseason when they won`t spend on Harper now? Harper is younger and fits a need now.Arenado will likely cost as much as Harpers reputed cost.So wheres the win on that?
I like Goldschimdt and think he will be excellent for the Cards.I don`t agree with people that seem to think Harper might be some bad presence in the clubhouse or he could have some negative effect on the team.
I am not usually a FO basher.But this time the FO is half-assing it IMHO.Now is the chance to make a upgrade and a statement that we are tired of hanging around the fringes of contention and are going to get better.Band-aids are not long term solutions.Band-aids might stop the bleeding but they are not long term fixes.
1. They have a good team this year, we don’t know what they will have next year, except a bunch of holes once the clock strikes midnight
2. Harper has always seemed a me-first player, Arenado just goes about his business (extremely well)
3. Arenado’s defense is fantasticBw52
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Why would the Cards spend the money for Arenado next offseason when they won`t spend on Harper now? Harper is younger and fits a need now.Arenado will likely cost as much as Harpers reputed cost.So wheres the win on that?I don’t think Arenado’s contract will be as big as Harper’s plus you have to add another $50M to the cost of Harper because you would have to eat Fowler’s contract. We wouldn’t have to eat a bad contract by acquiring Arenado. The question would be would you want to block our 3B hot shots in the minors.
“So Harper discussions are probably pretty passé”
So are comments about Matheny but you have no trouble with those. At least Harper is relevant.
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