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Well Meisner just surfaced on the beach at Palm Beach.
Good to see Helsley getting a good game under his belt for Springfield. In that game Urias was HBP in the sixth, ran for himself but replaced by Sosa at 3B for the seventh. I hope it was just a prudent move.
1B Nogowski has taken over the TL leardership in RBIs. He now has 18 in the 16 games he’s played (57 ABs). Also he has 4HRs and is hitting .386 and impressively has 6 BB and only 3 Ks. The thing for him is that he still has Carpenter-Martinez-Voit-Ravelo ahead of him on the depth chart. I think he’d have no problems playing for Memphis right now. He’s pretty quick at first for a 6’2″ 210 pounder.
Urias took a 90+ mph fastball off his helmet in the sixth, so my guess would be a precautionary move. He appeared to be fine.
The Peoria tandem of Yepez-Montero-YGonzalez are filling the 3-4-5 spots in the Chief’s order. All 3 are corner infielders with Yepes at 1B, Montero at 3B and YGonzalez covering both 1B and 3B as the rotate as DHs so that they all get ABs.
20 year old Yepes is on fire. He leads the MWL in hitting .443 OBP .500 SLG. and .672 and OPS 1.172 and is second in RBIs 16. Montero still 19y.o. is third in the league in hitting .386 and OPS 1.050. These two are very young for A ball, but are dominating the pitching there. Incredible. YGonzalez is older at 23 and has been a consistent hitter in his entire time in the organization.
Montero is rule 5 eligible in the off season. Is the best strategy in that case to leave him in low A which almost no one gets selected from. Or push him up 1-2 levels and really see what you have – but everone else sees as well?
There’s been a lot of talk about our corner infielders recently. They are two spots we have had trouble with the last few seasons. Now it seems the pipeline is backing up, very good young talent needs to move up.
First Base:
*Memphis- Voit and Ravelo… in a pinch they could fill in for STL. Both have MLB experience.*Springfield- Nogowski .386 second in the TL in RBIs- 18.
*Palm Beach- Trosclair. Having trouble getting going in ’18, Has played second in the past, but Young now plays there.
*Peoria- Yepez, very young but too good for low-A
^EST- Cedeno 19, Kirtley 21 and now Whalen 20.
Third base:
*Memphis- Wisdom .283, may be vulnerable to those looking to move up.*Springfield: Edman and Seferina splitting time there because of Sosa and Urias. No INF spots available.
*Palm Beach: Mendoza 21 y.o. Solid .312
*Peoria: Montero .386 also very young at 20.
*Est: Williams 18
Some very good prospective talent now and adding to the depth. The organization has been somewhat lucky in filling the void at these two positions, but the real talent is still 3 years away, unless pushed.
Hochman:
Cards’ Flaherty a phenom as Mets’ Harvey once was.
Story about both Harvey and Flaherty. Because of injury and ailments the once highly-hyped Harvey has been put in the ‘pen and very angry about his present situation. He was once on top of the world in NY.
Has Flaherty become the new Harvey? Once he gets settled in the St Louis rotation he may have to deal with the same troubles that Harvey is going through. Jack needs to be cognizant of the fact that getting to the top is not a given. There are potholes everywhere that need to be avoided.
Just being mentioned on the topic of Harvey’s potential should be very satisfying for Flaherty. Super-star potential is one thing, performance needs to follow.
CC, how do you calculate that Montero would be Rule 5 eligible in 2018? My assessment is not until 2019.
Brian, I believe Montero signed in Aug of 2014 when he turned 16. 2018 will be the 5th rule 5 draft since his signing. (’14,’15,’16,’17, ’18)
Here is a Sept 2014 link to the signing. https://mobile.twitter.com/iplbaseball_rd/status/507949213578428416
I believe 2014 does not count toward the five years. Montero’s official signing date is August 29, 2014. I suspect that date was not a coincidence as the 2014 DSL season ended on August 23. Had he been signed a week earlier, the Cards would have forfeited a year of control for zero benefit. Of course, they know the rules better than us.
Here is the applicable verbiage.
If a player signs his first contract after the conclusion of the season of the MLB or minor league club to which he is first assigned (even if he signs prior to the Rule 5 Draft), the next season is considered to be the player’s “first qualified season” for Rule 5 eligibility purposes.
I will leave it to guys a lot sharper than me to figure out the rule and how it is interpreted. Brian I will call out around page 13 of your prospect guide you have Montero listed as 2018 as year to have to protect.
That is why I had this season in my mind as a key decision year. I hope we find we have another year. Because with as many teams tanking as there is I am sure it would be more than padres we would need to worry about in a rule 5 situation.
Who are the interesting Rule 5 candidates coming after this season. Poncedeleon and Wisdom have been thru this before, with one scaring teams away with his injury comeback, and the other just not hitting for enough contact. Wisdom would also be a 7 year free agent I believe. Junior Fernandez would be a first year Rule 5er. Are there many other notables? It doesn’t look like the Cards will have as many decisions as last year.
Wow, if Williams can keep pitching well maybe he can get a cup of coffee at Memphis. That might make the Cards 40 man roster choices more difficult.
vegas, that goes to show you – don’t believe everything you read! 😉
Bottom line – I am positive that what I posted this morning is correct and why Montero will not be Rule 5 eligible until 2019.
What ticks me off about the mistake in the Prospect Guide is that my detailed spreadsheet is correct, which is where I checked after I saw CC’s post. I erred when creating the table of the Rule 5 eligible players for the book, which I was unaware of until you pointed it out. There is no place outside of MLB’s own systems that has all this stuff. I track it all manually and in the Guide, made a mistake.
Thank you for your business, for reading the Guide and commenting!
Rule 5 locks:
Greene
Helsley
SchrockGood chance:
Fernandez
PoncedeleonMaking a case:
Ellis
Thomas
WilliamsPotential Minor League FA’s fighting for a spot:
Wisdom
Nogaski
Ravelo
UriasLongshots:
Ynfante
Seferina
Evans and a host of other relieversBrian, I will certainly refer to your wisdom regarding Montero;especially since I thought I was paraphrasing the eligibility rule from something I had read that you wrote. If it had the end of season disclaimer I missed it but I also understand you may have left it off for simplicity purposes since a case such as Montero’s is so rare.
The idea of the feared Padres picking one of our un protected Rule 5 guys is so overblown. Last year people were bringing up the subject approaching the Rule 5 draft fully unaware that the Padres had a full 40 man roster.
I have seen Montero listed as eligible on other lists on other sites such as roster resource https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-st-louis-cardinals/
But I trust Brian’s knowledge.
I appreciate the vote of confidence, CC. As I said above, I am positive about this, though I would not be critical of those who may have missed the unusual date situation with Montero. That is why I asked you first how you came to your conclusion – just in case I missed something. This stuff can be quite complicated.
O’Reilly just brought up to Springfield to replace the injured Jones and Tewes and in his first AA start
last night just continued to succeed as he has with every promotion. His pro career stats are very impressive, 17-5 2.28ERA ,.217AVR and only 29BBs in 206inn which helps puts his WHIP at .093. These are impressive numbers.He received a GS of 65 and it was even more impressive because it was against the Arkansas Travelers who lead the TL in OBP (.373).
O’Reilly(23) was the Card’s 27th rd pick in ’16. The 5’11” 180 righty out of Flagler College has been pitching like a #1 pick. I’m thinking that if he was selected earlier in the draft his prospect ranking would be a lot higher than #33. (#37 on BW’s April list). Right now he is outpacing his potential with just plain old performance.
I can’t say what his ceiling is but it has been rising since his days at GCL-Cards in ’16. O’Reilly is just one gutsy guy and should be added to the prospect radar screen as a quick riser.
I may have to get around to renewing my subscription just to find out how Brian justified dropping O’Riley 4 spots after the start to the year he has had.
GOMBER UP – FLAHERTY DOWN
At first glimpse, this seems to be a strange move. However the shortage of lefties in the Card’s bullpen puts another Redbird starter in a reliever role (also Gant). The MEM rotation has been put on its’ head in trying to keep up with the demand by the big club. I’m not sure if Gomber was expecting this to be his dream MLB debut and as the “long man” may not even get into a game before he is sent back as Tuivailala returns.
Springfield is also down one starter with two DLed and O’Reilly sent up from PB. PB’s starter last night, Shew, left his start after 3.1 and had just thrown a wild pitch. I haven’t heard a report on that. Jake Walsh is an option to be moved up, or Austin Sexton/Andrew Summerville from EST.
Memphis has already had two bullpen starts this week (Thurs.-Sat.) and one on the 19th (2nd game of DH), and yet another possibly today. Their bullpen is stretched thin. Another reliever, Herget is now scheduled to start a game either Monday or Tuesday before Poncedeleon’s turn comes up.
I dont see a huge roster crunch. We have 4 pending FA’s in Pena, Waino, Norris, and Holland. My guess is Tui or Bowman is gone before the season is over. Sosa is at risk for removal. Garcia is a possible non tender/trade candidate. Any other 2:1 trade by Grish and we have lots of room. What will cause havoc is if we add guys befote it is necessary such as A.Garcia, Arozarena, Hudson, or Knizer.
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