Affiliate Observations 2020

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  • #120647
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Only 31 of the Pipeline top 50 MLB prospects have ETAs of 2020. White Sox and Braves have 3 each in that category.

    I count 7 in our top-25 with ETAs of 2020. Some will arrive and others won’t but using the ETAs is another factor in rating the system at the present.

    #120654
    Avatargscottar
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    Let’s not forget about Darlin Moquete. He was one of the best players in the DSL last year and hopefully he can produce stateside this year. I also hope the Cardinals don’t ship him off too early like they did Burgos.

    #120655
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The community here ranked Moquete no. 63 for 2020. He was an honorable mention in the overall scoring.

    #120657
    Avatargscottar
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    Yep. I had Moquete number 35 in my personal rankings, perhaps overly ambitious. The point is we may still have some OF’s in the lower ranks worth keeping an eye on.

    #120659
    Avatargscottar
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    Another data point beyond the cumulative winning percentage of the Cardinals farm teams ranking 29th of 30 last season is this. Carlson was the only Cardinals post-season All-Star, hitter or pitcher, across the six different leagues that had them. All-stars are chosen by the league managers and coaches and media members, not those “biased” national raters who always overlook the Cardinals.

    I do not understand when some folks assert this is a top 10 system. Lotsa words, but results speak louder. Quantity is good, as that depth means winning teams, but star power is the differentiator. Last year, the Cardinals system was short on both.

    Brian, I agree with you on the surface that W/L records of the affiliates could very well be an indicator of the strength of the farm system but there is also an argument that it isn’t. Considering that the minor league teams mainly serve as a feeder system for the big league club and considering that minor league rosters are incredibly transient throughout the year I think W/L records can be a bit deceiving.

    Hypothetically, if the Cardinals had six minor league players in the overall top 100 but each of those players were at a different affiliate it would be possible to have a highly rated farm system but six poor teams. This might be an extreme example but the point is that the talent may not be distributed evenly and may be top heavy.

    #120660
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    No doubt Moquete had a great season for Blue but he was the second oldest on the team. He is almost a full year older than Ivan Herrera and Gorman and just a year younger than Carlson. I took that into account when ranking Moquete but still had him in my top-50.

    He is now more age appropriate for Johnson City and he’s going to have be ready for Peoria in ’21…. before the possible of shutting down of State College and Johnson City next year.

    #120661
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    the point is that the talent may not be distributed evenly and may be top heavy.

    In my opinion this is the fourth season that the system is top heavy and is even more so right now because of the lack of good prospects (pitchers and posistions) at the lower levels starting with Palm Beach. It could lead to some dark days and the Cards having to pay up to acquire MLB players down the road because the cupboard will have dried up.

    ps. Liberatore was a great start to back loading the system, but there’s more work to do there.

    #120665
    AvatarCardinals27
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    I think there is enough depth near the top to buy time for backfilling from lower levels. I think the 2019 draft will produce a number of quality starting pitching candidates for Peoria and Palm Beach.

    #120667
    Avatargscottar
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    The 2020 draft looks to be huge in re-stocking the system also.

    We have five draft picks in the top 101.

    21
    55
    64
    71
    101

    #120669
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Yup, Gscottar. The swap down with Tampa will hurt a little, but hopefully the scouts can find some talent with those second round/sandwich picks. Last year we got Trejyn Fletcher with a pick in that range. I’d like to see some balance with a high ceiling flyer and some good bets on college talent.

    #120671
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    gscottar said:

    …I think W/L records can be a bit deceiving.

    Hypothetically, if the Cardinals had six minor league players in the overall top 100 but each of those players were at a different affiliate it would be possible to have a highly rated farm system but six poor teams.

    This might be an extreme example but the point is that the talent may not be distributed evenly and may be top heavy.

    First of all, I want to be very clear. The number of top 100 national prospects IS NOT related to team W/L record. The former is a reflection of top talent only. This is also what many raters of farm systems focus on when ranking systems. In this measure, the Cards are better off than last year due to the addition of Liberatore. That gives them three in the top 100 instead of just two. (3 1/3 top 100 spots would be any of the 30 organizations’ “fair share”, though obviously not all top 100 prospects are equal. The Cards guys are more top half of the 100, which is better.)

    The latter, W/L, is a reflection of system depth and breadth. I am focusing on the latter the rest of the way.

    The 2019 W/L record of the system was 29th in MLB. It was the worst year in the system since 2001. To the breadth and depth point, the Cards system had winning records in eight of the prior nine years. Rosters are “transient” every year, but they almost always win anyway. However, in 2019, the system total was 67 games under .500. Just three of nine teams had winning records, none of which are full-season teams.

    As to the top heavy theory in terms of breadth and depth, the results don’t show it. Memphis was as far as 21 games under in late July before getting close to .500 at the end. Springfield finished dead last in both halves of the season, even with Carlson. They were 20 games under .500 for the second straight year. Palm Beach (with Gorman) was 16 games under .500 and Peoria was 29 games under.

    #120686
    Avatarbccran
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    On another thread, I listed all of the outfielders and their BA/OBP/OPS slash lines. Let’s do it now for the infielders.

    Nogowski – .295/.403/.879
    Schrock – .275/.364/.745
    Sosa – .291/.317/.783
    Robertson – .231/.346/.711
    Ravelo – .299/.369/.842
    Urias – ..262/.347/.766

    Chinea – .279/.316/.755
    Lopez – .262/.340/.776
    Ascanio – .267/.333/.711
    Montero – .194/.242/.558
    Gonsalez – .261/.316/.721
    Triunfel – .189/.248/.493
    Mendoza – .252/.305/.620

    Baker – .244/.327/.716
    Dunn – .247/.292/.629
    Perri – .227/.269/.553
    Gorman – .248/.326/.765
    Martinez – .237/.309/.621
    Kirtley – .241/.329/.714

    Whelan – .248/.334/.704
    Shaw – .230/.294/.572
    Perez – .269/.329/.654
    Donovan – .268/.380/.789
    Figuera – .213/.277/.538
    Diaz – .317/.346/.773

    Gomez – .262/.344/.760
    Williams – .218/.340/.622
    Castillo – .249/.331/.646
    Ware – .197/.299/.564
    Flores – .167/.242/.497
    Benes – .126/.162/.383

    Lott – .250/.293/.689
    Redmond – .287/.383/.935
    Gil – .262/.317/.736
    Nunez – .229/.305/.623
    Sabino – .282/.387/.845
    Vargas – .238/.333/.608

    DeJesus – .272/.376/.796
    Mendoza – .284/.388/.790
    Soto – .224/.353/.689
    Hernandez – .224/.304/.725
    Rosario – .207/.282/.575

    Here were the leaders in home runs –

    Sosa – 17
    Nogowski – 15
    Gonzalez – 15
    Gorman – 15
    Ravello 12
    Redmond – 12
    Robertson – 11
    Lopez – 11
    Chinea – 10
    Urias – 10
    Baker – 10

    We’re missing power at the corners, except for perhaps Gorman and Gonzalez.

    There were very few stolen bases up and down the system.

    #120717
    Avatargscottar
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    Going forward do we think Juan Yepez is going to be considered an IF or an OF or both?

    #120727
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I can’t speak for others, but until I see where Yepez is playing in spring camp, I don’t have any idea. He became more of a utility guy last season, but is that his direction or a reflection of the other players already on the roster? Don’t know.

    Assuming Baker is the first baseman at Springfield, he and Yepez could flip between there and DH. Between Gorman and Montero, he isn’t going to play at third, so by default, more outfield could be in his future.

    #120732
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    This was the reasoning for the extensions for middle infielders DeJong and Wong. Corner guys Goldschmidt and Carpenter also.

    Sosa is the highest ranked mid-INF at #17, then Gil#25 Urias#26 DPerez#33 and Donovan#39. Not much projection there. 3B is the only INF position with three grade A prospects. And there is the possibility two of them will move off of their 3B position.

    #120735
    Avatarbccran
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    Can Sosa play some outfield?

    #120739
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Except for chasing deep infield popups… Sosa hasn’t stepped foot in the outfield during his pro career. That’s not saying he can’t though.

    #120741
    Avatarbccran
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    Edman had 2 games in the OF in the minors. Just looking for some guys who don’t have sizable holes in their bats, 14.

    #120745
    Avatargscottar
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    I can’t speak for others, but until I see where Yepez is playing in spring camp, I don’t have any idea. He became more of a utility guy last season, but is that his direction or a reflection of the other players already on the roster? Don’t know.

    Assuming Baker is the first baseman at Springfield, he and Yepez could flip between there and DH. Between Gorman and Montero, he isn’t going to play at third, so by default, more outfield could be in his future.

    It seems like Yepez might be headed down the path of JMart and Ravelo, nice bat but where to play him?

    #120750
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I am looking for more consistency at the plate from Yepez before I get very excited.

    #120756
    Avatarbccran
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    At least Yepez showed a little pop – 10 HRs in 275 PAs.

    #120763
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    True, but he spent four straight years stuck between low Class-A and high-A, so I would hope he was able to hit up to the level by year four. Even so, Yepez will play this coming season at age 22, so there is still time.

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    #120808
    Avatarbccran
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    When looking at position prospects in the system (IMHO) – OBP, OPS, number plate appearances per home run, and number of steals are attention getters. If a player is hitting around .230-.240, with an OBP in the low .300s, and an OPS from the low .700s on down it’s not too exciting. At least for that season. Whom do we have in the minors right now from Springfield on down that was exiting in 2019 as far as OBP, power, or speed? Just curious.

    #121104
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    One Final Top 50 List – Dynasty Prospects To Own Now—– Prospects 1500
    From Scott Greene (Red Sox correspondent):

    Darlin Moquete, OF (STL) – not ranked on Chris Eros’s Cardinals Top 50
    Age: 20
    2019 Highest Level: Rookie (Dominican Summer League)
    Fantrax Owned: 1%
    2019 stats I like: .390 AVG (2nd highest in MiLB), 1.030 OPS, 178 wRC+ is excellent, 23 SB, 8.8 K%, down from 16.6 K% in his 2018 season.
    2019 stats I’d like to see improved on to be a dynasty star: Not much to argue about here except two seasons in Rookie ball. Let’s get the 20 year old up to full season A-ball in 2020.
    ***************************************************************************
    Sending Moquete up to the MWL to start the season would probably not be in his best interest. There are several very young OFs in the organization with more pro experience that should show up at Peoria ahead of him. But if Greene was thinking later in the season after some stateside ball under his belt it might not be a stretch.

    #121486
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Connor Jones will be the “comeback prospect” of the organization. This apparently would be the pick of FanGraphs(ranks him #32)-BA (#30)-Prospects1500 (#47). Actually he is still riding the potential card (2nd rd. pick in ’16 #70 overall), and they must be still going with that.

    Its interesting to note that the blogs that are devoted to Cards-only don’t see it that way. The best example of that is right here…. TCN. Jones’ name doesn’t appear anywhere on any list (Brian’s-Derek’s and Community) and the Community went with top-75 prospects.

    One might surmise that the larger blogs aren’t able to follow the Cards plus 29 other teams closely and may be using old reports. Its fairly plain to see that Jones hasn’t put up any numbers in his four year pro-career that would make him qualify to be a valuable prospect. Most that follow the Cards religiously like VEB, Card’s Talk, Birds on the Black have just given up on him completely.

    Now I hope these “experts” that rank him so high up might still be right, but he has fallen so far down on a present-day depth chart that only a miracle would put him back in the spotlight.

    You would have to question the cred of the sites placing him so high up. At 25 years old he can no longer be considered young and based on what he has shown I think we got it right… they got it wrong. Too busy to follow along.

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