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Not enough data yet for me to support Padilla at #10. Hence, Roby, and Hjerpe are all talented and have high expectations. Voting for Hence almost feels like a fool’s errand because of his relentless health concerns No offense on the ‘fool’s errand’ metaphor, Stlcards25. Someone could use the same metaphor for my choosing to vote for Jesus Baez here. Apparently there are scouts, both within the Cardinals’ organization and in MLB in general, that like him. I agree that there are several prospects that could be in this spot.
#10 Jesus Baez
I like Hansen too, but there is a huge gap…no chasm between Hansen and either Henderson or Mautz. Hansen may be fooling so.e precocious overly aggressive youngsters, but that will soon change.
When I consider Jesus Baez coming into the Texas League, I dream on a power hitting SS who crushes 25 bombs. He was the Mets number six prospect at the tome of the trade.
Padilla would have to tear up Palm Beach to match that juice. Which one to bet on here? Since I don’t have a clue and I like Ortiz better, I will of course vote Tink Hence again.#10. Yairo Padilla
I do think Hence, Lin, and Roby, and Deniel Ortiz are good vote receivers at this point as I have them in this range.
Roby
Out of him, Tink and Hjerpe i think he has the best chance to be a #2 or #3 starter at some point.
I also considered Jesus Baez and Deniel at this spot.Roby is expected to miss the entire 2026 season, isn’t that correct? Or has that been amended in some way? (Not trying to be snide here.)
Bob, he’s expected to at least miss most of it. TJ surgery usually implies 12-18 months out – although there have been some instances of as low as around 10 months. In theory, he could be back by July or August. More likely though, he just pitches a few rehab innings towards the end of the season and returns fully healthy for 2027.
It’s a big ding against him. However, he could pitch as a starter in St Louis as a mid-rotation guy by middle of 2027. That’s a lot more upside than most anyone left. Take the good with the bad I guess.
I don’t think Roby is a bad pick, as I have him near this point myself. I also think it’s questionable that he would be ahead of Hence, given the age and results that they’ve both had. It’s ~90% that they both become relievers, IMO, and Hence has much better results in his career. I guess that folks are really hanging their hat on that 5% better chance that he sticks as a starter (I’ve got Hence ~95% to the pen and Roby ~90%).
I am a little shocked by the admiration for the player who once was TK Roby. Verbs have a past tense and a future tense. Roby was a top three prospect arguably. Roby will be rehabbing and then only if that rehab is successful will he begin a throwing program. If there are no set backs, he can begin dreaming of being a starting pitcher again.
You are betting that will happen over recurring shoulder pain or any other setback, and you are voting for that over a guy who isn’t injured and was recently a top rwo prospect.I think this day and age 2 things are common, Tommy John surgeries, and successful surgeries from above. Roby could be another Alex Reyes, but I will hold him at 4th or 5th best prospect until he returns.
I’ll be curious where Brian will have Roby at? He will be starting his top 50 soon, right? Maybe after the World Series.
People think a pitcher with bad arm problems can get healthy and be just like before. That is not how it works. Yes there was Chris Carpenter. Lazarus and Chris Carpenter. There is not going to be Roby too. If he gets healthy enough to stay on the mound, he will be a different pitcher, any good, who knows, we have to wait and see. My position is his arm cannot tolerate what he has to do to be effective. There is years of evidence supporting that, and nothing but fantasies suggesting anything else.
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