2026 TCN Community Top 50 Prospect Voting Thread

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum 2026 TCN Community Top 50 Prospect Voting Thread

Viewing 7 posts - 976 through 982 (of 982 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #313469
    AlbertTheMachine
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The guy looking at them close that I am really moving up and higher than anyone else I have seen is Mason Molina. Last year I think I got overly excited about guys like Mautz and Henderson since they had sparking ERAs, but in hindsight the underlying data wasn’t as exciting.

    Molina looks a lot more likely to me to be able to make that transition to the bigs. He is consistently putting up swinging strike rates of over 15% in his seasons so far which is 2-3% higher than Henderson or Mautz every did at their best of any level. He has improved his first strike % a good amount this year and his walk rate has been an acceptable amount. A pitchers first strike % is a very strong indicator of their future BB%.

    #313470
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    a ball hit the exact same as last year would travel 8-10% further. For guys like Honeyman, that makes me question even his modest 8 HR total more

    I guess it would be interesting to know if HR totals are running ahead of last year in the affected leagues. I assume exit velocities would be higher as well.

    #313471
    AlbertTheMachine
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Exit velocities are the same. For the 8-10% increase in distance, the comparison point was a ball hit with the same angle and exit velocity. But HR totals are up. Linking to BA as they did the research earlier this year.

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/home-runs-are-exploding-across-the-minor-leagues-and-no-one-knows-why/

    #313567
    AlbertTheMachine
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Here is my updated list. I feel good not great about it. I started by just putting players into groups and then trying to arrange within those group. Position players for each tier get the advantage in my book due to more realistic odds of them reaching their upside. The individual number isn’t as important as the tier and within a tier the guys could be shifted around.

    
    +------+------------------------+----------+------+
    | Rank | Player                 | Position | Tier |
    +------+------------------------+----------+------+
    |    1 | Rainiel Rodriguez      | C        |    1 |
    +------+------------------------+----------+------+
    |    2 | Liam Doyle             | LH SP    |    2 |
    |    3 | Quinn Mathews          | LH SP    |    2 |
    +------+------------------------+----------+------+
    |    4 | Joshua Baez            | COF      |    3 |
    |    5 | Yhoiker Fajardo        | RH SP    |    3 |
    |    6 | Mason Molina           | LH SP    |    3 |
    +------+------------------------+----------+------+
    |    7 | Leonardo Bernal        | C        |    4 |
    |    8 | Yairo Padilla          | SS       |    4 |
    |    9 | Trevor Condon          | CF       |    4 |
    |   10 | Jurrangelo Cjintje     | RH SP    |    4 |
    |   11 | Tegan Kuhns            | RH SP    |    4 |
    |   12 | Tanner Franklin        | RH SP    |    4 |
    |   13 | Brandon Clarke         | LH SP    |    4 |
    |   14 | Tekoah Roby            | RH SP    |    4 |
    |   15 | Cooper Hjerpe          | LH SP    |    4 |
    |   16 | Jacob Odle             | RH SP    |    4 |
    +------+------------------------+----------+------+
    |   17 | Won-Bin Cho            | COF      |    5 |
    |   18 | Sebastian Dos Santos   | SS       |    5 |
    |   19 | Rocco Maniscalco       | SS       |    5 |
    |   20 | Tai Peete              | CF       |    5 |
    |   21 | Emmanuel Luna          | CF       |    5 |
    |   22 | Jack Gurevitch         | 1B       |    5 |
    |   23 | Deniel Ortiz           | 3B       |    5 |
    |   24 | Jesus Baez             | SS       |    5 |
    |   25 | Braden Davis           | LH SP    |    5 |
    |   26 | Chen-Wei Lin           | RH SP    |    5 |
    |   27 | Cade Crossland         | LH SP    |    5 |
    |   28 | Brycen Mautz           | LH SP    |    5 |
    |   29 | Ixan Henderson         | LH SP    |    5 |
    +------+------------------------+----------+------+
    |   30 | Andrew Williamson      | CF       |    6 |
    |   31 | Dee Kennedy            | SS       |    6 |
    |   32 | Miguel Hernandez       | SS       |    6 |
    |   33 | Ryan Mitchell          | CF       |    6 |
    |   34 | Luis Gastelum          | RH RP    |    6 |
    |   35 | Xavier Cruz            | RH SP    |    6 |
    |   36 | Blake Aita             | RH SP    |    6 |
    |   37 | Jack Martinez          | RH SP    |    6 |
    +------+------------------------+----------+------+
    |   38 | Caden Ferraro          | 1B       |    7 |
    |   39 | Travis Honeyman        | COF      |    7 |
    |   40 | Jalin Flores           | SS       |    7 |
    |   41 | Sebastian Rojas        | C        |    7 |
    |   42 | Chase Davis            | CF       |    7 |
    |   43 | Ian Petrutz            | COF      |    7 |
    |   44 | Dawson Montesa         | RH SP    |    7 |
    |   45 | Andrew Dutkanych       | RH SP    |    7 |
    |   46 | Cade Winquest          | RH RP    |    7 |
    |   47 | Cal Randall            | RH RP    |    7 |
    |   48 | Hancel Rincon          | RH RP    |    7 |
    |   49 | Max Rajcic             | RH RP    |    7 |
    |   50 | Mason Burns            | RH RP    |    7 |
    |   51 | Austin Love            | RH RP    |    7 |
    +------+------------------------+----------+------+
    

    Rainiel is a tier above every one else for me. The combo of great power and a good hit tool with a chance to stick at C makes him a likely above average regular down the line.

    Tier 2 I see Doyle and Mathews as being big league SP most likely and 3-4 types as a likely outcome but odds of being better than that.

    Tier 3 is where I likely vary. Baez the more I dig in, the more concerned I get as he struggles much more against breaking and offspeed pitches and I fear MLB pitchers will exploit him and he needs to address it otherwise he may be Gorman 2.0. Fajardo and Molina are missing bats at a very high rate and both (particulary Fajardo) have good command.

    Tier 4 on the hitting side has two guys with great bat control that can play up the middle positions in Padilla and Condon. If Padilla were in this draft, based off his hitting tool, athleticism, and projectable frame would be a top 10ish pick. I think people who like a good hitting tool will really grow to like Padilla and Condon. For pitchers, it is a grab bag of guys with the change to be impact SP, but each with some high risk whether staying healthy or developing more consistent offspeed pitches.

    Tier 5 for hitters are guys with every day starter upside, but each player has a pretty major flaw at the moment that needs to be improve. Most of them it is hit tool as they all in this group have good power upside. The pitchers I have Mautz and Henderson much lower than other people, but the data just shows they don’t miss bats that much and I think both can contribute at the MLB level, but more as #4/#5 type upside with likely pen futures.

    Tier 6 I have some of the college draftees as I just don’t know as much and would rank them simlarly to Hernandez (has good upside) and Mitchell as all these guys seem to need to prove themselves going forard. The pitchers are some guys I like some of the traits they have and could see them being back end bullpen types.

    Tier 7 are hitters with more chance of being role players rather than being MLB starters. The pitchers are in 2 sub groups with Montesa and Dutkanych having SP upside, but with what I would label extreme risk. The remaining guys are all RP who many of these will likely get a chance to pitch in a big league pen and provide some middle relief value. I actually went to 51 as Love is the bottom of that tier for me, but he does have some stuff to work with to pitch in the bigs as a middle relief guy.

    • This reply was modified 3 days, 3 hours ago by AlbertTheMachine. Reason: Formatting
    #313574
    AlbertTheMachine
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    A comparison of @stlcard25’s and my list

    I had them higher
    – Brandon Clarke: +18
    – Yairo Padilla: +18
    – Emmanuel Luna: +17
    – Jacob Odle: +14
    – Tekoah Roby: +10

    stlcard25 had them higher
    – Brycen Mautz: +12
    – Jesus Baez: +12
    – Chen-Wei Lin: +9
    – Ryan Mitchell: +8
    – Won-Bin Cho: +6

    Players stlCard25 ranked but I didn’t (* means I have them graduated / graduating soon)
    – *Jimmy Crooks (#6)
    – *Blaze Jordan (#20)
    – Ty Van Dyke (#34)
    – Tink Hence (#35)
    – Pete Hansen (#36)
    – Payton Graham (#44)

    Players I ranked stlCard25 didn’t
    – Blake Aita (#36)
    – Jack Martinez (#37)
    – Jalin Flores (#40)
    – Sebastian Rojas (#41)
    – Ian Petrutz (#43)
    – Andrew Dutkanych (#45)
    – Max Rajcic (#49)
    – Austin Love (#51)

    #313818
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I took a shot at my post-draft Top 50. I mostly focus on the four full season affiliates and the top recent draftees.

    1. Rainiel Rodriguez
    2. Quinn Mathews
    3. Joshua Baez
    4. Leo Bernal
    5. Liam Doyle
    6. Jurrangelo Cjntje
    7. Mason Molina
    8. Brycen Mautz
    9. Tanner Franklin
    10. Trevor Condon

    11. Yhoiker Fajardo
    12. Jesus Baez
    13. Won-Bin Cho
    14. Jacob Odle
    15. Ty Van Dyke
    16. Brandon Clarke
    17. Ixan Henderson
    18. Tre Richardson
    19. Jack Gurevitch
    20. Tai Peete

    21. Tegan Kuhns
    22. Sammy Hernandez
    23. Luis Gastelum
    24. Max Rajcic
    25. Hancel Rincon
    26. Cooper Hjerpe
    27. Blaze Jordan
    28. Pete Hansen
    29. Ryan Campos
    30. Rocco Maniscalo

    31. Tink Hence
    32. Tekoah Roby
    33. Blake Aita
    34. Braden Davis
    35. Chen-Wei Lin
    36. Deniel Ortiz
    37. Chase Davis
    38. Travis Honeyman
    39. Dawson MOntesa
    40. Brayden Smith

    41. Ryan Mitchell
    42. Andrew Williamson
    43. Yairo Padilla
    44. Jalin Flores
    45. Jose Suarez
    46. Josh Kross
    47. Caden Ferraro
    48. Cade Crossland
    49. Dee Kennedy
    50. Cal Randall

    HM Jack Martinez
    HM Ryan Weingartner
    HM Yordalin Pena
    HM Nelfy Ynfante
    HM Cade McGee
    HM Brandt Thompson
    HM Michael Dattalo

    #313828
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    “22. Sammy Hernandez”

    I had noticed Sammy perking back up. Was surprised to see that, though.

Viewing 7 posts - 976 through 982 (of 982 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and minor league system for over 25 years