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So the results are in for Clarke and Pushard. Here’s where they finished up:
Clarke-4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 10, 12, 14, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20, 23, 23
So Clarke had an average vote of 13.4, a median of 14 and got equal votes at 10, 14 and 23.
Pushard-29, 29, 31, 32, 35, 36, 40, 40, 40, 40, 41, 50, NR, NR
Pushard had an average vote of 37.9, a median of 40 and got the most votes at 40.
We will be slotting Brandon Clarke in at 14 and Matt Pushard at 40.
Additionally, I’m adding two guys who got votes earlier in the rankings but didn’t get an HM vote in the end, Darlin Saladin and Ian Petrutz. They will go to the back of the list.
Stay tuned…if we make some trades, we will add to the list as December goes on!
2026 TCN Community Top 50 Prospects
1. JJ Wetherholt, IF
2. Liam Doyle, LHP
3. Quinn Mathews, LHP
4. Rainiel Rodriguez, C
5. Joshua Baez, OF
6. Leonardo Bernal, C
7. Jimmy Crooks, C
8. Ixan Henderson, LHP
9. Brycen Mautz, LHP
10. Tekoah Roby, RHP
11. Jesus Baez, IF
12. Tink Hence, RHP
13. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
14. Brandon Clarke, LHP
15. Yairo Padilla, IF
16. Deniel Ortiz, IF
17. Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
18. Ryan Mitchell, OF
19. Braden Davis, LHP
20. Tanner Franklin, RHP
21. Nathan Church, OF
22. Luis Gastelum, RHP
23. Blaze Jordan, IF
24. Andre Granillo RHP
25. Pete Hansen LHP
26. Zach Levenson, OF
27. Chase Davis, OF
28. Jack Gurevitch, IF
29. Bryan Torres, IF/OF
30. Mason Molina, LHP
31. Won-Bin Cho, OF
32. Nate Dohm, RHP
33. Sebastian Dos Santos, IF
34. Leonel Sequera, RHP
35. Andrew Dutkanych, RHP
36. Kenly Hunter, OF
37. Hancel Rincon, RHP
38. Cade Crossland, LHP
39. Ethan Young, RHP
40. Matt Pushard, RHP
41. Travis Honeyman, OF
42. Frank Elissalt, RHP
43. Yaxson Lucena, OF
44. Matt Koperniak, OF
45. Michael Watson, LHP
46 Josh Kross, C/IF
47. Cesar Prieto, IF
48 Brian Holiday, RHP
49. Max Rajcic, RHP
50. Austin Love, RHPBest of the Rest
51. Miguel Hernandez, SS
52. Ty Van Dyke, RHP
53. Mason Burns, RHP
54. Noah Mendlinger, IF
55 Randel Clemente, RHP
56. Royelny Strop, OF
57 Branneli Franco, RHP
58 Payton Graham, RHP
59. Jacob Odle, RHP
60. Miguel Ugueto, OF
61. Matthew Miura, OF
62. Ryan Campos, C
63. Alan Reyes, RHP
64. Keiverson Ramirez, RHP
65. Jon Jon Gazdar, IF
66. Zack Showalter, RHP
67. Jalin Flores, IF
68. Brandt Thompson, RHP
69. Tre Richardson, IF
70. Jonathan Mejia, IF
71. Skylar Hales, RHP
72. Jeremy Rivas, IF
73. Juan Garcia, RHP
74. Yeferson Portolatin, IF
75. Chase Heath, C
76. Hendrick Cana, LHP
77. Darlin Saladin, RHP
78. Ian Petrutz, OFI can’t believe Clarke is ranked 14. It’s his first full year, and he has the tools to be a very good starter. He was ranked 7th by BA for the Red Sox. He struggled moving up a level, which is not unusual for a 22 year old. I don’t believe our farm system is that much better than theirs. I think both teams are top 10 farm teams. And I think we’re on the improve, especially with the next few drafts. We’re likely in the lottery again in 2027.
Looking at the final list and going through guys again, I personally undervalued Rincon, I formally apologize to him, his family and friends.
Same with Hanson, I formally apologize to him, his family and friends.
Clarke is sure a wild card…. Possible, to be in the electric SP mold, found a few videos, but so many questions. If another team finds value, adios.
A) clearly can’t stay healthy
B) can’t seem to hit a bull in the a$$ with a handfull of corn (fellow hillbillies will get that)I can’t believe Clarke is ranked 14. It’s his first full year, and he has the tools to be a very good starter. He was ranked 7th by BA for the Red Sox. He struggled moving up a level, which is not unusual for a 22 year old. I don’t believe our farm system is that much better than theirs. I think both teams are top 10 farm teams. And I think we’re on the improve, especially with the next few drafts. We’re likely in the lottery again in 2027.
It really depends on which source you use whether the systems are similar. Fangraphs, for example, has the Cards as the 2nd most valuable system and the Red Sox at 13th. Most others have the Cards around the top 10, and the Red Sox in a similar range. Looking at them, I would put the Cards a clear step above Boston (with the caveat that the Red Sox recent top prospects have moved up, such as Anthony, Mayer, Abreu, etc.).
On our rankings, I don’t see any issue with Clarke at 14. The arms ahead of him have all generally been successful at least two levels above his level of success and it’s not like they are all ancient (for example, Hence is 8 months older than Clarke) or that Clarke has been super healthy. They all have question marks, but most have also had answers that Clarke hasn’t shown yet too.
stlcard25 – Thanks for all the time and energy you put into this ranking. You handled it beautifully. Thanks again. It was interesting, fun, and it stimulated lots of us to think and learn more about Cardinals’ prospects. Merry Christmas!
I believe Fangraphs is an outlier on rankings. Baseball America had the Red Sox 3rd best pre 2025, the Cards 20th. Mid season rankings show Red Sox 11th, Cards 12th. No doubt the Cards are on the improve, and I believe that will continue. MLB pipeline showed them very close also. If the Cards can trade for some elite bats, maybe that changes. At this time right now, Baez and Wearherholt like the only ones who could be elite.And the Cards could improve more if the injured pitchers r/prospects return successfully, but that is far from certain.
Btw, thank all of you who took time to organize rankings. It does make the boring offseason more exciting.
stl25, and all those who worked on the rankings–thanks much!
jnevel–Sure does seem like those are the five. I’m surprised about Cho, but not the others. And I seem to recall that you predicted Cho some time ago!
I like our top 20.
I appreciate the effort as well st25, great job sir!
For what it’s worth I respect our rankings and Brian and Kyle’s over the “national” ones.We couldn’t have done it without 14NyQuisT manning the weekend shifts too! 👏
It’s a lot of fun to see how folks vote. We may do a little something with this later in the winter as well, in addition to adding whatever prospects we get for Donovan, Contreras and/or Arenado. Stay tuned.
I agree. Very nicely done this year! I appreciate all the attention stlcard25 & 14NyQuisT put into the voting this year!
Thanks 25 and Jnev. We carried 16 regs throughout the selections and those 16 were always punctual and I got the feeling that the guys were really into it this year. It was my pleasure to help out….. I have everyone’s votes from day1 and tallying them up is easy-peasy. stl25 carried most of the load and I thought everything went smoothly every week. Anyhow…. It made the off-season a lot shorter for me. I’m glad for the enthusiasm this year….a lot of great comments and opinions … you guys were great. Happy Holiday Season to All you wonderful fellow fans. Good health and hoping that you will like the Bloom moves…. they’re coming. Be well. 14.
We have some new prospects. If there’s interest, perhaps after Christmas we will vote on any new additions. Thoughts?
Defintely.
osuagec
MLB.com has already installed Fajardo as the Cardinals 9th best prospect.FYI…Clarke was earlier put as the 7th best.
Also Brian posted that Aita was going to be #28th in the Red Sox rankings so we need to slot them in.
I think I would put Fajardo at #10, ahead of the Roby, Hence, Hjerpe trio.
May as well do them as they come aboard.
Also Brian posted that Aita was going to be #28th in the Red Sox rankings so we need to slot them in.
I think I would put Fajardo at #10, ahead of the Roby, Hence, Hjerpe trio.
Until I see these new guys play a bit, I don’t think I can rate them against the others we have already – certainly not accurately. I’ll leave it to the national rankers for now.
It does not seem that there is enough interest to vote on the new prospects, so we will table it. Perhaps we will do a bulk rerank pre-season and mid season 2026, if there is interest then.
FWIW, I have Fajardo at 10th on my personal list, behind Hence but ahead of Lin, Roby, Mautz and Hjerpe. I like the pitchability and there’s possibly more in the tank for him. If adding him to TCN’s list I would rank him 13th, and ahead of Clarke and Hjerpe.
Aita would slot 45th in my personal list, behind Payton Graham and ahead of Branneli Franco. In the TCN rankings I’d put him 46th, just behind Matt Koperniak. Aita reminds me of an Austin Love who could be a middle inning reliever down the road.
I am remiss for not thanking the community members for your efforts in running the voting and the excellent exchange of points of view. Great work, all!
FYI, we will be inserting Fajardo and Aita into our existing list. We rejuggled when Winquest exited and Clarke made it in without an asterisk.
Probably, more additions are still ahead this off-season. At least, I hope so!
Here are my full rankings with my inputs for FV (roughly median outcome but trying to reward upside while not penalizing safe players like Church), 80th percentile (roughly their realistic ceiling), and risk level from my evaluation. This is just my take and is wildly off most likely. I tend to prefer upside much more than risk and my rankings show this. My philosophy is that most prospects are busts including the ones that are considered low risk, so I’m going to take a big shot and go for impact over just a role player. Bench types and low leverage RP are cheap and easy to acquire while acquiring starting players is costly and getting stars is extraordinarily expensive.
I kept players where I originally had them despite great info from Brian and Kyle making me think some of these are wrong (too low on Chase Davis if his D has improved that much) and then inserted the new guys and removed Winquest. I originally had Winquest at 36, but I honestly think he will most likely be returned by the start of the year. Clarke is my #9, Fajardo #13, Pushard #33 and Aita unranked for me (seems like org filler with no upside). I did this list out to 52 to keep the original guys I had in my 50 before new acquisitions.
+------+----------------------+---------+------+--------+-----+------+----------+ | Rank | Player | Position| Age | Level | FV | 80th | Variance | +------+----------------------+---------+------+--------+-----+------+----------+ | 1 | JJ Wetherholt | SS | 22.9 | AAA | 60 | 65 | L | | 2 | Liam Doyle | LH SP | 21.2 | AA | 55 | 65 | M | | 3 | Quinn Mathews | LH SP | 24.8 | AAA | 50 | 60 | M | | 4 | Rainiel Rodriguez | C | 18.6 | A+ | 50 | 60 | H | | 5 | Josh Baez | COF | 22.1 | AA | 45+ | 55 | M | | 6 | Leonardo Bernal | C | 21.5 | AA | 45+ | 55 | M | | 7 | Jimmy Crooks | C | 24.0 | MLB | 45 | 50 | L | | 8 | Yairo Padilla | SS | 18.1 | Rookie | 40+ | 60 | E | | 9 | Brandon Clarke | LH SP | 22.3 | A+ | 40+ | 55 | H | | 10 | Deniel Ortiz | 3B | 20.9 | A+ | 40+ | 50 | M | | 11 | Chen-Wei Lin | RH SP | 23.7 | AA | 40+ | 55 | H | | 12 | Ixan Henderson | LH SP | 23.5 | AA | 40+ | 50 | M | | 13 | Yhoiker Fajardo | RH SP | 18.8 | A | 40+ | 55 | H | | 14 | Tink Hence | RH RP | 23.0 | AA | 40 | 50 | M | | 15 | Tekoah Roby | RH RP | 23.9 | AAA | 40 | 50 | M | | 16 | Cooper Hjerpe | LH RP | 24.4 | AA | 40 | 50 | M | | 17 | Jesus Baez | 3B | 20.4 | A+ | 40 | 50 | H | | 18 | Ryan Mitchell | CF | 18.5 | Rookie | 40 | 55 | E | | 19 | Zach Levenson | COF | 23.2 | AA | 40 | 50 | H | | 20 | Tanner Franklin | RH SP | 21.2 | A+ | 40 | 55 | E | | 21 | Jack Gurevitch | 1B | 21.4 | A | 40 | 50 | H | | 22 | Brycen Mautz | LH SP | 24.0 | AA | 40 | 50 | H | | 23 | Braden Davis | RH SP | 22.3 | A+ | 40 | 50 | M | | 24 | Luis Gastelum | RH RP | 23.8 | AA | 40 | 50 | M | | 25 | Andre Granillo | RH RP | 25.2 | MLB | 40 | 45 | L | | 26 | Nathan Church | CF | 25.1 | MLB | 40 | 45 | L | | 27 | Cade Crossland | LH SP | 21.5 | Rookie | 40 | 50 | H | | 28 | Sebastian Dos Santos | 2B | 17.3 | DSL | 35+ | 50 | E | | 29 | Andrew Dutkanych IV | RH SP | 21.9 | A | 35+ | 50 | E | | 30 | Miguel Hernandez | SS | 17.9 | DSL | 35+ | 50 | E | | 31 | Bryan Torres | CF | 27.0 | AAA | 35+ | 45 | L | | 32 | Nate Dohm | RH SP | 22.6 | A+ | 35+ | 45 | M | | 33 | Matt Pushard | RH RP | 27.7 | AA | 35+ | 45 | L | | 34 | Frank Elissalt | RH SP | 23.4 | A+ | 35+ | 45 | H | | 35 | Blaze Jordan | 1B | 22.6 | AAA | 35+ | 45 | H | | 36 | Royel Strop | CF | 17.2 | DSL | 35+ | 50 | E | | 37 | Matt Koperniak | COF | 27.5 | AAA | 35+ | 45 | M | | 38 | Austin Love | RH RP | 26.5 | AA | 35+ | 45 | M | | 39 | Josh Kross | 1B | 22.5 | A+ | 35+ | 45 | M | | 40 | Mason Molina | LH SP | 22.0 | A+ | 35+ | 45 | H | | 41 | Brian Holiday | RH SP | 22.1 | Rookie | 35+ | 45 | H | | 42 | Jacob Odle | RH RP | 21.7 | A | 35+ | 45 | H | | 43 | Leonel Seguera | RH SP | 20.0 | A | 35+ | 45 | H | | 44 | Ethan Young | RH SP | 21.5 | Rookie | 35+ | 45 | H | | 45 | Tyler Van Dyke | RH SP | 21.9 | A | 35+ | 45 | H | | 46 | Chase Davis | COF | 23.7 | AA | 35+ | 45 | H | | 47 | Jalin Flores | SS | 22.0 | A | 35+ | 45 | H | | 48 | Won-Bin Cho | COF | 21.9 | A+ | 35 | 45 | E | | 49 | Travis Honeyman | CF | 23.8 | A+ | 35 | 45 | E | | 50 | Yaxson Lucena | CF | 18.0 | DSL | 35 | 45 | E | | 51 | Kenly Hunter | CF | 17.1 | DSL | 35 | 45 | E | | 52 | Branneli Franco | LH RP | 18.4 | DSL | 35 | 45 | E | +------+----------------------+---------+------+--------+-----+------+----------+Please feel free to critique as honestly the discussions around some of these prospects does change my mind and there isn’t much baseball to talk in the offseason.
Some notes from my list
– I have all of Roby, Hence, Hjerpe labeled as RP and I think when pitching again that should be there role. Roby and Hjerpe I feel more confident in hindsight of being a closer potential, but in hindsight I may have been over confident if Hence’s fastball isn’t looking so good for him being a closer potential.
– I may be too high on some DSL guys given a lack of info, but the limited info I have read from BA guys like Hernandez and Dos Santos seem like upside tickets.
– Way too low on Chase Davis if he can play a good CF. I feel better about where I have Honeyman though after liking him during the year. Honeyman is a GB machine and if he just plays an okay CF, he is going to need to hit some more line drives and fly balls to be a role player even.
– In hindsight, I may be too high on Padilla and the body projections. I still love the physical projection, glove, speed combo, but for the same reason as Honeyman, I have concerns. Way too many GB but at least with Padilla he may be able to make it work so I would move him back 5 behind Fajardo.
– I didn’t like Jesus Baez a lot going in and I would drop him another 5ish spots at least with comments on his work ethic.
– Koperniak, Cross, Love are likely too high and should be about 10 spots lower for Koperniak and Love with Kross offContext as well that I am copying from an older post of mine. Note I re-did some of my eval process since July and started each player eval fresh again
Here is how I break down each future value. Position players are taken straight from Fangraphs, while pitchers are my own adjustments as the pitching role has been changing and their breakdown isn’t accurate in my opinion.
+------+------------+-------------------------------+ | FV | WAR/Year | Position Player Role | +------+------------+-------------------------------+ | 80 | 7.0+ | MVP candidate | | 70 | 5.0–6.9 | Superstar | | 60 | 3.4–4.9 | All-Star | | 55 | 2.5–3.3 | Above-average regular | | 50 | 1.6–2.4 | Average regular | | 45 | 0.8–1.5 | Low-end regular / Platoon | | 40 | 0.1–0.7 | Bench player | | 35 | ~0.0 | Up/down, injury replacement | | 30 | <0.0 | AAAA / upper minors depth | | 20 | — | Non-prospect | +------+------------+-------------------------------++------+------------+-------------------------------------------+ | FV | WAR/Year | Starting Pitcher Role | +------+------------+-------------------------------------------+ | 80 | 6.0+ | No. 1, true ace | | 70 | 5.0–5.9 | No. 1 starter | | 60 | 3.4–4.9 | No. 2 starter | | 55 | 2.5–3.3 | No. 3 starter, elite closer potential | | 50 | 1.6–2.4 | No. 4 starter, good closer | | 45 | 0.8–1.5 | No. 5 starter, setup reliever, avg closer | | 40 | 0.1–0.7 | Depth starter, middle relief | | 35 | ~0.0 | Up/down, injury replacement | | 30 | <0.0 | Org filler | | 20 | — | Non-prospect | +------+------------+-------------------------------------------+Where would you guys put the new guy Luna?
Granted, zero experience/track record, but based on hype alone, right before Jesus Baez is where I’d rank him on the community list.
Haven’t read up on Carrion as much, BUT it’s -42 wind chill right now so, I will. Probably a top 50 easily?
AtM, I meant to ask you, how did you format your table for this forum to fit? I would post mine if I could bring it from Excel/Sheets and it would be readable. This is the first year that I’ve put my own grades on prospects.
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