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It is interesting that Fangraphs rated the Cardinals as having the #1 farm system. It’s not by a lot. And part of that is St Louis not graduating many prospects lately while adding several via the mid-season trades. It also comes from the excellent play of Wetherholt, Doyle falling to the Cardinals in the draft, and Raniel Rodriguez and Deniel Ortiz coming out of nowhere – especially Rodriguez who had an incredible season at 18 years of age. It also helps that Josh Baez came back from nearly dead. Plus great seasons from Henderson and Mautz.
I agree there have been a lot of big improvements. We are still light on the position player side.
The rest of the top ten is going to be interesting to me. We will see if the voters are ready to start looking at a new group or would rather hang on to the old favorites. Mathews has some questions marks now. He’s not the sure thing he was. Crooks didn’t look too good. Church doesn’t look like a factor. Bernal has been fading in the national ranking. Hence, Roby and Hjerpe didn’t make any progress. Again. But we’ve got some different guys to potentially move above the old guys. The 18 year old catcher will get some love, I’m sure. The Baezes. A handful of AA pitchers perked up. Henderson, Mautz, etc. There are some Blaze groupies now, maybe the Baker groupies migrated. I’m sure I missed quite a few.
Very different methodology by Fangraphs. Assign $ to Future Values and total them up for all prospects.
So, the set $ values for each FV is crucial. For example, between a 50 FV and a 45+ FV, which is razor thin, the $ value of a hitter is $28 MM vs. only $8 MM. That is a huge difference.
Still, I like the formulaic approach. Even if I am not sure about the FV $, they are the same for every organization.
Right behind StL are PIT and MIL.
I am going to be out of the office and away from the computer the next couple of days so I am going to get my vote in a couple of hours early for number 2.
#2 Liam Doyle
Since we have a near unanimous choice, I’ll just close the voting a few mins early.
The 2026 TCN Community #1 prospect is JJ Wetherholt, IF.
Voting is now open for the #2 prospect. Voting will close at Noon CT/1 PM ET on Sunday, October 12th.
I’m going to get my vote in early as well.
#2-Liam Doyle
Liam Doyle has the high upside that we desperately need to get from the system in the next few years if we are ever to become relevant again. The big fastball and slider are what give him that upside, and hopefully we will see him move steadily up in the years ahead. So he’s my pick.
Number 1 was easy. I have thought about number 2 a lot.
Doyle is often rated #2 by professionals. But he has 5 MiLB innings to draw from. I feel like I’m not completely sold on him as number 2 after seeing so little of him.
Then you have Raniel. He’s putting up tremendous numbers. But he doesn’t really have a position right now – at least not one where he’s going to advance quickly. I can’t give a number 2 designation to a guy that may be 4 years out.
Bernal is in this mix too. He does almost everything well. But nothing is outstanding yet. He doesn’t have Wetherholt’s hit tool or Rodriguez’s power or Doyle’s fastball.
I keep coming back to Matthews. The question is whether he can regain his control or not and stay healthy? I really think he can and will. And because I’m confident there, I’m going to rate him number 2 because everything else this guy does I absolutely love.
2. Matthews
Doyle’s had just one good year as a college pitcher, and just one year throwing more than 60 innings. I think he could be Hrabosky Hredux, which is certainly a top 100 type prospect.
But I can’t put him above all of the remaining Redbird prospects. Too much risk of regression, and too volatile a personality — for anything but reliever, that is.
Rainiel Rodriguez at #2, please. National rankers are placing him around #50 right now, and that’s just a little bit light, I think. More like 35-40 overall for me.
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The Cards may have a top 8-10 farm, mayyybe even top 6 or 7, but that’s about as far as I’d go on that front. Too catcher-heavy, and too many arms unlikely to ever throw 160 MLB innings.
Al was really something and in ’75 placed a season in the books that was about as good as a relief pitcher can feature. The Cardinal lefty went 13-3 to go along with 22 saves and an 1.66 ERA in a shade under 100 innings of work. But more importantly, he was a first rate entertainer in “The Big Show” who sold lots of tickets for the brewery. Redbird fans went absolutely crazy when the mad man worked the pitcher’s mound!
Doyle is often rated #2 by professionals. But he has 5 MiLB innings to draw from.
He also doesn’t have a bum shoulder. Doyle #2.
Doyle – The potential is there for him to be top of rotation.
The only other Cardinal pitching prospect so far that still has top of rotation potential is Hence. I’m giving Hence one more year before I have to take him out of my top 10. Matthews was a major disappointment in 2025 after what he did in 2024. If he can’t recover and maintain that extra speed on his fastball, he could get passed by other pitching prospects like Roby, Hjerpe, and even Henderson and Lin, IMO.
Mud – I had Hence just out of my top 10 last year (I think 12 or 13 despite the community voting him so high). This year I have him at 23! I took a sneak peak at Bling’s list and he has Hence at 97 (I may have stretched there). I’m pretty sure Hence is now relief-only and I’m not sure he’ll be able to throw over 50 innings in a season even at that. The risk on him is so extreme that it has to affect his prospect value.
#2 Liam Doyle
Doyle has ace upside and I’m expecting a 2027 ETA on him. Really excited that the Cardinals new FO is targeting guys like Doyle who don’t fit the typical Cardinals mold and instead are focusing on electric fastballs.
Hence past 20 seems overly cautious to me, but I understand your reasoning with RP. Even though I also have moved Hence to RP in my ranking, he is still likely has more value to deliver than many of our other prospects. Hence has the stuff to be a late inning RP and a good one. Limiting him to 50-60 innings a year should help keep him healthy.
Two very good LHP pitchers. Two different resumes. One 6’5″ – 4th rd in’23 – 242 pro I/P. One 6’2 – 1st rd in’25 3.3 pro I/P.
Mathews at #2.
I took a sneak peak at Bling’s list and he has Hence at 97
I didn’t have Hence on my list last year. At this point he and the org are abusing his body to no purpose and I hope he does not struggle through the rest of his like with physical issues because of it.
“Hmmmm Bob Reed moved Rodriguez above Bernal. Interesting.”
Yeah, that was a combination of things, Ny. Leo unfortunately didn’t hit a lick from June 14 until the end of the season (.207 average, .272 slugging) and the passed balls were elevated as well. Add those factors to the mild concerns over his conditioning, and Bernal has slipped back a bit. Probably in the 50-60 range among all prospects — he’s still excellent at gunning runners, among the finest prospects in any organization.
But what Rainiel has done is exceptionally rare for a kid catcher. Two professional seasons, two great years at the plate. The bat has Ivan Herrera potential.
Bernal is an example of getting too excited too soon. There is always a new guy to slide into that role. Rodriguez is a nice one. We’ll have to see where he lands in the list.
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