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(I’ll spring a little Espanol lingo here in tribute to all of our fine posters whom reside south of the border)
Yo selecto Senor Tekoah Clark Roby aqui @ numero nueve por favor. Es El Cardinales are numero uno! Gracias.
“I am with Nigel on this one. Of all the top players being voted for all have either injury history or upside limitations. Hence has the upside but likely a bullpen guy. Both Baseball America and Major League Pipeline have Padilla ranked higher than most are projecting.”
I agree with Sooner here.
#9 Yairo PadillaTwo professional seasons, both successful & healthy. Scouting reports are quite positive. Walk and whiff rate both improved from 2024 to 2025. Just turned 18 in June. A lot to like, Yairo just got overshadowed by the meteoric rise of Rainiel Rodriguez. Definitely a top 150-200 type prospect, and that’s worthy of the #9 slot.
Before this season this is where we were with Padilla
Future Value: 35
Role: Up/down depth/reserve
Risk: ExtremeLess than 150 PAs in the FCL later he’s a top ten prospect? 7 extra base hits later he’s a top 10 prospect?
He literally hit a few singles and took a few walks versus FCL kids who mostly aren’t going anywhere in baseball. I do get that we are not overwhelmed with compelling top prospects, but jeesh.
Bling – While your wording is a tad bit dismissive (as usual!)- I’m kind of with you on this one. I’m not sure Padilla has done anything to make me a believer yet other than have a good build and look ok at the plate and on the field in a league full of other 18 year olds who aren’t truly in true professional ball yet.
I’d put Jesus Baez ahead of Padilla at this point. Overall, he put up pretty decent numbers in high A and hit 14 dingers at sophomore in college age.
I’d say after how bad Helsley faded in NY the Cards undoubtedly won that trade…. He probably cost himself north of $50M.
Tink Hence at 9. Funny thing is I have been buying Padilla cards on ebay. I wouldn’t touch a Hence card, so I’m putting my money on Padilla.
Still I could see Hence break out, and that would resemble Carlos Martinez coming out of the pen as he emerged. That was a huge weapon.
I suspect that the other ss who emerged down in the DSL has a better hit tool than Padilla…he just doesn’t stand six football four.“Before this season this is where we were with Padilla:
Future Value: 35
Role: Up/down depth/reserve
Risk: ExtremeLess than 150 PAs in the FCL later he’s a top ten prospect? 7 extra base hits later he’s a top 10 prospect?
He literally hit a few singles and took a few walks versus FCL kids who mostly aren’t going anywhere in baseball. I do get that we are not overwhelmed with compelling top prospects, but jeesh.”
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I don’t know who the “we” is, in that first sentence. But when Fangraphs ranked Redbird farmhands on July 1st, Padilla was 7th and graded a 45+. Also, Yairo is currently ranked 9th by MLB Pipeline (MLB.com). And I’m pretty sure that Baseball America rates him rather highly as well.
So if there’s a compelling cause NOT to consider Padilla a top 10 Cardinal, the national sources certainly aren’t talking about it.
It seems to me, we went through this a year ago, nearly word-for-word, at this very website, with Rainiel Rodriguez, after he dominated the Dominican Summer League. Some people wanted to argue that rookieball batting performances are utterly meaningless. And that’s simply incorrect, just like 12 months ago.
The level of competition does matter profoundly, of course. Rookieball has less meaning than A-Ball, which has less than High-A, which has less than AA, and so forth. But no level of paid baseball is valueless when trying to project ballplayers.
Nigel, are you big into ball cards? I was literally looking at mine watching this game. I’ve got two Flaherty rookie cards that are the same if you want one.
I don’t think it’s all that fair to compare Padilla to Rodriguez just because they both had successful seasons in the DSL last season. Rodriguez slugged .683 there and walked more than he struck out. As a catcher. Then followed that up with a great season this year with 2 additional promotions beyond the one to start the season.
Padilla slugged a solid .404 in the DSL with only 1 homer and there’s talk he may have to move down the defensive spectrum to 3B. He also struck out more than he walked. In 120 ABs in the FCL he hit 0 home runs and slugged .367 with just a few more strikeouts than walks. If he can stick at SS and develops some power and while doing both, he continues to hit and steal bases, then he’s a great prospect. But that’s a lot of ifs. I think the National media got a little overzealous on him and they are having a hard time backing off. He’s definitely a prospect who deserves to be on our list, but I don’t think he’s in the top 15 right now.
I just realized the season opening Brian and Blake top prospects article I lifted that Padilla scouting assessment from is behind the members pay wall. Sorry about that Brian. I had gone back to check in response to Bob’s question who ‘we’ is. It will be interesting to see how much 7 extra base hits and the influence of some national raters has on Padilla’s placement on this year’s TCN top 50.
I will go ahead and say that my practice for many years, in developing my top 50 list for this exercise, begins by reviewing the TCN article on a player that rolled out with Brian’s season opening top 50, and then I consider what the player did since then, to get a rough draft of where that player might fit into the rankings now. I can say absolutely, there is no way I would move 18 year old Padilla from 38th to top 10 after 7 extra base hits in the FCL, whatever some national raters say.
A little over 4 hours left to go in the voting and it’s a bit of a barn burner! 5 players voted for, 4 players with 3+ votes. I think we could have a straggler or two pop in here, and that could sway the final tally! Remember, voting closes at Noon CT/1 PM ET.
With no more votes trickling in, your #9 prospect in the 2026 TCN Community Top 50 Prospect voting, by a slim margin, is…Brycen Mautz, LHP.
1. JJ Wetherholt, IF
2. Liam Doyle, LHP
3. Quinn Mathews, LHP
4. Rainiel Rodriguez, C
5. Joshua Baez, OF
6. Leonardo Bernal, C
7. Jimmy Crooks, C
8. Ixan Henderson, LHP
9. Brycen Mautz, LHPVoting is now open for the #10 prospect. Voting will close at Noon CT/1 PM ET on Thursday, October 30th.
#10 – Deniel Ortiz – I know Brian & Kyle discussed considering him in their Top 10. .416 OBP, 13HR & 39 stolen bases (though it looks like he has to be more selective as he advances)
I look at both Hence & Roby as relievers now. Hence has gone 5.0 innings or more in roughly 25% of his starts, Roby in roughly 50% of his starts.
Hence has started 68 games in five seasons, Roby has started 67 games in five seasons. I just don’t see either one holding up as a starter.
LACardFan may be right about Roby and Hence. I’m more confident with Roby though because he has at least pitched 6 or 7 innings before. Plus, TJ surgery is sometimes beneficial and it gives his shoulder more time to rest up. But I understand it’s just hope at this point. I’d put his odds at 25% that he’s starting games in St Louis in 2027. With Hence (unless he’s being used as an opener) I see those odds at less than 5%. I’m going to stick with my Roby vote simply because I believe he’s still more valuable than all the others remaining. But I understand why people would vote for up to about 20 different names at this point.
10. Roby
#10. Pete Hansen
He had a good year and I tend to value reliability more than the ever elusive untapped potential. Results matter.
#10 Yairo Padilla
Distinctly above average hitter for two years now, was the 4th-youngest regular in his league in 2025 — and the three younger players all struck out at least twice as often as Padilla. And speaking of strikeouts, Yairo showed marked plate discipline improvement within the season.
Started 10-48 with a dismal 3-to-12 walk-to-whiff ratio. After that, he hit .338 with an excellent 13/8 BB/K tally. That sort of in-season trend is especially encouraging for a player who even won’t turn 19 until next June.
Anyway, just for the record, in my previous post I did not intend to compare Yairo Padilla to Rainiel Rodriguez. Sorry that I left my post open to that interpretation. They are NOT comparable players at this point and have quite different track records as professionals. What I was clumsily attempting to relate was that in some quarters the reactions to their respective rookieball seasons (Rodriguez’ 2024 season and Padilla’s 2025 campaign) were indeed comparable, and, in my opinion, excessively dismissive by a fair bit.
Prospects in rookieball are on average not materially more or less likely to be MLB regulars than at any other level. It’s the evaluating that’s harder.
Got it Bob. That makes sense. I still think Padilla was a bit over-hyped but he’s still clearly a solid prospect who could be really good if everything works out.
Pete Hansen . . . Now there’s a name I didn’t expect to hear for a bit. I don’t agree with that one GScottar. He did put together a solid season. But he’ll likely be 26 before he sees Memphis and he still doesn’t really have more than 1 Major League caliber pitch. I don’t think Hansen will be added to the 40-man. If he’s not, that will be telling.
Pete Hansen . . . Now there’s a name I didn’t expect to hear for a bit. I don’t agree with that one GScottar. He did put together a solid season. But he’ll likely be 26 before he sees Memphis and he still doesn’t really have more than 1 Major League caliber pitch. I don’t think Hansen will be added to the 40-man. If he’s not, that will be telling.
Oh I get that completely. I might be the lone wolf on that that one. The methods that people use to rate a prospect can vary. Like I mentioned I value results as much as talent because only one of them counts on a scoreboard. That is probably an old fashioned way of looking at it though.
Tink Hence at #10 for me. Better stuff, better results and younger than Roby. His injury history is nowhere near as long, either. He’ll be a very good relief arm, with a slight chance he still pans out as a starter.
CardFanInChiTown
Thanks for your generous offer, but I’m trying to rid myself of my of my cards before my kids have to go through them and figure out my mad ess. I fear I only have a few decades left and that may not be enough time.Cardinals prospects have been my focus since any other team would be a total mystery.
You could always use them as some sort of intimidating tarot card against some Cub fan who done you wrong.
Thanks again for the kindness.
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