2024 Rotation

Alcantara won the Cy, signed a 5/55 contract which bought out two arb years, then turned in a good but not eye popping season which ended a bit early due to UCL trouble. He tried rest, and a rehab stint which produced contining forearm pain so he shut down earlier this month. Now they decide what the path forward is, surgery or try rest and rehab again. Mo will be watching, and Bill. The Fish spent the money but might not have a starter to show for it. Now they may well need a plan B for that rotation slot in 2024. What does their laundry list look like? Mo and Bill seeing their life flashing by before their eyes.

No, not that gscottar. I think the Cards org believes the team absolutely must be competative next year, and no ifs, and or buts, will work if they are not. The Marlin’s/Alcantara was given as an example of the proposition that even if we add 3 good starters, it doesn’t mean we will have three good starters. It means we will have anywhere from 3 to none. So that example illustrates the reality that adding the 3 that we need is not enough. Not if we must contend and not if what is behind them is inadequate to carry us through whatever attrition we encounter.

My sense of things is that the Cardinals will take on a pitcher contract that exceeds Leake’s 5/80, but will not take on two such contracts. In my mind that sets the upper limit as to the quality we can expect at the top end of the pitching staff rebuild. I really don’t have any idea what to expect beyond that as to quality and quantity. Do we get three guys better than Mikolas? Two, or just one? There is depth to be acquired and then there is the pen, which is horrible all up and down. We have gotten used to ninth inning guys who routinely turn it into a cluster and then wiggle out of it half the time or therabouts. If they wiggle out a bit more than that for a spell we think we’re rolling in it. But you don’t win like that. We need an actual closer who can regulrly limit ninth inning traffic. We need a couple guys behind that who can be counted on to come in and not walk guys, hit guys, throw it to the screen or over the first baseman’s head. We need it all this winter, and just because you spend some money to plug a hole doesn’t mean its plugged. That is what life with a shitty roster and no help in the system is like.

It seems real possible there will be no homegrowns in the rotation next year, depending upon whether Matz is in or out. Given his contract, I think he will be in. That is really a drastic turn of events from past years.

The pen seems likely to have little homegrown influence either. As to true relievers, Helsley seems likely to still be here, but that could be it. Besides that, a couple laundry list starter wannabes, probably Liberatore and Thompson if they survive the winter, might be in the pen. Or one in the pen and one stretched out at Memphis. That’s about it as far as the system’s contribution to the ML pitching staff. Attrition will happen, but Mo already has brought it some outside guys along those lines, and probably more will arrive this winter. Its a total disgrace and failure. I know some cling to the notion the system isn’t as bad as all that, but at least on the pitching side it is. I know we are hopeful about some pitchers further away, and I hope so, but we must remember that they are coming up in the same system, so a different result would be unexpected.

It will be real interesting to see what happens in the organization this winter.

As of now, the only thing we know about the 2024 rotation is that Mikolas will be in it, so lets think about that for a minute.

Miles got extended through 2025, and thanks, I believe, to a front loaded structure he gets $16M per for 24 and 25. I note that his last appearance in 2022 was 3 innings and 1 ER in relief (getting him over 200 IP) at the end of the season, so I exclude that.

2022: 31 starts, 199 IP, 6.4 innings per start. 3.29 ERA, 7.6 H/9, 1.033 WHIP. SO% 19%, BAA .226
2023: 35 starts, 201 IP, 5.75 innings per start. 4.78 ERA, 10.1 H/9, 1.316 WHIP. SO% 15.9%, BAA .282

I did compare Montgomery’s stats from the two years, even though he switched teams at the deadline both years. Some went up and some down, but no slide at all.

So Miles had a down year. Blame whoever and whatever you want, but it didn’t affect Montgomery. We can hope he has a better age 35 season than his age 34 season was. There will be some hoping for that. To get to the point, he got hit around, and likely due to that, he didn’t go as deep into games. But he led the league in answering the bell, which on our 2023 team qualifies him for a smiley face sticker on his locker. I don’t know what his avg fastball speed was or anything, I’m just looking at results.

He is probably not going to be the #5, more likely #3 or 4. His 2023 numbers would make him a good reliable innings eater toward the bottom of the rotation. But I hope we have 3 better guys. I hope we have 4 better guys. We also need to accept that he is at an age where a starter can flame out pretty quick, so we could be looking at that for two years. Hopefully not.

Mikolas is what he is. A 10-12 win guy with an ERA of 4.5 to 5.5 with lots of traffic on the base paths.

If he’s counted on to be higher than the #4 or #5 guy in the rotation next year then it’s going to be a problem.

If the two pitchers aren’t worth their salaries to remain Cardinals, why would they be a value to another team? The cost of a win is the cost of a win…

You could probably get Bauer for a small base salary and some major incentives for innings pitched.

From what I’ve read poor guy got absolutely jobbed during a time when our country and general society lost their collective minds for about 3-4 years.

I hope he is able to resume his career and, if what I’ve read is even remotely true, then I also hope he is able to recover the millions he lost plus punitive relief from the news outlets and any false accuser through our court system.

The Dodgers paid Bauer $26M not to play in 2023. Unless they just like printing money for the fun of it they must have had a reason.

Gray will be 34 next month and will probably want 4-5 years. He could be great next year, but whoever signs him will get some downhill, just a question of how much.