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Not to go full moneyball but even I concede that a pitcher’s w-l record is not near as relevant as yesteryear. Back in the day it was quite common for a good starter to give you 7 or 8 innings each time out. Nowadays if a starter gives you 6 innings it is time for a ticker tape parade. Obvioulsy the fewer innings he pitches the less chance he will be involved in the decision. I prefer to focus on ERA, WHIP, and Avg. Against.
It is really hard to tell which of a variety of factors are most important. They all matter.
Very true. Monty turned in 8 quality starts out of 11 tries for the Rangers, but they only went 4-7.
That “variety of factors” that all matter, is the rosters “roles”, for me. And, I’m looking to dig at BW’s labeling, somehow 🙂
Aren’t we dealing with the SP, bullpen, lineup and D roles, during the game? Is there another factor / role that needs included?
BTW, these are good roster discussions on a team level. I am really enjoying the forums input, while we wait for another game.
My response followed a discussion in which quality starts was being touted, which of course has nothing to do with offensive support and also excludes unearned runs (bad defense). One can often find some substat (variety of factors) to reinforce a point of view. Not right or wrong, just different things to consider.
MLB 2023 was 4.56 RS/RA, actual outcomes. No shoulda, woulda, coulda; a perfect over/under of 4.5 runs.
Monty, 8/4 vs Marlins: TEX 6, MIA 3
(Tex perspective)lineup/D: +1.5 RS (over 4.5 mlb avg RS) no unearned runs to subtract by D.
SP: +1.5 (game ERA of 3.00 for his IP, under mlb avg of 4.5 RS/G during 6 IP) credit: +1.5 RA.
bullpen: +1.5 (game ERA of 0.00 over 3 IP, under mlb avg 1.5 RS for 3 IP) credit 1.5 RA
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It looks like a team win, with equal support from each role. Do you agree?Brian:
My response followed a discussion in which quality starts was being touted, which of course has nothing to do with offensive support and also excludes unearned runs (bad defense). One can often find some substat (variety of factors) to reinforce a point of view. Not right or wrong, just different things to consider.gscott:
I prefer to focus on ERA, WHIP, and Avg. Against.The top comment suggests that the second comment is more accurate as an indicator. I use gscott’s stats as well as GameScore and K/IP to evaluate performance and effectiveness. I have every GS for the last five seasons including the affiliates. For MiLB games I modify the formula slightly (i.e. a subtraction for HRs allowed.) Also I use a line graph to show improvement and consistency.
14Ny, the top comment is about overall team performance (in wins and losses), the second comment is about individual performance while the SP is in the game, or his overall season.
The discussion has been about how on earth is an actual team W/L of 7-14 (STL), or 4-7 (TEX), with a top tier FA SP’r like Monty even possible, across two teams.
I doubt we find the answer in Monty’s individual stats, only.
I used ERA in the RS/RA game example above, adjusting for IP, and it showed equal value for all roles. I disagree it was even close to equal value across the roles.
A SP’r QS, and a lineup game of 6 RS. Wrap it up right? Not so fast, I think the pen and lineup won the game, with the SP role having limited positive value.
The 6 IP, 2 ER QS was smoke and mirrors after Monty put two on to start the 7th, exiting ahead 4-2, but with none out.
Next pitcher went 3up and 3down. Rally shut down.
TEX lineup continues to score and there is no save available in the 9th. 6-2 win.
game WPA:
Lineup/D: +0.216
SP: +0.016
bullpen: +0.267Games like this one are where the pen has a make or break outcome for the SP’rs QS, during a games higher leverage situations.
Monty tried to give away his two run lead, and undo all the good he had done for 6IP.
When the game is over, the QS and RS look real good on the surface, and the 3 shutdown pen innings get washed away as inconsequential. The 7th is “when it mattered”.
A little out of the box and while he may not be able to pitch in 2024 Brandon Woodruff might be a good gamble on an incentive laden 2 year deal(a healthy Woodruff and Gray would be a pretty good starting duo for 2025)…pending a look at his medicals
I think so too greyghost. I wonder if he could be signed for 2 yr/20M? Pay him 4M in 2024 and 16M in 2025.
I think that 2year $20 Mill contract would be reasonable. It would be a gamble maybe a little similar with what they did with Chris Carpenter…though I think Carpenter was an elbow where Woodruff might be a shoulder.
Carpenter endured surgery to both his shoulder and elbow prior to becoming a Cardinal. He was signed for $300K. He turned out pretty good…
I’ll also say this a about Chris Carpenter…Despite playing on teams which featured future HOF’ers Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and plenty of other talent in the form of names like Edmonds, Holliday etc. in my view Chris Carpenter was not only the clubhouse leader of the players on those great teams, but also the guy that lit a fire under the backside of his fellow teammates on the field when he felt they were’nt playing up to speed. I’ll never have any problem whatsoever mentioning Chris Carpenter in the same conversation as Bob Gibson.
I’ll never have any problem whatsoever mentioning Chris Carpenter in the same conversation as Bob Gibson.
Unfortunately, it’s about numbers. If its not on a spreadsheet, it doesn’t exist.
Interesting view. The new rotation isn’t expected to throw more innings than the old rotation. And how much better the results may be remains a major question.
All this talk about the #STLCards grabbing inning eaters this offseason and my projections have them throwing almost identical amounts of innings from the starters as last year.
— Ben Cerutti (@stlfanbc7) December 27, 2023
The Cardinals starting pitchers, as bad as they were last year, threw ~850 innings.
League average was closer to 830.#STLCards were already above average in number of innings from their starting pitching.
— Ben Cerutti (@stlfanbc7) January 3, 2024
So the 5 we have lined up will throw the same IP as the 10 last season?
If openers are starters too, we should be above mlb avg, on the IP total.
I’m sure that guy is convinced. The reality is the Cards had 48 Quality starts. Only six teams had fewer, and three of them were the Rox, Royals and As.
It looks to be a team estimate, not an individual one. It would be unreasonably optimistic to think all five could make every start. The backfill is roughly the same guys minus Woodford.
Primary starters threw 623 as a Cardinal (2 were traded)….Mikolas skews the # some b/c he was 4th in the majors for innings pitched
Wainwright….101
Mikolas………..201.1
Matz………………….90 (excluded his bullpen innings)
Montgomery..121
Flaherty…….109.2The rest came from a wide cast: like Hudson, Woodford, Thompson Liberatore , Woodforde, Rom
Matz, Thompson, Liberatore, Woodford and Hudson all had bullpen innings as well
Oliver, I think the point is that usual definitions of “good” do not seem to correlate reliably with team success. That being the case, team success is not going to depend upon how they stack up against those defenition of ‘good’.
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