- This topic has 851 replies, 46 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I don’t think the Cardinals can give up their top starting pitching prospect (Hence) under any circumstances with the cost of starting pitching nowadays in MLB and the cardinals budget
If they switched out Herrera for Hence and Scott for Roby, I would be much more interested and those are the same value-wise. I hate giving up our elite minor league pitching talent and I’d argue they could use the positional help more than lottery ticket pitchers like Roby/Hence.
Also, it would be nice to get Santos, the relief pitcher, back to shore up our bullpen a bit.
I don’t believe for a moment that we will see a rookie in the rotation while we have HOFers at the end of their careers. I would trade young pitching for top of the rotation arms right now.
Giolito signed for about the same money Mikolas is making, and its not a long term contract. If its just about money, the Cardinals could have been in on him. But then, Mo would have had to either move Matz and his contract out, or be stuck with a starter making $12.5 working out of the pen, at least until somebody goes on the IL. My very strong gut feeling is that Mo is done signing FA starters. Its not the greatest rotation ever, but it could be competitive if people stay off the IL. And its cheap by current standards. Three 12.5s, an 18.5 and Gray, who is cheap in 2024 before ramping up. None of it is long term, so there is payroll flexibility looking ahead. This makes deadline deals feasible, as we could take on some contract. That is important, as it seems to be BillMo’s modus operandi.
I think Mo would be actively talking to counterparts seeing if deals can be done aimed at enhancing our pen at the expense of some midling prospects, which we now have more of, and who knows, something might come up that lands us a starter. But I think Mo is OK with the rotation as it is. A concern for me is that, besides the five, I am not real excited about any of the starters in the system, who would be rotation depth in 2024. At least no one has shown both an ability to dominate at the highest level he has reached, and an ability to stay off the IL.
Yeah if the Cardinals acquire another starter it will probably be via trade. The Mariners beat writer, Ryan Divish, said on MLB Network a couple of days ago that Mariners might be looking to move Luis Castillo because they need to purge more salary due to their regional tv network issues.
Castillo is still a high end pitcher as he finished 5th in the Cy Young voting in 2023. He is owed approximately $100M over the next four years which isn’t cheap but should make the asking price less painful than a deal for Cease. It might be something for Mo to consider although there wouldn’t be room for bullpen reinforcements unless Matz was traded to someone else.
Matz to SEA, as a trade down by SEA to shed Castillo’s salary, costs us what else?
Including Matz reclaims 11mil.
I was impressed by Matz during that stretch when he was healthy. It would be better to have somebody more reliable, but if he’s healthy he could be our second best after Gray. But if we go with him in the rotation, we will end up with one of the laundry list guys from last year before long. I was hoping Mo was done with the IL guys.
With those half season guys, I start viewing their salary as double it’s amount. O’Neill fell in that class.
Bullish on Matz, but Castillo would be a major upgrade, and another long term rotation member in place.
Bling:
I was impressed by Matz during that stretch when he was healthy. It would be better to have somebody more reliable, but if he’s healthy he could be our second best after Gray.
I’m sure that those guys upstairs remember that. He just needs to remain healthy.
but if he’s healthy
Those are four (or five) of the most dangerous words in baseball. I really really dislike relying on players with extensive injury histories.
Its not the greatest rotation ever, but it could be competitive if people stay off the IL
I’m a bit surprised you would say that. Here are Baseball Reference’s 2024 projections, w//l and IP, for 9 Cards:
Lynn 11-9, 164, Gray 8-8 164, Gibson 11-9, 172, Mikolas 9-11, 180, Matz, 108, Hudson 7-5, 108, Pallante 4-3, 72, Thompson 4-5, 70, Libatore 45, 79.We have a bunch of .500 pitchers. If one goes down, we stick in a similar replacement. It is true that a couple might surprise to the upside, by a little. So if we get the same offense and relief pitching as last year, we play .500 ball. That is an improvement, but still a disappointment.
We MUST improve the pen to play better than .500, in my view
What exactly would you propose BrockLou? Baseball Reference projects Jordan Montgomery at 9-9, so by your way of thinking acquiring him would not help at all.
They project Blake Snell 11-9, the same as Kyle Gibson, who cost a fraction as much, so Mo really got a super good deal on that one. Or, it is all computer generated twaddle, the same as Mo will be sending down to the dugout for Descalso to hand to Ollie.
Or, it is all computer generated twaddle,
Of course it is computer generated twaddle. These 9 guys, in recent years, have won about half of their decisions and lost the other half. How do you propose we change that?
Better offense support? Not in the cards, pun intended.
Better fielding? Our rising star is Jordan Walker, and our most expensive FA signing recently was for the catcher that Marmol said couldn’t catch.What is left besides getting better relief pitchers? Or utilizing them more effectively?
Didn’t the club lose 10 consecutive Montgomery starts last season? And the same decision makers still have jobs, last I looked
Didn’t the club lose 10 consecutive Montgomery starts last season?
Yes we did.
Montgomery is recognized as one of the better starters in the game, and we went 7-14 in games he started.
Wainwright had one of the worst, or the worst, season of any starter in recent memory, yet we also went 7-14 in games he started. Having one of the best starters instead of one of the worst did not matter in terms of wins and losses, which is all that matters.
I see your point, but look at it this way. Kyle Gibson went 15-9 for the O’s last year. But that O’s team outscored us by 88 runs and their bullpen was far better, as least based on ERA.
You put Gibson on a lower scoring team, with a weaker pen, and he won’t win all that many games. And that doesn’t even take into account fielding.
I know that w/L can be deceptive, more so than other stats, but not in aggregate. The O’s won 30 more games than we did, despite the fact that their starters’ era wasn’t all that much better, especially if you discount Waino, which was a special case, chasing win # 200.
It’s a good point on Gibson w/the O’s.
BAL relief: 44/21 W/L (+23)
STL relief: 28/27 W/L (+1)BAL turned a QS% of 52% into a 61% team Win%.
IMO, Kyle Gibson won 15 games because he turned in 17 quality starts. When you do that, your pen doesn’t have to be as good or as deep and neither does your offense. Your starter is reliably going deep and exiting with the team having a chance to win. If you do that all seaon long it doesn’t make too much difference if your name is Blake Snell or Kyle Gibson. It makes some difference, but not as much as people think.
I am guessing Gibson also had better run support. For example, as noted already, Monty’s run support was not good and he lost a lot of games despite being a superior pitcher. He often left without a good chance to win. It is really hard to tell which of a variety of factors are most important. They all matter.
A QS is 6 innings of 4.50 ERA pitching. MLB teams averaged 4.62 R/G (2023).
A 9 inning shutout is a QS too, but ahead 3-2 after 6, is a more likely hoped for game context (if you will).
The lineup and D still have to keep plugging along for another 3 innings, but preserving the lead you hope to have, after 6 IP of a QS, is TBD.
Holds and saves per inning, preserve leads, and are characteristics of a +23 wins bullpen. Maybe it’s, “a strong pen is a starters best friend”, too.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.