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There are some 1 year prove it options still available….Paxton, Ryu, Cleveinger, lorenzen kluber, urias
Problem is cardinals ownership seems tapped out and they still need 1 relief pitcher at a minimum with a pulse, who they probably can’t get because they are broke apparently
I am surprised anyone has been holding out hope of them adding another starter. All the signs have been pretty clear for weeks now.
I don’t agree with it, either, but that’s the way it is…
What surprises me is people persistently forget that signing a free agent is not the only way to acquire some help. I think the rotation might be complete, but not the pen or the bench.
I am not sure that we have to strictly limit it to salary neutral. Nothing I have heard would rule out taking on a modest bump. Say, an arb guy making a few million coming and a couple prospects going. I don’t think we could rule out a guy due $8-$10 Million even. What was and is never going to happen is 5-95 or 4-44 for a reliever, and I have no quarrel with that.
Yah, that carrot gets dangled about this time of year. Sometimes an Arenado shows up, but more often than not it’s fringe shuffling.
The reason this is still talked about is becasue I thought Mo made a comment at WWU saying he “couldn’t completely rule out another rotation acquisition” or something to that effect. Obviously that might be just “Mo speak” to save face and tell fans what they want to hear. Yes it is clear that any major acquisition before Spring Training is probably in the 10% likliehood but that isn’t zero and we really don’t have anything else to talk about for the next few weeks.
International signings and the HOF ballot can only generate so much interest.
Many years ago Shannon was talking about hot stove season and said sometimes there is nothing left but to run a hornet’s nest up the flagpole and see who thinks its a piñata.
At least in the Mo media session I posted, he did not specifically say “rotation”. I suspect some may have heard what they want to hear. Of course, he was clear not to rule out anything.
Or perhaps it was said in a different forum.
Most seem to believe that if anything happens, it would be a reliever.
Mo was on KMOX this morning. Here is what he said about pitching.
Starters – Excited about the arms we have.
Relievers – Always looking. Monitoring free agency.Of course, this doesn’t mean there is a zero percent chance of getting another starter, but they sure are misdirecting if that is their real intention.
Perhaps I was thinking of this quote from Mo in a P-D article a week or so ago. Again I am not expecting them to do anything but there isn’t much else Cardinals news to discuss on a cold winter day.
• “It could be anything,” Mozeliak said when asked if remaining moves would be bullpen focused over rotation focused. “Not closing the door to anything at this point.”
I have been trying to come up with a scenario where we get a starter to slot in after Gray that does not involve trading off Matz and his contract. Not really any luck with that. Mikolas is a reliable mid rotation innings eater who underperformed last year. I think that is more like what Mo is after than something he would move. I don’t see Lynn or Gibson having any value, given their contracts. Mo is not going to trade any of the starting 9, and there is nothing else of substantial enough value to headline a trade for the kind of quality we want.
So then, in my mind, it comes down to what might a trade involving Matz look like? I am having trouble there as well. We don’t have any depth behind the 9 and our upper system is full of dubious hopefuls.
Roby and Hence have too much health risk until they show some resilience on the mound. I think maybe Scott and Hjerpe would be our best chips. I can’t see how something would come together, but I think it would begin by considering which teams would like/need what we have to offer. What we have is an injury prone pitcher who might max out as an OKish mid rotation guy, if he can stay healthy and if you squint. Add to that a speedy, good glove CF prospect who looked good in the Texas League and a highly hyped pitcher with 40 innings in A level ball. So, what do we do with that?
bling, why is Hjerpe any different than Roby or Hence as far as health risk?
Good grief, I got them switched. Good catch forsch and thanks. Hjerpe and Roby need to demonstrate resilience, and Hence has already done so.
So anyway, the proposition I was trying to run up the flagpole is that I can’t see any way we end up with a starter to slot in beside Gray other than as a result of a trade involving Matz and his contract going out.
Further, I am having no luck coming up with a realistic example of how such a trade would look. Mainly it is a problem of limited trade goods, as we have little to nothing that has proven able to dominate AAA opposition.So whatever we can offer has proximity risk and some have significant health risk which is recent enough that the outcome is up in the air for the present. None of those further away are in the upper part of the MLB top prospects list and are not going to feature in a trade for an MLB proven upper end of rotation quality arm.
So that leaves us no choice but to come back to possibly trading from the ML roster. Obviously, we would be taking about the position player side. Mo passed on the idea of trading the bronze busts,whose value would be down anyway after last year, and whose real value would be as a deadline trade to a contender. So we would be looking at the youngsters.
The first problem with that is Mo would see tham as future Arozarenas, Garcias and Lanes. The second problem is we are paper thin talent wise. A trade opens a hole somewhere that we cannot fill.
Given all that, the conclusion I reach is that it isn’t happening. But that doesn’t mean something else couldn’t happen. I’m think a swing man type who would slot in as a buffer between the 5 man rotation and Thompson/Liberatore. I think Mo would prefer that last years failed starters not be first up as soom as one of the 5 can’t answer the bell. That sort of acquisition seems much more doable.
Having an 11mil AAV at SP5 just shows how broken the “develop from within” is.
Now is the time to trade off Matzs’ salary, while other clubs are buying, and haven’t maxed their budget.
I’m fine with Thompson as the SP5, and I bet you know where I’d spend Matz salary.
My expected value of the two next season, is not worth a 10mil difference.
I don’t really agree with trading Matz. At least not like this. To me, he’s likely our 2nd best pitcher on a rate base. Sure, he’s only likely to throw 90-120 innings, but that’s a good cushion of time to see how others do in AAA. I’d rather trade Lynn if we could, but that’s not happening since we just signed him. And therefore, I think the starting rotation is what it is and there will be no change unless someone gets seriously injured.
With the Carpenter signing, I don’t see another bat getting signed other than a minor league depth SS. So it’s down to just the bullpen. It doesn’t need to be addressed. But it definitely would be nice to have 1 more proven arm out there. It’s just that the couple of guys who we’d like to get probably are holding out for a 4-year deal and the Cardinals and others don’t want to give that or to way over pay on a 3-year deal. I think this is why Mo just keeps saying they are watching the market. But we are waiting in line with 10 other teams until the asking price becomes reasonable. I mean I’d love to get a guy like Hector Neris. But I’m not sure I want to commit to a 34-year old reliever for 4 years at whatever the highest market price is right now. He’d be 39 at the end of that deal. My guess is we’d be paying more for his past performance than his future performance.
First, they would first need to find a taker for Matz and (at least most of) his salary. Also, they would have to acquire a better starter via trade or free agency to replace him who probably makes less than Matz today. (Because for the total expenditure for the Cards, you have to add the cost of however much of Matz’ salary they have to give to his new team to whatever the new guy makes and/or the players given up in trade.)
Can’t do one move without the other. I don’t believe they are satisfied with any of the in-house pitchers (Thompson, Liberatore, Rom, etc.) other than for depth or they wouldn’t have signed three new starters in the first place. If their plan all along was to trade Matz, why would they wait until now to consider it? It doesn’t compute.
It is January 22 and the team is saying they are happy with their rotation as is. So, being realistic, what are the odds that both of these steps will happen between now and when camp opens? If I was being optimistic, I would give it about 2%.
For me, Matz is an ok number five and offers less risk than the young returnees. He is better than a lot of number fives in the game.
Matz flashed a little at the end of the season last year.
Was it fool’s gold or could that have been the beginning of a really nice run for him?
Ah, but that is the $64,000 question isn’t it?
As far as the starting rotation is concerned I think the die is cast for 2024 barring a system prospect blowing up and / or a deadline trade this summer.
I do want to make clear I wasn’t clammoring to trade off Matz. I agree that if he’s healthy he is probably second best, or certainly 3rd. But Mo has offed a number of health risks, so there is the chance he would like to move Matz for that reason.
I am not completely comfortable with this statement:
If their plan all along was to trade Matz, why would they wait until now to consider it?
Just because it hasn’t happened doesn’t mean they haven’t considered it or been looking for a way. It would not be shocking if they couldn’t find a taker.
It seems like a buffer between the 5 starters and the laundry list guys would be wanted and seems like it could be doable.
Generally speaking, when teams make it known to the other 29 teams that they have a player on the block, word leaks out. This is not 100%, but consider that not a word by the media has been mentioned about Matz while guys like Cease get hundreds of articles written about them. When the Cards wanted to move O’Neill, they signaled it and got it done relatively quickly.
Sometimes, agents want to get the word out so their guy can find a new home and get on with his career. No one wants to be in limbo for weeks on end. Other times, if the guy wants to say, maybe nothing would be said.
Just like everything else we speculate about here, it cannot be 100% proven/disproven until it happens or not. But I will always go with the highest odds scenario while others can hold out for highly unlikely possibilities.
P.S. If Matz isn’t tradeable, then why are we talking about it?
Mo says he is always looking, because that is his job. But again, what are the chances a better starter than Matz drops into his lap that costs little to no more in incremental payroll? With an aged rotation, he would be crucified (and rightfully so), if he traded away his youngest starter without a better replacement lined up. And even with a sixth proven starter, that would not be too much depth given the advanced ages of the top five.
In other words, there is no reason to trade Matz with a number of reasons to hold onto him.
I’m bullish on both Matz and Thompson next season, equally, so any players recieved in trade, and/or salary relief I would welcome by trading Matz.
SP5 doesn’t have be better than Matz, for me, just equal to, for 100 IP.
Playing at 26 next season, Thompson should be taking on this role. His five seasons of club control nominates him as the better investment of GS, during our disguised rebuild.
The only way to trade for a pitcher equal to Gray (Dylan Cease) would be to include players like Gorman, Donovan, Edman, Herrera, Hence, Graceffo, etc… Not all of them but some of them for sure. The White Sox would have no interest in Matz. Cease is scheduled to make around $8M this year which I think the Cardinals could easily afford even though they claim they are tapped out.
Realistically if they spend another dime this offseason it will be for a middle reliever.
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