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Saw this in an article:
“The 2024 #STLCards rotation will now be anchored by the 2023 leaders in runs allowed (Miles Mikolas), hits allowed (Kyle Gibson), and home runs allowed (Lance Lynn). That’s incredible.”
Unless they go big for Yamamoto I would pivot away from the free agents and look at trades. Sonny Gray is a nice pitcher but will cost us a draft pick. Blake Snell will cost us a draft pick, want a huge contract, and will inevitably get hurt. He is the trifecta of bad news.
I would try to pull off a trade for one of:
1. Dylan Cease
2. Shane Bieber
3. Tyler GlasnowThat would be my order of preference.
Cease would be my favorite. He has two years remaining and is reasonably durable.
Bieber is a quality pitcher but only has one year left and had some injuries last year.
Glasnow has great stuff but only one year left and is a huge injury risk.I’ve been leaning that way too. A Cease type is necessary, but I also like Mitch Keller and Bryce Miller as targets
Re ZTR’s comment, those guys are all in the top 20 or so in IPs, so counting stats will be up there anyway. And they aren’t top shelf which ads a meaningful layer.
Mo moved from unreliable guys like Hudson and Flaherty to reliable guys Lynn and Gibson. Theoretically, he still needs to replace Montgomery.
Mo moved from unreliable guys like Hudson and Flaherty to reliable guys Lynn and Gibson.
And to give Mo credit there is value in guys who answer the bell every fifth day. The problem is that you can’t have an entire rotation of average innings eaters if you want to be a true contender. It isnow time to address the top of the roation.
There is value in answering the bell every fifth day. Both additions are 36 and Mikolas is 35. With the amount of traffic all three get isn’t there a concern of older pitchers breaking down? Lynn gave up 44 homers last year…isn’t that concerning? I don’t like the Lynn signing at all. Gibson is ok I guess.
I suppose any pitcher is capable of breaking down but Lynn, Mikolas, and Gibson have a decent track record of being durable. Yes the amount of traffic, HR’s allowed, and lack of K’s are all a concern. We will need to hope that we give up a lot of solo HR’s and that our defense is tight.
But on the positive side having guys who can routinely give you six innings does take some pressure off of the bullpen.
I didn’t mention them because short of them selling the franchise today they aren’t going anywhere. So I didn’t address their role in what I describe as a total breakdown mess.
Hence, the term/name “BillyMo” — just to make it obvious.
Sure feels like MO is trying to put together a rotation of a bunch of #5 pitchers not actual good pitchers….team still one of if not worst in the division.
Every time Lynn scatters three runs on eight hits pitching into the 7th inning, he will probably be lifted for allowing a couple runners on. One of the two runners will score every other start for a 75% strand rate.
This will replicate his miserable 2023.
I would have loved that. Give me 6+ innings and three, sometimes four runs over what we got last year every time.I agree Nigel. Too many times last year we were down 8-0 after three innings with no chance to come back. That demoralizes a team.
I can’t wait for the photos of the four giants and Yamamoto in the middle. Am I getting ahead of myself? Nah…
I thought I would look at some pitchers ordered by 2023 FIP. I bolded what might be our rotation if nothing else happens. Feel free to add in your favorites.
Gray 2.83
Montgomery 3.27
Snell 3.44
Cease 3.72
Matz 3.75
Lugo 3.83
Thompson 3.87
Wacha 3.89
Nola 4.03
Gibson 4.13
Mikolas 4.27
Liberatore 4.28
Flaherty 4.84
Hudson 5.06
Giolito 5.27
Lynn 5.53
Wainwright 5.99I might have mentioned that Matz, Thompson and Liberatore had some innings out of the pen mixed in. Matz and Liberatore’s overall stats are propped up some by much better results in relief. Thompson’s results were similar across roles. Obviously, the three innings eaters are well down the list from the better performers. If they end up 3,4,5 in the rotation, it would be a reasonable rebuild. If Mo is counting on them to put wins on the board it is similar to his delusional off season last year.
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If Mo is counting on them to put wins on the board it is similar to his delusional off season last year.
If they sign Yamamoto and make a trade for another guy better than anything they have now, it’s a monster offseason for MO. If nothing else is added, it’s as you say.
I’m hoping for Alek Manoah in a trade. Blue Jays are an active and proven trading partner for the Cardinals. Manoah has fallen out of favor with the Jays. Could have a huge bounce back season in 2024.
Unless you can get a couple of top tier starters, I would have stayed younger and planned on going with Libby, Hudson, Woody and Thompson in the rotation. Pretty much stuck with Mikolas as the “ace”. Matz would be a bullpen, swing-man.
I think we made a mistake letting Hudson go. Less hits than IP, good sinker. One of those guys who with a little better command can be real good.
The way moves backfire on this team in recent years, I would not be surprised to see Dak a 2024 all-star, while Lynn and Gibson are flops.
I just heard Jeff Jones say that if Sonny Gray is our starting pitcher opening day, it was a bad off-season. Anyone besides me agree with that? He also seemed to think, fwiw, that the Cardinals will definitely be serious players for Yamamoto. Said flat out he knew many inside the Cardinals org were pushing for it. Guess what really matters is who that is and where Yamamoto ultimately wants to go.
Based on what’s been done so far, I think the only upgrades to the rotation will occur if:
1. If we only get on pitcher, it is Montgomery or Yamamoto
2. If we get two pitchers better than we have, Gray would be a decent #1, but I don’t like the QO attached. But Gray + Ryu/Clevinger/Lugo would be an upgrade to our rotation.
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