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Cards27:I hope Burns is still available. He nearly has the stuff of Skenes. We can’t afford miss in the 1st rd. (no 2nd) I agree with 27….. Burns would be the best selection for us at #7.
Arkansas LHP Hagen Smith is now the highest-ranked pitcher only in MLB Pipeline’s updated 2024 draft rankings.
Smith is 8-0 with a 1.53 ERA, 22 walks and 100 strikeouts so far this season. https://t.co/i0KtJMu6dp #WPS pic.twitter.com/90gtdLe4ZA
— Mason Choate (@ChoateMason) April 25, 2024
I do believe that if either Chase Burns or Hagen Smith are available at #7, they will be the choice.
I am hoping if neither are available, the Cardinals choose a bat rather than reach for the next best pitcher.
Maybe they just shouldn’t draft college hitters from the state of Arizona (Brett Wallace, Ryan Holgate, Chase Davis).
Burns struck out 14 last night. I have a bad feeling he’ll be picked before us. But that might leave us with Smith which will work.
Hagen Smith with another dominating performance last night. He has now struck out 48% of batters faced this season.
I may post about him as often as Shady posts about Burly but I promise I won’t start a new thread…:)
Not bad. pic.twitter.com/hkrmxbPQwz
— Mason Choate (@ChoateMason) April 27, 2024
I know we haven’t developed pitching in years, but I wouldn’t want to draft a pitcher at the top of the draft. Pitchers are way too injury prone and the success rate for top draft pick pitchers isn’t great either. The general rule of don’t draft for need very much applies as who knows what our needs re in 3 to 5 years.
The Cardinals have been great at turning late round picks into above average players, so I would take the risk to get a player with more star potential. Connor Griffen or Braden Montgomery would be my choice currently if they last to 7.
I don’t knpw what the Cardinals specific needs will be in 3-5 years but you can never have enough young high end pitching. Ever. Our current rotation is a bunch of averigish guys over the age of 30. Not ideal.
My rule of thumb is to focus on players from high end college programs who have played against high end competiton.
Alright gscottar – we know your pick for Round 1, but who is your pick in Round 3?
I have no idea. I am not a draft expert really and haven’t done a deep dive of lower ranked players.
I know we haven’t developed pitching in years, but I wouldn’t want to draft a pitcher at the top of the draft…. The general rule of don’t draft for need very much applies as who knows what our needs re in 3 to 5 years.
I don’t think it would be drafting for need. I think Burns and Smith are two of the top five players in the draft.
The thing that concerns me about Montgomery are the strikeouts. He already has 34, so he’ll probably finish with 50-60, which is pretty high for a college player in the first round. Especially for the Cardinals.
^^^^^
Montgomery has more BB than strikeouts. And he has over 200 PA’s.
Not sure his strikeouts are a major concern. Doesn’t seem an unreasonable amount, but time will tell.One of the things not addressed with the elimination of minor league teams and now the moved up start date of the complex leagues is how players from the July draft will be affected. There essentially won’t be any time after the draft for these guys to get any game experience since the complex seasons end a week after the draft concludes.
It isn’t that much of a change unless they draft any high school position players. Hitters will go to Palm Beach and pitchers will only pitch on the back fields, same as 2023.
Thanks BW. I thought more players had been assigned to FCL last year than they were. Looks like a few position players and a handful of pitchers were assigned after the draft.
According to this AP article, MLB teams have reportedly been encouraging high school players to withdraw from school and set up residency in foreign countries to avoid the MLB Draft.
https://apnews.com/article/mlb-draft-92aaca63432551a1282fdcae69eb95a6
That is not new. It is the Alex Reyes approach, which he did 13 years ago… He grew up in New Jersey, but during high school went back to live with family in the Dominican to bypass the draft.
All that would do today is allow a player to select his organization. He probably won’t get more money than in the draft as international bonuses are now capped as tightly as the domestic draft, though they are not slotted. That wasn’t the case when Reyes was a teen.
Kiley McDaniel has the Cardinals drafting Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M, but says they are looking at a couple of other players also.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40101500/2024-draft-rankings-20-mock-draft-top-prospects
Blake & Brian brought up Travis Honeyman in their podcast this morning.
I hope the Cardinals stop drafting injured players.
The three that I recall them doing haven’t worked out at all.
Steven Gingery: 4th rounder in 2018. Looks like he pitched one game in the Cardinals system, then retired.
Alec Willis: 7th rounder in 2021. Has pitched 15.1 innings across parts of three seasons.
Travis Honeyman: 3rd rounder in 2023. Hasn’t played a game in the Cardinals system yet.
This doesn’t seem to be a strategy that is working out well for the Cardinals.
For what its worth…Keith Law in the Athletic says their is a tier of 11 top players then a small drop to the next grouping; his top 11 are the following in order:
Bazzana, Condon, Smith, Kurtz, Caglianone, Burns, Wetherholt, Yesavage, Montgomery, Griffin and Rainer
He had the Cardinals taking the SS from West Virginia Wetherholt… as Burns and Smith were gone before 7…he also mentioned Montgomery as a possibility…if one of the 2 pitchers fall to 7 they would be a possibility.
Wetherholt suddenly became a shortstop his draft year, not having previously played there other than two games last year.
Davis was the first college position player the Cardinals took as their first pick in quite a while. If they do it twice in a row maybe they have changed their approach.
I’ll be surprised if either Smith or Burns last until the Cardinals pick at #7. It may come down to the slugging 1B, Kurtz, or the top high school prospect, Connor Griffin, for the Cardinals. They would need assurance that they could sign Griffin. He appears to really be looking forward to playing for LSU.
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