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There isn’t any point trying to talk about Wetherholt in any sort of rational way right now. In the aftermath of the pick I did nothing but quote a respected site’s blurb on him, which seemed reasonable and balanced, and was accused of always being negative. We have to just let the euphoria blow over, which we know from past experience can take a very long time.
It’s not that much easier to talk about the draft as a whole. You have to be careful about running up against the Randy-love crowd or tripping over water buckets. I will say that we were picking near the top and our second pick wasn’t even in the top 200. To me that means your first pick better be a potential superstar, rather than a solid bet to make a ML roster. The reason I say that is because we can develop those guys from later picks, as our current roster proves beyond debate. And that brings us back around to Wetherholt, and whether he is a decent bet to be a potential superstar. And that is what we cannot discuss rationally right now, as I already found out.
LACardFan
The same people raving about Wetherholt are the same people who raved about Nick Madrigal’s bat-to-ball skills.
5’7 160 vs 5’10 190. Comparing Wetherholt to Madrigal is a great way to diminish (no pun intended) Wetherholt’s potential.
I have no problem with the Wetherholt pick. There was more than one mock that had him number one overall so I am assuming he is pretty good. The rest of the draft was blah but we have had lower round picks excel in the past. You never know who is going to blossom.
One problem we keep running into, and bling mentioned this recently, is that the Cardinals keep robbing themselves of draft picks by signing free agents attached to a qualifying offer. Why are they doing this? Because the farm system is not adequately producing what we need at that moment, thus the siginings of Contreras and Gray. We really really need to get out this cycle of robbing peter to pay paul.
Another change is that we are no longer eligible for the competitive balance picks. (Thanks Theo Epstein). He railed against it for years.
FWIW, I agree with Theo. The Cards pride themselves in being COMPETITIVE every year, and they were until 2023. They should not be receiving welfare intended for non-competitive teams.
Also, MLB shouldn’t give it to teams like Oakland that aren’t trying, but that is a different topic…
My opinion = “rational”
Your opinion = “irrational”Neither is based on fact. So why not just have the discussion without running the other side down?
The competitive balance picks are supposed to be based on revenue and market size. I don’t think it has anything to do with spending or W-L records. What changed for the Cardinals to get bumped out? Did they suddenly start raking in a lot more reveune and grow in market size?
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-draft-picks
I am pretty sure winning percentage is also part of the formula. Maybe that is what was added to knock the Cards out. But the formula details are not publicized.
Maybe they changed how they define markets. StL metro area vs. the team’s real multi-state market? Maybe they changed the weighting of the factors. I dunno.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-competitive-balance-rounds-set-2024
P.S. I did a bit of research and most of the Theo whining was back in 2014. The article you posted the link to says that the process was changed in 2017 (again no specifics).
This talk about Wetherholt demanding above slot money is a rumor, and nothing more. Gronky, LACardFan, and bb summed it up well. I doubt that the Cardinals will pay him any more than his slot value of $6.82M. And if they do, it will be very little more. It’s possible that his agent went fishing for over slot money. But, so what?
The good news is we won’t have to wait long to learn the specifics of Wetherholt’s signing bonus. Players have to be signed by August 1.
More draft picks signed by the Cards (pending physicals)
The #Cardinals signed 12th rounder Ian Petrutz and 13th rounder Nolan Sparks for $250,000 each.
They also signed 15th rounder Sam Brodersen and 20th rounder Owen Rice for $150,000 each.
— Carlos Collazo (@CarlosACollazo) July 19, 2024
Don’t get the overslot bonuses for Sr signs such as Sparks who weren’t exactly highly touted.
But it isn’t my money so sign away!Don’t these signing suggest we have an agreement with Wetherholt pending a physical? I wouldn’t think you would spend extra on these guys who aren’t getting the minimum unless they were sure with Wetherholt.
Ah, I see you don’t go against the cap unless the rounds 10-20 sign for over 150k. Has that number been risen lately? I thought it was considerably lower.
Brian – the thing about how they have defined competitive balance picks now is that it was specifically rewritten to stop the Cardinals from receiving a competitive balance pick.
I have more issue with large market teams like the A’s, Marlins and Rays receiving actual welfare because their owners decided crying poor was their best profit maximization strategy than the Cardinals receiving a competitive balance pick because they are actually one of the smallest markets.
Note: When the A’s move out of Oakland, they will actually be a small market team.
I don’t get signing college seniors overslot either. A lot of teams just offer them $10,000.
Yes Mrperkins, they raised rounds 11-20 from $125k to $150k a few years ago…
5’7 160 vs 5’10 190. Comparing Wetherholt to Madrigal is a great way to diminish (no pun intended) Wetherholt’s potential.
Pads – I am sure with a bit of research you can read all the writeups on Madrigal at the time and can compare them to the write-ups on Wetherholt.
The key is that only any 11-20 round signings that are over $150,000 take away money from the cap. And with the exception of 19th rounder Brendan Lawson, who isn’t signing anyway, the Cards are now done with rounds 11-20.
As noted, the 11-20 round line was $125K. That was in place from 2017 through 2021. It went up to $150K with the new CBA in 2022. Prior to 2017, it was $100K.
The way they are throwing money around, overpaying seniors, that kid from Mo State who only got $10k must be the 3 legged dog of prospects. I hope he lights it up.
Note: When the A’s move out of Oakland, they will actually be a small market team.
I don’t mind Oakland getting it. While they are in the San Fran metro area, Oakland doesn’t get a lot of benefit from it. Same with the White Sox to some degree.
It is absurd STL was taken out because of winning percentage, that shouldnt be a factor. Teams like LA giving out $700M contracts should reinforce that as well. In fact, I think it would be good to give middle of the road teams extra 4th or 5th round picks.
I know the write ups on Madrigal were very glowing as is all reports on top draft picks, but his frame should’ve been factored in more in hindsight. Not hitting double digit homeruns should’ve been a flag too. Wetherholt’s slugging is over .100 points higher for their college careers.
Although, he did hit well in limited time with the Sox.
Wetherholt signs for just slightly over slot.
https://twitter.com/CarlosACollazo/status/1814725426931245523
With several days of announced signing bonuses, the Cardinals only have Braden Davis (3) and Brendan Lawson (19) to sign. Lawson has already said he won’t be signing. The Cardinals have $610,250 remaining in their bonus pool.
BHC, are you including the 5% overage in that calculation? With the overage, they should have a tick over $10.7 mm of total pool. FWIW, Davis’s slot value (Rd 5) is $485,700.
If Wetherholt is the fabulous hitter some claim, why not start him out at AA? If he’s overmatched, then send him down to A ball. Nothing lost. If he’s successful at AA, it might help Mo decide what to do in the off season with all the second basemen at AAA and above.
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