2021 Rotation

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  • #170473
    grayssportsalmanac
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    I dont believe scherzer cares about anything more than the bottom line and everything else equal pitching for a team that is willing to contend. Ive seen ppl claim how much he wants to pitch for stl- and while i dont follow the nats beat writers for quotes – ive never heard or seen anything to back that up.

    That being said the cardinals are a rare bird when it comes to FAs..not willing to risk tons on $$ on a 23 yr old super phenoms upside- but willing to overpay on their downslide. Scherzer could be a perfect fit at a 3/60ish+ contract- and i think that might actually fit for everyone.

    #170512
    gscottar
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    The last thing I want to see is for the Cardinals to take on bad contract since, for the first time in awhile, they won’t have one on the books.

    I think Mikolas might still qualify as a bad contract.

    #170513
    gscottar
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    Ive seen ppl claim how much he wants to pitch for stl- and while i dont follow the nats beat writers for quotes – ive never heard or seen anything to back that up.

    I have never seen any direct quotes stating that either.

    Scherzer could be a perfect fit at a 3/60ish+ contract- and i think that might actually fit for everyone.

    It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. I imagine if the Dodgers want him bad enough they will keep him. I just get the feeling that DeWitt is going to use our attendance woes as a reason not to ramp up the payroll. We already have three big contracts on the books (Arenado, Goldy, Mikolas). I don’t see a fourth being added. We will probably bring back Yadi, Waino, maybe Kim, Happ, LeBlanc, or Lester, and a few other depth pieces. Then sign our arbitration cases. I expect the payroll to be under $150M which is under the pre-covid payrolls.

    #170542
    mudville
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    Mikolas pretty good against the Pirates last Friday night. He got better after the first inning. We’ll probably know by the end of 2021 if he is a bad contract. It sure would be nice if he pitches like he did in his first two years with the Cardinals. That would go a long way toward stabilizing the rotation for 2022.

    #170544
    gscottar
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    We shall see. He has given us 9 innings this year for $17M. Not much bang for the buck.

    #170545
    stlcard25
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    We already have three big contracts on the books (Arenado, Goldy, Mikolas). I don’t see a fourth being added. We will probably bring back Yadi, Waino, maybe Kim, Happ, LeBlanc, or Lester, and a few other depth pieces. Then sign our arbitration cases. I expect the payroll to be under $150M which is under the pre-covid payrolls.

    If that’s the strategy, payroll would be like $120M. That’s like 2013 level, and there’s really no excuse for it. Playing the halfway game is wasting what’s left of Arenado and Goldy’s prime years. I expect some free agent maneuvering this year. After the CBA is resolved, of course.

    #170546
    blingboy
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    We do need to remember that something besides fate it responsible for this season’s problems. Everyone had a 2020 and a minors reconfiguration. Several teams, including Milwaukee, had equal or worse injury troubles. The FO may try to do wonders this winter but if our pitchers can’t pitch and our offense is unproductive and we cannot evaluate talent then it will not produce results. Problems besides the roster need to be fixed.

    #170549
    gscottar
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    If that’s the strategy, payroll would be like $120M.

    I think it would be a little more than that. We are around $80M now for 2022. Let’s say at least $20M for arbitration, $20M to bring back Yadi and Waino, and then $15M for some decent depth pieces, plus the league minimum guys. That puts you around $135M to $140M.

    #170551
    stlcard25
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    then $15M for some decent depth pieces, plus the league minimum guys. That puts you around $135M to $140M.

    If the threshold is decent, then maybe. But Leblanc, Lester, Happ are like $1-2M fliers IMO. Kim maybe slightly more. I’d still say around $120-125M for the roster mentioned. That’s terribly low for a team that raked in $70M in profits yearly for the last decade.

    That team also will be even more mediocre than this year’s team. I’d look to trade Mikolas (eat most of what you need to, but hope he pitches well enough this year that it’s at least a $5M savings) and Dejong and really look to upgrade the team. For $160M, which is very reasonable, you can do a lot.

    #170555
    Bob Reed
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    Apologies if someone has brought this up already, but it looks like Jon Lester (4 starts with the Cards and a nightmarish 7.08 ERA) has impressed manager Mike Shildt so darned much that he’s keeping his rotation slot, and K.K. Kim is being demoted to the bullpen.

    As a reminder, Kim has made 19 starts this year with a 3.36 ERA. Overall as a Redbird he’s made 26 starts with a 2.79 ERA. As far as Mike Shildt is concerned, those numbers don’t rate another shot at the rotation — not when you’ve got Jon Lester and his 7+ ERA.

    —————————

    There’s no question whether Kim wants to start. Nothing like that. He very much prefers to start. And why wouldn’t he? He’s been a terrific starter for the Cardinals, and he was a terrific starter for many years overseas. That’s what he is, a really really effective starting pitcher. For full context, here’s a list of MLB starting pitchers with WORSE ERA’s than K.K. over the combined 2020/21 seasons (min. 120 IP):

    Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Adam Wainwright, Yu Darvish, Max Fried, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Sandy Alcantara…well, you get the idea. Now try to imagine any of those guys coming back from the Disabled List and being told that they had lost their rotation spot to Jon Lester. Jon Lester, who had made 4 starts for their team, and logged a 7+ ERA.

    Insane, right? Just couldn’t ever happen. Violates all common sense. But then, as the poet said, common sense is not so common.

    #170559
    1964cards
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    I know Ki. Has been activated. However, I thought I heard that the club was concerned with how much work they give him due to the nature of his injury. As a result, they want to limit Kim’s pitches per outing. That is why he is moving to the bull pen after coming off the IL. Please correct me if I have got it wrong.

    I agree Kim has performed well.

    #170561
    Bob Reed
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    I haven’t read anything to that effect, ’64cards. Here are two direct quotes on the matter:

    “He’d like to start, prefer to start. I mean, people that are used to starting and used to certain roles want to keep the roles. That’s the competitor in him, and he was honest about that, which I appreciated,” Shildt said.

    “I’ll have to do my best out of the bullpen,” said Kim through interpreter Craig Choi. ” … I think with my body fitness, I could start as a starter.”

    ——————————–

    Jon Lester hasn’t been a good starting pitcher since 2018. This moment represents a wonderful opportunity to replace him in the rotation with someone who may be a health risk, but who has been exceedingly effective when he is able to take the mound.

    I think of it like this. Say Nolan Arenado went down for 10 days with an injury…and came back to find that Matt Carpenter had taken over his 3rd base job, with Arenado moving to a role as top pinch-hitter. After all, Matt Carpenter — just like Jon Lester — was very, very good waaay back in 2018, and has been mediocre-to-bad ever since.

    But that would be pretty stupid, replacing someone who is much better and much younger, with someone who is old and terrible. Almost Shildtian you might say.

    You know what maybe bugs me most? The idea that, in Shildt’s mind, K.K. Kim’s “role” has been starting pitcher. Like this is kinda a toss-up decision, an arbitrary coin flip sort of thing. Sigh.

    In terms of effectiveness the man has been a star-level pitcher at the MLB level for two seasons. It is asinine to suggest a “role” change for anyone with his track record. Kim is NOT a relief pitcher. Shildt idiotically already tried it once, and the idea flopped badly. So now the fool returneth to his folly. Heaven help us.

    #170567
    gscottar
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    From what I have read the Cardinals claim they didn’t have time to ramp up Kim to be a starter. It was going to take too many rehab outings in the minors. That doesn’t really compute to me since Kim was only on the IL for a very short time but that was their claim.

    And I agree that Kim should be in the rotation over Lester. Lester has been terrible.

    #170590
    PadsFS
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    grayssportsalmanac

    That being said the cardinals are a rare bird when it comes to FAs..not willing to risk tons on $$ on a 23 yr old super phenoms upside- but willing to overpay on their downslide. Scherzer could be a perfect fit at a 3/60ish+ contract- and i think that might actually fit for everyone.

    This is too low. I think a minimum would be 3yr/$75M or 2yr/$60M for Scherzer.

    #170591
    PadsFS
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    gscottar

    I think it would be a little more than that. We are around $80M now for 2022. Let’s say at least $20M for arbitration, $20M to bring back Yadi and Waino, and then $15M for some decent depth pieces, plus the league minimum guys. That puts you around $135M to $140M.

    I have the payroll at $135.15M for next year with Wainwright ($10M), Molina ($9M), and Kim ($8M) back.

    Remember also, the Cardinals will be paying Arenado $25.43M next year:
    $35M salary
    – $5.57M paid by Rockies
    – $6M deferred to the 2030s
    + $2M from 2021’s $20M deferral due

    I truly believe we are WS contenders next year if we just add Scherzer ($25M) and Schwarber ($20M), which would take that payroll to $180M.

    They do have $5M in buyouts for A. Miller ($2.5M), Carpenter ($2M), and Martinez ($0.5M), which I didn’t factor in.

    #170592
    gscottar
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    That sounds about right Pads. I like the idea of adding Scherzer and Schwarber if they are relatively short term deals but I am now assuming the Cardinals aren’t going to go big.

    #170593
    forsch31
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    At either of Pads’ figures for Scherzer, I think the Cardinals should be buyers. He could help transform this starting staff into one of the best in the NL. Scherzer, Flaherty and Waino would be a mean 1-2-3 punch.

    #170596
    gscottar
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    They do have $5M in buyouts for A. Miller ($2.5M), Carpenter ($2M), and Martinez ($0.5M), which I didn’t factor in.

    Actually there is no buyout on A. Miller.

    #170597
    BlackHillsCard
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    Wouldn’t the buyout on Martinez also include the $500K for 2023?

    #170600
    gscottar
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    Probably so but it has never been clear to me how to categorize buyouts. Cot’s will list buyouts as a future payroll expense but then when that year arrives the buyout magically disappears from their spreadsheet.

    #170603
    mudville
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    I’m not interested in signing up a 38 year old pitcher for 2 or 3 years at $20-$25 AVV. IMO, this would be a classic case of paying a player for what he has already done rather than for what you are going to get from him going forward. If they figure they can afford to take on another big contract, let it be for one of the primo shortstops that will be available. Flaherty, Hudson, Mikolas, Waino, and Kim looks like a pretty good rotation. And any one of Liberatore, Woodford, Thompson, Oviedo has to start getting some major league innings soon. It would be nice if they could package DeJong in a trade for a midrotation pitcher who is coming up on free agency. Maybe Kim could stay in the bullpen for long relief. It’s starting to look like Kim is getting susceptible to injuries.

    #170609
    blingboy
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    Lester only goes 5 innings so Kim will get plenty of work.

    #170610
    forsch31
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    gscott, I wonder if Cots does that because the buyout happens shortly after the season ends. Then it could be included in the previous year’s payroll. As an example, maybe Carpenter’s $2 million buyout gets added to the 2021 payroll rather than the 2022 payroll because it happens right after the 2021 season ends and no income will be earned in the 2022 year by Carpenter.

    #170649
    blingboy
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    Flaherty makes $3.9 million this year and is arb eligible again this winter. That will be an interesting situation. We should know more about his injury today or tomorrow.

    #170651
    stlcard25
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    I truly believe we are WS contenders next year if we just add Scherzer ($25M) and Schwarber ($20M), which would take that payroll to $180M.

    I don’t think Schwarber will cost anywhere near $20M next year. For that price, we ought to be able to swing Conforto, who would be a true upgrade to the lineup. Schwarber is a very limited player who should come in around the $10M mark despite his good 2021. I also think Kim-Waino-Yadi comes in a good bit lower than $27M for the three of them…more like $20Mish. Again, if you can trade Dejong and Mikolas for some salary relief, there is a lot that can be done to upgrade the team.

Viewing 25 posts - 451 through 475 (of 543 total)
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