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I believe most of the MLB top 100 prospects eventually settle in as regular major leaguers. Knizner never sniffed the top 100. Herrera right now is ranked #79.
It’s really a fine line. Do you want the heir apparent sitting on the bench most of the time at the major league level, just to get a taste, or playing everyday? That’s what September call ups are for.Herrera is hitting .220 in the Texas League. Lots of guys look great in A ball and then fade. Lets see if he can do something besides swat flies in the upper levels before anointing him.
Liberator and Gorman aren’t tearing it up either. I know, they will be fine. Let’s not write it in ink until they’re fine.
Plenty of prospects fall short. Some make it, too. One easy metric that many use to predict future success is an age vs level comparison for parsing out numbers. Here are the three you’re most concerned with, BB:
Herrera, age 21: 98 wRC+ at AA
Gorman, age 21: 130 wRC+ at AA, 77 wRC+ at AAA
Libby, age 21: 5.15 ERA/5.22 FIP at AAA
So I agree that there are some indicators of concern. Liberatore in specific has been mediocre at times. He also had the biggest jump, all the way from A ball to Memphis. The other two have been about what you’d expect from a young for level player who lost a year of games. I don’t see anything in their performance that says that they’ve washed out just yet, and that goes for all three of them.
Not worried about Gorman, Walker, Burleson, Herrera, Thompson, etc. Really intrigued now with Yepez. Semi intrigued with Capel.
Will also continue to watch Torres, Baker, Donovan, Nunez, etc.
But I really wonder about guys who are just steady Eddies, who might help. For instance, what about Robertson for a 5/6 infield spot? Or Mendoza? What about Whitley when he comes back? Or Conner Thomas?
Seems like the Cards drafted at least one pitcher fairly high in most drafts –
2012 – Wacha
2013 – Gonzalez, Kaminsky, Mayers
2014 – Weaver, Flaherty, Morales
2015 – Woodford, Hicks
2016 – Hudson, Jones, Gallen
2017 – Bust draft
2018 – Roberts, Gingery
2019 – Thompson, Locey, Pallante
2020 – Hence, Prater, Bedell
2021 – McGreely, LoveWhat sticks out are the 2017 and 2018 drafts as far as pitching is concerned. It’s showing up right now.
The busts of Roberts, Gingery and trades of Galen and Locey have hurt.
Let’s talk about the 2022 rotation a bit. I kind of like the idea of going with veterans in 2022 with a very good shadow rotation waiting in the wings in Memphis ready to fill in and take over in 2023. I like the idea of the young guys staying at AAA until they are absolutely ready instead of rushing them out of desperation.
A radical idea would be to try to trade Mikolas. We would have to eat some of the contract no doubt. We could also sell high on Reyes and throw in Hudson to a team like the Yankees for maybe Gleybar Torres and a prospect.
We would have money to spend on older free agents for a year or two.
Flaherty
Scherzer
Wainwright
Kim
Lester
LeBlancMemphis:
Liberatore
Oviedo
Woodford
Rondon
ThompsonThat Memphis rotation could be dynamite and ready to take over St. Louis by 2023.
A radical idea would be to try to trade Mikolas. We would have to eat some of the contract no doubt. We could also sell high on Reyes and throw in Hudson to a team like the Yankees for maybe Gleybar Torres and a prospect.
I’d be happy to trade Mikolas if he comes back and looks even decent. Eat a big chunk of money and be done with it.
As for trading Reyes and Hudson, that’s a big no for me. We’ve suffered through all the lost years with Alex…it’s sink or swim with the Cards for him, IMO. And Hudson coming back from TJ would be at an all time low value. I really like the way he was rounding into form before his injury last year (Ks up and BBs down) and think he’s a solid #2 going forward. So I say keep him.
The rest of the rotation could be filled out with the types you are espousing, and the other guys could sit in Memphis and come up when injuries happen or they force the issue.
stl25:
Plenty of prospects fall short. Some make it, too.
Its too bad that the FO decides to keep the ones that fall short (hence having to get the 2 “inning eaters” aboard). And then there’s the one’s that make it too…. yeah for other teams. You all know that cast.
As for trading Reyes and Hudson, that’s a big no for me.
I understand your thinking but I am just not sold on Reyes staying healthy and his value may never be higher than it is right now. Hudson would be a sell low candidate but if you packaged the two together you could probably get Torres and a good prospect, which would move Edman to utility player, which is what he is.
I don’t expect any of this to happen. That Cardinals usually operate under the path of least resistance plan. The 2022 rotation will probably be:
Flaherty
Wainwright
Mikolas
Hudson
ReyesWe would still have the very good shadow rotation in Memphis though.
I would think they will spend some money on some sort of starting pitching this off-season, whether they go big or small. There’s just too much uncertainty with guys coming back from injury.
I also think that Torres is a good player, but I’d rather target a SS and slide Dejong into a utility IF role(or trade him for what you can), then make Edman the 4th OFer.
Wainwright
Flaherty
Kim
Mikolas
Reyes
Hudson
Oviedo
Liberatore
Rondon
Woodford
Thompson
This group seems like the current plan.
I think Kim would be best served by accepting a qualifying offer. He is a real value even at that price. Do people really prefer Scherzer at 3/90 over KK at 1/19?
The offense will be dramatically improved by not giving so many at bats to Carpenter, Thomas, Williams, and that thing Dejong was in the first half. (And yes…I will argue that no one we play will be as unproductive as that group was)I can’t see Kim getting a Qualifying Offer. He’s a guy who wouldn’t get much more than $19M on a 2-3 year deal.
That’s a great question, 25. He might if he wants the excitement of the playoffs one more time. But he also might want to spend more time with his wife, 4 daughters, and adopted son. He sure doesn’t need the money.
There is zero chance that the Cardinals would offer Kim a QO, and I am not even sure he is eligible for one. Regardless, he would be very fortunate to get $10M/year. $19M is out of the question.
Per Shildt: Flaherty will make another rehab start on Friday. If all goes well, he’ll return to the Cards rotation. #STLCards
— Jim Hayes (@TheCatOnBallyTV) August 4, 2021
Before next season I think Mo needs to acquire two starters. Durable hosses that can eat innings at around a .500 clip. Lynn, Gomber types that answer the bell and aren’t throwing batting practice. With that and the laundry list of hopefuls and rehabbing injury cases that several commenters have posted, plus anyone who shows some life in Memphis, we might be able to go the season with an MLB worthy rotation that is not too dreadful, without having to dumpster dive to field a rotation in St. Louis. I suspect there will be a need to scrounge up arms from scrap heaps to fill out the upper MiLB pitching staffs again. The pen will likely be similar to this year since I doubt Mo will spend any money on relievers. If we are not stuck with guys going 4 or 5 innings all the time we might be OKish.
STL ownership can’t see past profits lost in 2020.
They bailed on Wong to save 11.5mil. Kicked Brebbia to the curb over his minimal arb salary and now Gants arb3 is off the books.
I agree on “zero chance” KK gets a 19mil-ish Q-offer.
Not a matter of a qualifying offer for Kim. If they want him back they’ll simply extend him for a year or two.
A comment on Gorman this year: He started out in AA hitting .143/.351/.250/.601 in his first 9 games. He then hit .315/.354/.557/.911 in his next 34 games. Then, he came up to AAA and started out hitting .103/.146/.103/.249 in his first 10 games. Over the last 19 games, he is hitting .300/.349/.538/.886. Give him some time.
For 2022, the only starter that can be written in for sure is Flaherty. If we assume everyone is healthy for day 1 of spring training, then things get just a little clearer. Hudson would be another starter. Personally, I want Reyes to get the opportunity to start. He has the stuff to be another ace. If I were in charge and Waino wants to pitch another year, he is re-signed. For the 5th spot, I would try to sign Scherzer. That would line up a rotation like this:
Flaherty
Hudson
Reyes
Waino
ScherzerNo team wants to face that starting staff in the post-season.
Mikolas would be a reliever or traded. He could be the 5th starter if Scherzer couldn’t be signed. I wouldn’t have a problem signing Kim to a 1 or 2 year contract at no more than $4 million AAV. He would be a reliever or swing starter. I would let almost all of the expiring contracts go somewhere else. It is also time to trade 1 or 2 of the other pitchers that are more marginal such as Woodford and Fernandez.
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