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Why doesn’t bccran like Nolan Gorman? 😉
P.S. If the Cardinals supposedly “learned their lesson” about picking high school position players, why did they take Carlson and Gorman AFTER the referenced stumbles? Hmmm….
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High School position players drafted by the Cards in the first 5 rounds this century –
2000 – Shaun Boyd (1), Yadier Molina (4)
2001 – Joe Mather (3)
2002 – Calvin Hayes (1), Josh Bell (5)
2003 – Daric Barton (1), Brandon Yarbrough (5)
2004 – none
2005 – Colby Rasmus (1), Daryl Jones (3), Bryan Anderson (4)
2006 – none
2007 – Pete Kozma (1)
2008 – Niko Vasquez (3)
2009 – none
2010 – none
2011 – Charlie Tilson (1) CJ McElroy (3) Kenny Peoples-
Walls (4)
2012 – Steve Bean (CA), Carson Kelly (2)
2013 – Oscar Mercado (2)
2014 – none
2015 – Nick Plummer (1), Bryce Denton (2)
2016 – Delvin Perez (1), Dylan Carlson (1), Walker Robbins (5)
2017 – none
2018 – Nolan Gorman (1), Mateo Gil (3)
2019 – Trejyn Fletcher (2)Not a pretty picture. Only 26 drafted in 20 years. And of those, at the most only a handful have made it or have a chance of making it.
BW – I actually like Norman Gorman a whole bunch. We were very fortunate that he fell to us at #19. He won every age group home run hitting contest that he entered in the U.S.
He was unique, compared to other high school players we have drafted this century. If another high school player of the same ilk drops to us this year, sure, take him.So, again, the issue is not taking high schoolers. The issue is to only pick the ones who will be really good later!
Do you have such a list for this draft or will we have to wait for you to second-guess the pick (if it is made) later on?
P.S. You totally ignored my “learned their lesson” question…
25 –
High School position players drafted by the Cards in the first 5 rounds this century –
So they drafted one Hall of Famer (Yadi), a very highly touted guy they traded to seal their second World Series this century (Rasmus), someone who won them a playoff series with his key hit in 2012 (Kozma), a back and forth major leaguer (Tilson), someone they traded for another potential Hall of Famer in Goldy (Kelly), a starting CF for a playoff team in Cleveland (Mercado), and some incompletes with high potential in Carlson, Gorman and Fletcher.
I’m not sure what the complaint is…?
Kiley McDaniel dropped his first mock and he has the Cardinals selecting SS Ed Howard from Mount Caramel High School in Illinois. This is the same school that produced top Arizona Diamondbacks top prospect Alek Thomas.
That would be a dream. Howard is one of the more talented prep players in the class. McDaniel cites injury concerns as the reason for his slide.
“Howard is sliding a bit, as clubs are worried about a shoulder issue and how it may affect his throwing and thus his ultimate position.”
The general consensus for Howard is that he is a top 15 pick, so if he falls to the Cardinals that gives them a very talented bat.what shoulder issue? extent?
anyone know?I’ll stay with the facts that show college players in the draft have a higher percentage of success making it to the major leagues than high school players. That’s undeniable.
No, Brian, there are high school players and then there are high school players. As I said, Gorman was an exception because his track record on a national basis was extraordinary.
For instance, Plummer was a little 5’10” high school kid out of Michigan who had a “sweet swing”. In a state where they had changed the strike/ball counts.
No one knew what kind of talent Perez really had when juiceless.
Etc., Etc., Etc.
This is like Groundhog Day. Same points repeated. A general percentage cannot be legitimately applied to all situations. Otherwise, high schoolers would never get drafted and the Cardinals would not have Flaherty, Hicks, Molina, Carlson, etc… Since high schoolers have continued to be drafted in the real world, the people across the game who scout and draft players for a living have clearly not learned the lessons you think they have.
The reason is that organizations believe the high schooler has a higher ceiling and are willing to invest in him to find out. According to the general odds you cite, he may have lower chance of success than a college senior, but the ultimate benefit if he realizes his potential may be far greater. There is no magic risk-reward answer that fits all. No one expects every pick to hit. That is one reason why they have so many rounds. Some picks are safer and on some, teams are taking a home run swing.
When all is said and done, for me the final question is how good the drafts and player development have been to feed the MLB team. In that area, the Cardinals have been very good over time. But we have had this same kind of conversation multiple times already so I will stop with the generic discussion that leads nowhere.
Back to the 2020 draft, why not focus on the players available rather than trying to develop rules that are not going to be followed anyway? Are there any high schoolers you see who are in the Gorman/Carlson class?
In answer to your question, BW, at first glance I see several high schoolers that would be fine if they fell to us with the first pick. I go somewhat by size, and what the scouting reports say about them. Why size? Because we have taken some small outfielders in the past and none of them seem to have worked out.
Zac Veen – 6’5, 200 lbs. left handed hitting outfielder.
Ranked #7 overall in the draft. Signed with the U. of Florida. If he falls to #21, sure take him.Austin Hendrick – 6’1, 200 lbs. powerful left handed hitting outfielder headed to Miss. St. Ranked #13 overall. Would take him if he fell to #21.
Ed Howard – 6’2″, 195 lbs. Tall and rangy for a SS. Signed with U. of Oklahoma. Ranked #15. Might shy away from him for a pick at #21. Just a personal opinion.
Robert Hassell – 6’2″, 190 lbs. left handed power
outfielder. I like that he’s committed to Vandy.
Ranked #16 in the draft. Also pitches, so he must have a strong arm. If he falls 5 places I’d grab him.Pete Crow-Armstrong – 6’1″, 175 lbs. Ranked #20. Good all around athlete playing both OF and also pitching some.
I would shy away from him. He was inconsistent last summer and in the shortened spring season. Red Flag for me.My top three would be at this point that we have a realistic chance at are:
1. Ed Howard
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong
3. Carmen MlodzinskiAlso, with pick #64 or 71 I would take Luke Little. 6’8″ lefty’s that throw 105 don’t come around often.
Thank you for sharing those names, bccran. I have not invested a lot in the available prepsters, but those are some good names to start. Maybe the Cards will get one of them, he becomes good, and it improves your historic outlook.
BW – My historic outlook improved with the Carlson and Gorman picks. Carlson came out of the blue. He wasn’t ranked in MLB’s top 200 draftees in 2016 going into the draft. Some scout did a terrific job. Of course they could take a bit of a risk with Perez and Carlson because they also had a #34 where they got Dakota Hudson. He was was a real coup (he was ranked #9 in one survey and number #13 in another). Does anyone know why he fell so far? As far as Gorman, when the top high school power hitter in the country falls all the way into your lap you almost have to take him.
Has it been announced whether the Draft will occur in 1, 2, or 3 days/nights? I know the original plan was 3 dates, but I haven’t seen an amended plan.
Let’s take a look at 5 more HS position players.
Ty Soderstrom – Catcher who is ranked #19 in the draft. Fitting size for a catcher – 6’2′, 190 lbs. Good left handed bat. Good student who is headed to UCLA. I know we don’t draft by position this high in the draft, but I wouldn’t personally take him since we already have Knizner and Herrera. JMHO.
Jordan Walker – Now here’s a kid who’s really interesting.
He’s a 6’5″ third baseman and pitcher who has both speed, power, and a strong arm. Could be an outstanding OF if he doesn’t stay at 3B. He’s ranked #33 in the draft. Very smart – heading to Duke. Doubt if he will last until #54, but if he does, and they know they can sign him, they should jump all over him.Drew Romo – catcher who is ranked #35 in draft. Would stay away from him. Switch hitter, but is slow at 6’1″, 205 lbs, and only has an average exit velocity of 91mph. Commited to LSU.
Blaze Jordan – Here’s your Nolan Gorman of the 2020 draft.
Ranked #42. Strong guy at 6’2″, 218 lbs. with a very athletic build who can play both 3B and 1B. Committed to Mississippi State. He won the national high school home run contest like Gorman. Wouldn’t take him with #21, but if he falls to #54 we should be all over him.Cade Horton – Here’s one of the best overall athletes in the draft. Ranked #47. He committed to U. Of Oklahoma as both a baseball player and as a quarterback for the football team. Plays SS, but also has hit 95 mph on the gun as a pitcher. I doubt he will sign, but if he will and is there at #54 I’d take him.
BigSmitty……
The shortened 2020 MLB Amateur Draft will be held remotely, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter thread). It’s not a particularly surprising development but is nevertheless yet another departure from the norm. Per Passan, teams won’t be permitted to have draft rooms. Each club’s head of baseball operations will be on camera during the draft, without audio, as was the case with last month’s virtually conducted NFL Draft. The MLB Draft will be conducted on June 10-11, with Day One includinng just the first round and Day Two featuring the rest.
more details:
the first round will take place Wednesday, June 10, airing at 6 p.m. on MLB Network. The second, third, fourth and fifth rounds will be held the following day, Thursday, June 11, and air at 4 p.m. on MLB Network.
note: ^ did not indicate Eastern Time or Central Time
I found this, which answers the time zone question:
Day 1 of the draft will be June 10 at 7 p.m. ET and include the first round (37 picks). Rounds 2-5 (123 picks) will begin a 5 p.m. the following day.
Is there a link of how much each of our draft picks slot values are? Another player not mentioned so far is prep LHP Daxton Fulton. He had Tommy John surgery, but this season that has less impact than usual. He has had some comps to Liberatore. I would use of one our picks on Fulton or Little.
Also, what are our top draft needs? I would go with BPA. but if they are an outfielder or middle infielder that would be even better.
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