2020 Cardinals Game #54 – Thu, Sept. 24 vs. Brewers

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  • #141373
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    7:15 p.m.
    LHP Kwang Hyun Kim (2-0, 1.59) vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (4-0, 1.77)
    FS Midwest // KMOX // WIJR

    #141524
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Well, the final series of the regular season is upon us. Typically this is a time of excitement for fans of a team in the playoff chase. This year, it feels like our bedraggled nine are limping to the finish line and so are we. I think we are all weary despite the season being all jammed into the last six weeks here in St Louis.

    A series win would likely be enough to make the postseason, and a loss (2-3, anyway) wouldn’t eliminate them but would surely make them have to fly to Detroit for a Monday DH and no one available to start. It would be nice to see some life in the bats, but I don’t know if that’s even possible at this point. Likely to be a lot of 1-2-3 run ledgers for our team, so it will be up to the pitching.

    #141531
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Neither team comes into this series with momentum.

    #141549
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Here is a reasonable scenario for the weekend to avoid the trip to Detroit.

    Cards win 3 of 5 from Milwaukee.
    Twins win 2 of 3 over the Reds.

    Then for second place in the division and guaranteed playoff berth:
    Cards are 30-28
    Reds are 30-30

    Because the Cards hold the tiebreaker over the Reds, they don’t need to play Games 59/60.

    However, if the Reds win 2 of 3, then the Cards must win 4 of 5 to avoid playing Monday.

    In the unlikely event the Cards win out, the Reds cannot pass them even if they also sweep.

    #141551
    Avatargscottar
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    The Twins are a better team than the Reds so maybe we can get some help there. Even though the Twins have clinched a playoff spot they are in a battle with the White Sox to win the division so they should have motivation to put their best lineup out on the field. I hope so anyway.

    #141552
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Bauer pitched yesterday on 3 days rest and that sets him up for the final regular season game also on 3 days rest.

    #141553
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The Twins are third seed and the Sox fourth seed right now so both would host their Wild Card Series, but the Indians and Yankees could pass one or both with four games remaining. On the other side of the coin, Minny could still grab the second seed. Plus as you said, winning the division is important to any team. Long-winded way of agreeing that the Twins have significant motivation to try to win.

    #141566
    AvatarPugsleyAddams
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    Is there any scenario where it would behoove our Birds to simply forfeit the twin bill in the Motor City? Who cares where we finish in the playoff pecking order as long as we just get in.

    #141571
    thejagerthejager
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    Pugs…i think that is a real possibility…but it does make me wonder WHO gets to decide whether those games matter? Obviously not Detroit…but if the seeding matters to OTHER teams do they get a say? Does MLB make the call if they matter at all then they are played?

    Such a weird year, I wish COVID was gone for so many reasons, but I am in Detroit (mile from the park) and the idea of taking the day off and heading the park to watch a Doubleheader of my Birds against the Tigers with something on the line would have been so great.

    sigh

    #141572
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #141573
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I can clarify for those of you who are confused and frustrated about the potential Monday games in Detroit. Here is the rule.

    “The games will be played only if a postseason position is to be determined or home field for a Wild Card Round matchup.”

    The latter is not likely as the top four teams are almost locked in (home field). But there are six teams vying for the last four spots.

    No, there is no scenario that would benefit the Cardinals by losing…

    #141574
    thejagerthejager
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    Thanks Brian

    Just read your article! Great stuff as always, now if you could just get me a seat to that doubleheader if it is played in Detroit. I wonder if i could dress up like a cutout. 😛

    #141591
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    Free

    For lunch today I had a ribeye steak in the air fryer, some Italian green beans, some sliced potatoes cooked in beef gravy, a piece of cherry pie, and one of those Klondike bars. yum yum

    My late din din tonight will be a microwaved bar-b-q rib sandwich and a piece of white layer cake. yum yum

    And I am going to call this one 6-2 Brewers tonight. I’ll be watching my last late game of the year tonight from the west coast, the A’s visiting the Dodgers.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #141592
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    In this series, with two pretty much evenly matched mediocre opponents, you figure each team will win a couple of games without much drama. Thus it is that fifth game that will be key, the one where each team has chances for the big hit, or key out on the defensive side to steal away the victory.

    With a double-header jammed in there, one of those seven inning contests might be the game that the losing club will look back at as the “one that got away”.

    Tougher for Milwaukee as they really need to get four. We will likely have one game where we score a bunch and win. Then we will have four games of 1 to 4 runs each of offense. Our pitching can probably get us one of those. Getting that third win will be the challenge.

    #141593
    AvatarCardinal in France
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    I have a feeling KK is going to throw a pretty good game today, strongly supported by my just finished dinner of scampi cooked lightly in butter, shallots, garlic and lemon juice, then laid in a baking dish, covered with grated parmesan and grilled in the oven to a golden brown and served over a bed of brown rice. Followed that with a small haagen Dazs chocolate sundae.

    That meal never fails with lefties.

    We ought to sneak by 3-2. But of course I won’t know until I get up tomorrow morning.

    #141594
    Avatarso_cal_cards_fan
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    Thank you Brian. A few minor nuances:

    If we win 5 against Brewers, guaranteeing 2nd, and the Padres lose their 4 Vs Giants, MLB could force us to play one or two in Detroit, as we hold the tiebreaker over the Padres for the 4th seed. This, unless the Cubs fold and we somehow win the division.

    If we win only two Vs Brewers, and split in Detroit, finishing 30-30 with the Brewers, we still might get 2nd place if the Reds are also 30-30. I believe we are all 10-10 head to head, and would go to Tiebreakers for last 20 games (or intra-division?) I haven’t looked at last 20 but both we and Reds best Brewers on intra-, etc.

    #141598
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    So we play 5 games the next 4 days and burn up what’s left of our rotation before Monday out of necessity. Tonights starter (KK) would be on 3 days rest Monday, so the brass is now trying to figure out if Martinez can throw Monday, if necessary. How you like them apples?

    The much preferred alternative is not playing Monday, but babying Reyes and Cabrera’s IP this series should be considered, in case they have to start two games Monday, or it’s KK on 3 days rest and Woodford?. The perfect storm.

    #141599
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Oh, good. A fellow standings wonk! Rather than copy your two scenarios, so cal, I will call them A and B.

    A. If the Cards win all 5 vs. MIL and SD is swept, StL would be 32-26 and SD 34-26. Assuming the Cubs win something this weekend, then you are right, this could force Monday action.

    But since we are already way out in low odds land by assuming two sweeps, let’s make it three sweeps, as you alluded to. If the Cubs are also swept, they would be 32-28. So the potential tie would be with StL for the division, with the Cards then at 32-26. However, because the Cards would own the second tiebreaker (better intradivision record), the Monday games would not be needed.

    B. The third tiebreaker is intradivision winning percentage for the season. In this scenario, the Cards would be 22-18, the Reds 21-19 and the Brewers 20-20. So, you are correct again. If all three teams finish 30-30 for second in the division, it would go to St. Louis.

    Good work!

    #141600
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The Cubs dropped their third straight and fifth in their last six, shut out 7-0 in Pittsburgh this afternoon.

    #141601
    AvatarPugsleyAddams
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    What a pitching matchup. Definite shades of Pete Vukovich meets Moose Haas. Burnes can be downright nasty….but so can Kim. Tough tough ballgame to call, but at the end of the night(and it might be literally at the end of the night), our Birds will get the job done.

    Two din-dins fit for kings. How else can one describe what the Esteemed Rat and the crafty Cardinal in France have on tap tonight at their supper tables. I’ll be feasting on spaghetti and meatballs, Italian garlic bread, feta pasta salad and rum cake loaded with enough rum to take Otis Campbell off his feet.

    #141604
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I myself made a pizza. I had some leftover cheese and pepperoni from making deep fried pizza balls for some friends who came over for football on Sunday, so I needed to make something.

    Anyone know why it seems the Cards lineup is always the last one posted when they play? The Brewers have had theirs posted for a couple of hours. Seems similar when it comes to the starters for games. Maybe all the players are playing cards to figure out who won’t have to go out there and hit tonight?! 😂

    #141606
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Wieters went 2 for 2 vs burns last MIL series, so Shildt is probably busy w/yadi right now

    #141607
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    heavy lefty, edman to LF, Carlson to CF, you know the rest. yadi wouldn’t sign off 🙂

    #141609
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Martinez to 10-day IL with oblique strain – MLBTR

    #141610
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    and rum cake loaded with enough rum to take Otis Campbell off his feet.

    I look for Pugs to be whooping it up while riding a cow down Main Street late this evening if the Cardinals get a win tonight.

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