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Read about The Cardinal Nation's no. 9 prospect for 2019, a CF who Stubby Clapp repeatedly compares to Harrison Bader. Lane Thomas led the entire #stlcards system in HR and RBI in 2018. Now on the 40-man, the 23 y/o should make his MLB debut in 2019. ($) https://t.co/mFXUHastbb pic.twitter.com/N0PNH0peb4
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 23, 2018
At number eight in The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards 2019 top 50 prospect countdown is an outfielder who has already completed two years of full-season ball as a teenager. Is Double-A next for Dylan Carlson? ($) https://t.co/PdSihV1fSh pic.twitter.com/1c0AzkvJbK
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 24, 2018
For me, Carlson is the mystery man among the top prospects in the organization.
If you look at his baseball card, nothing special. But he has the pedigree and has gone through his short pro career playing at levels that are meant for other (older) players, ones with a bit of pro experience. In that sense he is to be considered special, or at least, being handled different than other prospects.
So for me there’s been a question mark as to where he should fall into the p-list. We all want him to become something special. I use “special” when speaking of Carlson, many others do too. Starting him at PB again? That’s cold. Does he play OF over the three penciled in for Springfield? I believe so, I want to see how he fares at AA, see him hit more, see him use his 6’2″ 200lb frame to generate more power numbers. As mentioned above, that is something he’ll need to do.
At #8 he is in some fine company and ahead of others that are being noticed with breakout seasons. 2019 will be his age 20 season, that has to be something to be considered. When he hits a point that he becomes age appropriate for the level he’s playing at… watch out. I don’t want his breakout season to be ’19 but rather ’20 when he has some added confidence… I get the feeling that Carlson’s breakout will be something special.
Nyquis, who are the 3 you have penciled in for Springfield? I have Hurst/Carlson/Pinder with possibly Drake and Billings on the bench.
I think Capel is more likely to start in PB than Carlson. Of course they could both start in AA with Hurst in PB.
The seventh-ranked prospect in The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards 2019 top 50 countdown is Ryan Helsley, a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher whose shoulder injury probably kept him from his major league debut in 2018. ($) https://t.co/x8LNs9Y8mK pic.twitter.com/mCLWqNBa3y
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 25, 2018
Springfield OF candidates:
Pinder(22)
Mieses(23)
Drake(25)
Carlson(20)
Billings(23)
Capel(21)
Hurst(22)
Denton(21)AA appropriate age is 23/24. Obviously with the younger prospects advancing, there will be exceptions. Some decisions will need to be made at Jupiter. Drake is surely in danger of losing out here. With Mieses having a so-so season in ’18 and the same with Billings, the S-Cards possibly could open up with 3 or 4 of the younger guys: Pinder(check) Carlson, Capel, Hurst. My pencil would have Mieses-Pinder-Billings and Hurst to start the season. That would leave Capel-Carlson-Denton and either Toerner-Plummer-Davis as the 4th. With the DH being used at Hi-A, there may be a 5th OF used.
Hmmm… Ryan Helsley #8. I was fairly high on this guy two seasons ago. Naturally, his stock has fallen with the injuries. I tend to shy away from players that miss significant time on the DL for one ailment. Now that said, I think that at least 3 maybe 4 have passed him. Its good to see that other selectors feel that he is still a viable starter. I like Helsley but have a (?) in the back of my mind.
IMO, he will have to compete for a starting spot at Memphis… its not a given.
I understand everything you said about Helsley except for the last sentence. If he is healthy and is still being used as a starter, he will be in the Memphis rotation. Zero doubt in my mind about that.
IF his condition is solid… IF…. then I agree, with little doubt. AND I hope that is the case, but I still have that thing about his status to start off the season. Its become my “mo” lately. Poor bounce backs scare me.
Well, of course, if he is hurt, he won’t be starting or relieving anywhere. However, your point was that he will have to compete for a job in the Memphis rotation. I do not agree with that.
Even a healthy Helsley will have stiff competition, especially if Reyes will start out ’19 in that rotation along with Gant, Cabrera, Hudson, Gomber?, Meisner, Poncedeleon, Woodford, Kruczynski Warner plus possible surprise packages… Hauschild, Arauz and WPerez. Its a crowded field going to gate.
A healthy Helsley would be a front-runner but he’ll need to be very near 100%.
I can help you sort this out. First of all, Gant has no minor league options, so you can cross him off. Reyes likely won’t be ready for Memphis, but will instead open on the MLB DL and ramp up with a start or two at each level just like in 2018. Cabrera, Hudson, Gomber and PDL are all strong possibilities for the Memphis rotation, depending on what StL does. The other guys you mention are lower priority than Helsley. There’s your five, with Woodford next in line.
I just put down most of the starters in the program that will even be remotely considered. There are some heavies there. Its baseball…. things happen, ala Mikolas, Norris and Hicks.
Two points. 1) You (Brian) are fond of saying we should believe what Cardinal officials are saying. They have said he should be 100% by the start of Spring training though they are going to take it slow. They have also said they expect him ready for opening day but they are not sure what capacity. 2) Why do you feel Cabrera and Hesley will be prioritized for the AAA rotation of Poncedeleon?
Ok, that was one comment and one question.
CC:
1) It is not clear who you mean – Reyes or Helsley?
2) I did not say Cabrera or Helsley would be prioritized ahead of Ponce de Leon, if I am guessing correctly that “ahead” is the missing word from your post.
Please clarify. Thanks.
Sorry I wasn’t clear.
1. I was talking about Reyes
2. I inferred since you didn’t mention Poncedeleon that you thought the others were ahead of him but that was my bad as I missed the “PDL” reference.No problem. I now see I wasn’t clear about Ponce de Leon, either.
I avoid making firm assumptions about injury recovery, especially shoulders. In fact, I wrote about this specifically in today’s Helsley article. We know more about Reyes’ injury, which is a rare one. It is great he is on track this winter, but I will reserve judgement on both pitchers until spring training.
As I also mentioned the article, the sheer number of pitchers who will be vying for an MLB spot this spring is high. Unless there are a number of injuries, trades or releases, the Cards may have to get creative with the roster. Putting Reyes on the DL for a while could be an easy move to potentially save someone else.
But for discussion, let’s assume the most optimistic view, which is that Reyes opens among the 12-13 pitchers at St. Louis in whatever role. That just reinforces my point that he will not be in the Memphis rotation mix potentially blocking Helsley, which was the point of discussion here.
Coming in sixth in The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards 2019 top 50 prospect countdown is Carson Kelly’s replacement as the heir-apparent to catcher Yadier Molina. When will Andrew Knizner make his MLB debut? ($) https://t.co/Lwrws3BCbp pic.twitter.com/UZDED4VM1N
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 26, 2018
I told of these catching problems the day Molina signed his 3 year contract, another MAJOR FO blunder. We have already lost Kelly, and Knizner may not be far away from the same fate as Molina’s ego and free reign on all matters concerning catching in STL continues on.
My arguments were dismissed by some right here. Kelly must be so happy to leave Cardinal-land and Knizner must be contemplating his status with the organization, past,present and future.
I’ve never seen the Cardinal team being swayed by one man’s egotism until Molina began his “me only” posture. He felt emboldened by the extended contract and apparently has the FO running interference in front of his every whim. They’ll find a backup guy that Molina can dominate and speak down to.
The FO sabotaged Kelly’s career possibilities in STL. Knizner must be sensing the same treatment because even I can see the pitfalls of being a highly-prized catching prospect in this organization. Its a sad state of affairs.
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