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Yes, Urias can hit Double-A pitching and Mexican League pitching, which he has been doing for years, but he had a .291 OBP at Memphis at age 24. More work ahead.
You really have 7-8 Cardinals in your national top 100? Really? Urias, who you acknowledge has a ceiling of an MLB reserve, is among your top eight Cardinals, and therefore a borderline top 100 prospect nationally? Wow.
Thanks for the response, Brian.
But I don’t think I said that the ceiling for Ramon Urias was MLB reserve. What I said (or meant to say anyway) was that I thought his likeliest MLB contribution would specifically be at the level of Greg Garcia, circa 2015-17. Sorry if I misled you. The internet: where misunderstandings go to flourish.At any rate, Greg Garcia for those 3 years was worth 3.3 WAR at BPro, 2.7 at Fangraphs, and 3.1 at B-Ref. Not a ton of raw WAR of course, but that was accumulated just one full season’s worth of plate appearances, or a little more. That’s an excellent bench guy or borderline starter on a playoff team. I think that’s what he’ll probably be.
The ceiling for Urias on the other hand would be to maintain that level of 2.5-3.0 WAR performance over an entire season, for 3-5 years. In other words a nice solid Jon Jay/David Freese/Allen Craig level of starting major leaguer, someone who’ll potentially accrue 12-15 WAR in his career. Something of that nature. That level of reasonable potential indicates a top 100 type, or on the border.
Or to put it another way, Keston Hiura is a second baseman and consensus top prospect. fangraphs just gave him a grade 60 yesterday, and last year they gave out only 23 grades of 60 or higher. Hiura’s pro career as a whole gives him a fine Davenport Peak projection of .275/.322/.462.
Ramon Urias (mostly a 2B) has a Davenport Peak slash of .264/.336/.417, equivalent to .264/.322/.442. So Hiura is projected roughly half a win better on offense. But the thing of it is, per Davenport’s website Urias projects to be much the superior keystone defender.
So much so that their 2019 projections for MLB are 2.6 WAR per 600 PA’s for Urias, and barely 1 WAR for Hiura. And remember, I’m not personally arguing in any way, shape, or form that Urias is remotely as good a prospect as Hiura. (Even though Davenport’s computer model obviously has Urias distinctly better than Hiura.)
Nope. All I’m saying is that Urias is a borderline top 100. I am being extremely pessimistic, relative to Davenport’s projection for Ramon — a projection based on everything, Triple-A, Double-A, the Mexican League seasons.
Remember in school when they said “show your math”? There’s my math, good sir.
Here’s how I rank the top Redbird prospects, with (estimated) national rankings in parentheses. Oh, but before I do this, let’s briefly recap a few former Cardinal prospects who were never at any time on anyone’s top 100 list at BA, BPro, MLB.com, Keith Law, or Fangraphs. That would be Yadi Molina, Matt Carpenter, Lance Lynn, Dan Haren, Tommy Pham, Allen Craig, Jon Jay, Harrison Bader, David Freese, Jordan Hicks, Dakota Hudson (so far), and Paul DeJong. That’s top-of-my-head, so I apologize to anyone I’ve forgotten. In any case, Brian, you can see why a long time ago I ceased deferring to professional prospect “experts.” They are nearly valueless when it comes to Cardinal prospects. The track record for the experts stinks.
Alex Reyes (35)
Elehuris Montero (40)
Dakota Hudson (50)
Nolan Gorman (55)
Andrew Knizner (65)
Dylan Carlson (90)
Ramon Urias (100)
Malcom Nunez (100)For me the fun part is the articulating — or defending, if you prefer — of these rankings, and all other prospect rankings, Cardinals or otherwise. (Keston Hiura for me is top 40 for instance, not top 20.) So please feel free to inquire about any of the above, or any others who couldn’t crack the top 100 or thereabouts.
As always, you have good reasons for your views,Bob. Thank you for taking the time to share them. My quick reaction is that your view of Cardinals pitching in the pipeline is more pessimistic than my view – and I thought I was being tough. I would guess that a very high percentage of others would consider pitchers like Helsley and Cabrera superior prospects to a Urias. Conversely, your view of the offense seems rosy.
In a general sense, I suspect that if you went through the prospects in the other 29 systems at the depth in which you analyze Cardinals, you would find dozens more Uriases out there – overlooked gems (following your process). As a result, your highly-optimistic view of the Cardinals vs. other systems would be watered down to an overall level closer to the industry consensus.
Granted, some of the names would be different and that would be interesting. However, I am not suggesting you undertake such a large effort.
I know next to nothing about what is behind Davenport’s formulas and if they have been tuned, and most importantly, validated over time. How do we know if he would have done any better identifying Jon Jay, Freese and all those other national misses? By the way, it is not like most of those names became all-stars.
If the Cardinals really had seven or eight top 100 prospects, they would be in the top tier of systems in the game – and that feels too optimistic. The last few drafts have not been kind to the system, which was not great between Springfield and Johnson City this year – five clubs with only spots of top talent.
I get your disdain of other raters, but even the source you often cite as best – John Sickels – is not as optimistic about the Cardinals as you. I wonder if part of the issue is top-end talent. Many evaluators look for future stars, whereas the Cardinals always seem to have a high quantity of very good players. This is a point Sickels has made, as well.
P.S. FWIW, I watched Hiura play in the AFL and was extremely impressed. I think he could be Milwaukee’s second baseman for a long time, perhaps not starting until late 2019 or 2020. I have seen Urias play and I think he could become Greg Garcia. To the best of my recollection, Garcia was never in a national top 100, nor should he have been. I hope Urias does better than that and he could. Scouting and projecting is about informed guesses. There is no right or wrong until the players reach their summit.
Thanks for an always interesting discussion. We are only at no. 33, so hopefully, there will be more dialogue ahead.
At no. 32 on The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards top 50 prospect countdown for 2019 is Leandro Cedeño, a first baseman who added OF to his resume in 2018 while he hit for power and average in the Appy League at 19 – but was overshadowed by Nolan Gorman. ($) https://t.co/TWLFN2McVW pic.twitter.com/qQHVyh7uws
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 30, 2018
You’re welcome, Brian. It’s baseball. Try and STOP me from rambling on about baseball! (Helsey got hurt, and I don’t like Cabrera’s command. I’m fond of Reyes and Hudson — Alex Reyes hadn’t shown such superior streikezone control like he did in his rehab starts, since way back in his final month of Low-A ball, when he posted a 38/6 K/BB in 25 innings — and I think Angel Rondon looked real good when I saw him, still throwing 93/94 in the 6th inning. But you’re right, I don’t generally like the StL pitching right now. In terms of raw upside, the farmhand hitters are the best in memory. But more organizational balance would be better.)
“I suspect that if you went through the prospects in the other 29 systems at the depth in which you analyze Cardinals, you would find dozens more Uriases out there – overlooked gems (following your process).”
Depending on how one chooses to define “overlooked,” there are indeed quite a few out there — but the important point is that they are NOT distributed evenly across all organizations. Not by a long shot.
I know, because last winter I performed that very exercise, examining for the first time all position prospects grade C or better at John Sickels’ website. It was 949 batters. And I checked each one, their raw track records in terms of hitting and defense, and if available their Davenport computer model projections, and also KATOH when possible.
Some teams had many such gems, while other organizations (sorry, Marlins and Angels) were virtually bereft. By the way, according to Clay Davenport’s computer back then, Elehuris Montero already projected as an excellent hitter, a 3-win first baseman in his prime, if he played scratch defense at the position.
“To the best of my recollection, Garcia was never in a national top 100, nor should he have been. I hope Urias does better than that and he could. Scouting and projecting is about informed guesses. There is no right or wrong until the players reach their summit.”
Actually, that’s the funny thing about Greg Garcia. He’s been worth about 3-3.5 WAR for his career, which is coincidentally precisely how productive the average grade 50 position prospect has been over his first 6 or 7 MLB seasons, according to the very recent Craig Edwards Fangraphs study. (A grade 50 is someone ranked anywhere between 50th and 150th or so, per Fangraphs. So the average grade 50 would thus be ranked as a borderline top 100. So it would appear that Greg should have been ranked as a borderline top 100 after all. Maybe right after his excellent AA season, when at age 22 he posted a .408 on base percentage and a 137 wRC+)
Here’s a link to the Edwards study that contains the analysis: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/
“Bob, you dont see O’Neill has top 100?”
Fair question, CC. I was using the MLB rookie guidelines, for both O’Neill and Carson Kelly. That’s why neither appeared on my list.
Here are the Davenport 6-year mean MLB projections (per 600 plate appearances) for Tyler O’Neill, plus three of the most well-known young prospects:
2019 O’Neill 3.6 WAR, Victor Robles 3.4, Vlad Guerrero Jr. 3.1, Eloy Jimenez 2.8
2020 O’Neill 3.9, Robles 3.8, Vlad 3.3, Eloy 3.1
2021 O’Neill 4.0, Robles 4.0, Vlad 3.7, Eloy 3.3
2022 Robles 4.2, Vlad 3.9, O’Neill 3.7, Eloy 3.5
2023 Robles 4.4, Vlad 4.2, O’Neill 3.7, Eloy 3.6
2024 Vlad 4.6, Robles 3.8, Eloy 3.8, O’Neill 3.2
You can see why I don’t want to wait, when it comes to O’Neill. The computer says play him right now. While Davenport’s algorithms obviously have a crush on Tiny Kingman, just like every other prospect ranker I would not consider O’Neill to be at the same level as the other three.
But unlike the other sources, I do consider him fairly close, CC. I would have ranked Tyler somewhere in the 20-25 range probably. Definitely the #1 Cardinal prospect if eligible. His career track record is quite comparable to Eloy, a consensus top 5 prospect, once you include O’Neill’s defense & baserunning advantages. (For me Eloy is top 10, not top 5.)
It’s really a fascinating foursome. Robles has the best balance of skills, but has been hurt, and appears to lack anything even approaching the power potential of the other three. Vlad is a crazy-talented hitter, maybe another Miguel Cabrera. But he also has Cabrera’s age 35 physique. At age 19. And Eloy is a big stick, might be a Triple Crown threat some day. But also might be genuinely, truly bad in the outfield, a liability so severe that he must be moved from even a corner slot by age 25. O’Neill could be Canadian Khris Davis, but with better baserunning and glovework.
It is a big year for Capel. After a very marginal 2018 playing in spacious ballparks to 2019 where he likely will be playing in Springfield. Will we see him revert back to 2017 where he hit 22 homers?
Is his upside really power? He is not a big guy. Given his bunting and running ability, he should have done much better in those larger parks than he did.
FREE article. The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards top 50 prospect countdown for 2019 continues to no. 30 with the first player drafted in 2017 to reach Triple-A Memphis, a big, strapping right-handed reliever acquired from Seattle, Seth Elledge. https://t.co/9WDIICuGBY pic.twitter.com/NA0Zma3pqZ
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 2, 2018
I would assume the Cardinals have limited Cabrera’s winter league innings, but he has been dynamite in relief so far. Barring a hot spring, I would hope he gets a chance to stay a starter.
I agree with you, C27. That is what I heard from one source, but the proof will be in the actions in the spring. A lot may depend on which veteran lefties they bring in and how good they perform – along with Cecil and Shreve. The more good options they have, the less likely they will be tempted to rush Cabrera up as a reliever.
When Elledge was in Springfield, his “deceptive” delivery was so slow runners seem to run at will. This will be something to watch.
“I would assume the Cardinals have limited Cabrera’s winter league innings, but he has been dynamite in relief so far.”
I agree, C-27, about keeping a starter a starter when possible. And as a Genesis Cabrera skeptic, my curiosity is nevertheless piqued — but I only see a couple of AA/AAA relief appearances, other than maybe postseason. Did you mean that he’s been mowing them down out of the bullpen in winter ball? Thanks for any insights or stats!
Also, and this comment is directed toward no one in particular, I want to belatedly mention a couple of facts about prospect #32 from a few days back, Leandro Cedeno.
In 2018 there were 2,172 minor leaguers with at least 200 plate appearances. Just 25 of them posted an OPS over 1.000, and only 8 of those batters were NOT old for their leagues. One of those 8 was Leandro Cedeno, my #15 Cardinal prospect, and roughly the 250th best prospect in the game, for me.
Fangraphs disagrees. They considering Cedeno entirely irrelevant, giving him no grade at all, which leaves him somewhere outside of their top 1,000 or so prospects. They do list a handful of the ungraded Cardinal farmhands, like Terry Fuller and Patrick Wisdom and Johan Mieses, as “power-only profiles.” But they inexplicably lump Cedeno in with those guys, despite Leandro’s exceptional batting line this year of .336/.419/.592.
You can say that a .336 hitter is “power-only” if you want. It makes you look stupid, but you can say it. But if you wish to be taken seriously as a prospect evaluator, I believe you absolutely DO need to provide some rationale. The thing is, they have zero comments about Cedeno in their Cardinal overview. Nada. A teenager with a 1.000 OPS, and nothing to say. (I count 17 other similar examples of weirdness from Fangraphs re Redbird prospects. It would get pretty tedious to list them all, but in the future I’ll mention some of them as the situation calls for.)
The 29th-ranked prospect in The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards 2019 top 50 countdown is a decorated left-hander from Texas Tech who is coming back from Tommy John surgery – Steven Gingery. ($) https://t.co/DnLIyrs0Bn pic.twitter.com/rZnzSvOaTW
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 3, 2018
At no. 28 in The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards 2019 top 50 countdown is a 40-man roster infielder who made a brief St. Louis debut in September. With time running out, when will Edmundo Sosa return and how long will he remain? ($) https://t.co/xApANNR4MG pic.twitter.com/PGvojDAK0K
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 4, 2018
Placing 27th in The Cardinal Nation’s 2019 top 50 prospect countdown is 40-man roster second baseman Max Schrock, who is exposed in the Rule 5 draft after his first season in the #stlcards system, his toughest as a professional. ($) https://t.co/UsMkNYTIHy pic.twitter.com/hosjctOPWc
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 5, 2018
This is a super meh stretch of players. After a nice stretch of potential in the 30s, it’s been less than great save for Gingery since Leandro Cedeno. Just not a lot to say about guys like Sosa and Schrock who are AAAA guys at best.
Still, I enjoy the write-ups and look forward to seeing what’s to come!
Over the last year or two when doing my rankings, I find I am pretty excited and confident well into the teens, but from there, it is much less clear, with a mix of guys on the way down and others who may or may not make their way up later.
Still, they each get their own day in the sun. Today, it is Schrock, though as you saw, most of my words are about the various challenges facing him.
“Just not a lot to say about guys like Sosa and Schrock who are AAAA guys at best.”
Yeah, I share your Schrock pessimism, Mr. Lankford. For me, Max had probably the most disappointing 2018 season of all Redbird minor league position players.
Sosa though, I still like just fine as a future utility guy. At age 22 he had better health than in recent years, and it showed at the plate. In 450 AB’s split pretty evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .270 with 30 doubles and 12 homers, both career highs. Edmundo had some weird H/R splits this year. But if we want to be optimistic, check out his road numbers in AAA:
30 games, .314/.361/.533, and an acceptable 8/20 BB/K. (Low walk rates have been his Achilles heel as a pro, in addition to injuries.) He doesn’t turn 23 until early March, so obviously he was young for the PCL.
I have him 12th in the StL farm system, and roughly 220th overall. Like Arozarena & Urias & Lane Thomas, Sosa’s 2019 Memphis season should tell us a great deal about his future.
The 26th-ranked prospect in The Cardinal Nation’s 2019 top 50 countdown was drafted in 2017 and moved up to Double-A in his first full season. However, Evan Mendoza plays a position, 3B, which has become quite crowded in #stlcards prospect ranks. ($) https://t.co/s58LJh4kvx pic.twitter.com/WrhF4Qobmw
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 6, 2018
I think Mendozas starting point in 2019 will be dependent upon if Gyrko is traded. I can see Carpenter at third, with Gyrko or Wisdom coming in for late game defense.
And as far as Montero goes I say start him at Springfield, and if he struggles send him back down. We could see his power increase in those friendly Texas League parks. I think if given a month or more, he will figure things out. I wonder if Montero is on top 100 lists. If not, he has to be on the cusp of it.I dunno, C27. Even if Wisdom is in StL, which I do not give high odds to, there are going to be a lot of infielders at Memphis looking for at-bats who are higher priority than Mendoza.
Here is my five-man StL bench (assuming Fowler is RF):
Backup C to be signed
Munoz
Gyorko/Martinez
O’Neill
LHH OF to be signedIf Gyorko and Martinez both stay, O’Neill could get pushed down to Memphis.
If instead they decide to go with eight relievers, which they have done before, that bench is cut down to four. I don’t see Wisdom as a primary contender. He would need both trade and injury help, in my December 6 assessment.
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