What’s it gonna take to fix the Cardinals

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  • #242668
    gscottar
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    Paid - Annual

    As Brian mentioned we really have no idea what the Cardinals budget is. We have some idea on their expenses but we don’t know the total expenses. Cot’s lists the 40 man payroll and the CBT payroll but those numbers don’t include the salaries for coaches, executives, administrative staff, minor league expenses, etc….

    And we don’t know what the revenue for the team is either. We know that their tv revenue is not on par with the huge markets of NY, LA, Chicago, Philly, Boston, etc… but the Cardinals do rather well with their regional tv ratings although the future of Bally’s is still up in the air. As for ticket revenue we know that some of the tickets have been discounted so that eats into profits. The one thing we know for sure is that the Cardinals are at the elite level in attendance. If you take an average of the last 10 years the attendance leaders are:

    1. Dodgers
    2. Cardinals
    3. Yankees
    4. Cubs
    5. Angels
    6. Giants
    7. Red Sox
    8. Rockies
    9. Brewers
    10. Braves

    https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/mlb_attendance/

    I don’t think any team or organization should rely on deficit spending or run in the red. Not at all. But we really don’t know what the break even point is for the Cardinals. Their current 40 man payroll is $176M. Is break even $200M? 250M? 300M? Who knows?

    There are currently eight teams projected to be over the CBT line in 2024 and I doubt any of them declare bankruptcy. By the way, who came up with the CBT thresholds? I know it wasn’t the players because they don’t want a CBT. I don’t think it was some outside forensic accounting team either. I think it was the owners and the commissioner’s office. They set some arbitrary number that the general public really has no idea how relevant it is.

    #242674
    jj-cf-stl
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    Paid - Annual

    When the topic is the budget “ceiling”, I refer to the CBT totals. We are projected at 211.6mil, 25.4mil under the tax threshold.

    #242681
    Euro Dandy
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    Free

    By the way, who came up with the CBT thresholds? <snip> I think it was the owners and the commissioner’s office.

    No. It’s collectively bargained.

    #242708
    gscottar
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    Paid - Annual

    When the topic is the budget “ceiling”, I refer to the CBT totals. We are projected at 211.6mil, 25.4mil under the tax threshold.

    I use the 40 man payroll because that it is what is acutally paid out during that particular year, along with benefits. Sonny Gray’s CBT number is $25M but the Cardinals are only paying him $10M in 2024. IMO the CBT payroll is only relevant if you go over the line, which the Cardinals won’t.

    #242709
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    No. It’s collectively bargained.

    Technically it is but do the players have access to the owner’s books? If they do that is news to me.

    #242712
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I think the Union is given some basic financial information, but maybe more at the aggregate MLB level.

    FWIW, I agree the CBT number has only one real use and IMO, it isn’t the best way to compare teams.

    It seems like in this discussion, “ceiling” referred to how much the Cards could spend and still be profitable by their measure, whatever it is.

    Back a few years ago, Girsch eloquently said their “puke point” was the most they’d pay for a player. Not quite the same, but it seems to fit… I suspect they’ve been holding their lunch down for a number of years…

    #242742
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    And we haven’t heard from Girsch again. 🙂

    #248764
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    It seems like 20 games into the season is a good time to revisit this topic from last winter. First, we should take stock of the bottom line.

    2023: 8-12, Runs Scored 93, Runs allowed 98. differential -5. 4.0 Games out
    2024: 9-11, Runs scored 71, Runs allowed 81. differential -10. 6.0 Games out

    Milwaukee got off to a little better start last year which accounts for us being 4 out rather than 6. Basically, run prevention is a lot better and run production is a lot worse, with the differential going the wrong way.

    So, given the present situation, what’s it gonna take to fix the Cardinals?

    #248766
    KeepComingBack
    Participant

    Free

    Right now you effectively have 4 pitchers hitting in a league that uses the dh. That’s bad.

    Walker
    Gorman
    Goldschmidt
    Scott

    All automatic outs.

    What to do? You can’t sit them all. For the time being Herrera and Burleson have to be in the lineup. Scott should go back to aaa.

    Shuffle the other 3 in and out until they start hitting some. At this point something needs to be tried.

    #248774
    ZTR
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    I think you absolutely cannot start Scott or Siani no matter what that means in the outfield for now.

    The team clearly misread the team leaves with Edman’s injury time table and Carlson’s injury was just bad luck.

    Nootbar has to go to CF – for now.

    We simply don’t have the bodies to sit Goldschmidt, Gorman, and Walker all at the same time.

    Having both Carpenter and Crawford on the bench is debilitating from a flexibility standpoint.

    I guess you try an outfield of Donovan, Nootbar, and Burleson (?) with Herrera or Contreras at DH and the other catching.

    Winn at short, Arenado at third, that leaves you with Gorman at 2nd and Goldschmidt at first but good Lord move them down in the lineup.

    That removes Scott / Siani and Walker from the lineup and would seem to increase the chances to score runs…

    Would it be worth sticking Crawford at 2nd? Has he ever played that position at the ML level? Can he at least hit his weight?

    #248807
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Excellent points by KCB and ZTR. When half of your lineup basically has no chance of getting on base it is hard to win games. The deck definitely needs to be shuffled.

    #248813
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    ZTR:
    The team clearly misread the team leaves with Edman’s injury time table and Carlson’s injury was just bad luck.

    I don’t think that they misread them…. it was false info that they released. Its nearly every time. I never believe what they report on injuries. Rarely does a player come at the reported date.

    #248820
    BrockLou
    Participant

    Free

    Is anbody else worried about Goldy? His career average OPS is .903, and last year he was at .810, a career low for a full season.

    His current OPS is .483, 420 OPS points below his career average. If that wasn’t bad enough, almost 3/4 of that shortfall is slugging decline. His on base percentaqge is low, due to low batting average, but he is drawing a few walks, so that helps.

    Even worse, he’s striking out 2.5 times for every walk. His career average is only 1.7 SO/
    BB. If he were striking out a lot, in order to hit more extra base hits, that would partially explain things. But he has only one extra base his in 19 games.

    #248854
    gscottar
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    Paid - Annual

    Is anbody else worried about Goldy?

    I am guessing that you haven’t read too many threads here lately or you wouldn’t have to ask that question…lol

    About 95% of the posters here think his career is over.

    #248859
    Oliver
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    Free

    Well I never said his career was over. I did say he was showing signs of age related decline. I did comment on his bad spring. I also have been a huge proponent of letting him go after this season.

    #248868
    ZTR
    Participant

    Free

    Goldschmidt should have been traded last year at the break or during the off season when he still had some value. Now? What could you even get for him?

    #248869
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Hold on a sec. I get being angry at the FO for any number of things but no one misrepresented Edman’s injury. He has had about 4 setbacks. I heard Edman directly say in mid January at WWU that he would be ready for opening day.

    #248870
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Goldschmidt should have been traded last year at the break or during the off season when he still had some value. Now? What could you even get for him?

    As of today probably a AA backup infielder.

    #248871
    Shady
    Participant

    Free

    The Cardinals need to make Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gorman and Mikolas available in trade offers. There are replacements on the team now, and on the way. They aren’t going anywhere this season, again. Make some moves for the future.

    #248872
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    No trade protection is real.

    #248874
    RBK
    Participant

    Hold on a sec. I get being angry at the FO for any number of things but no one misrepresented Edman’s injury. He has had about 4 setbacks. I heard Edman directly say in mid January at WWU that he would be ready for opening day.

    Agreed. The FO doesn’t have unlimited discretion to low-ball expectations on a player’s recovery from an injury whose timeline is hard to predict. They pretty much have to publicly disclose something close to their best-guess and roll with whatever happens, which in this case hasn’t been what I’m sure they hoped.

    #248875
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The Cardinals need to make Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gorman and Mikolas available in trade offers. There are replacements on the way.

    A guy making $25M hitting .173
    A guy making $32M who is a singles hitter.
    A guy making league minimum but might lead the league in K’s.
    A guy making $17M with an ERA of 6.49

    I wouldn’t expect a big return.

    #248876
    Shady
    Participant

    Free

    Brian, I get that. But wouldn’t some aging players be intersted in waiving that to go to a contender? If they have never been to a serious contender to win the World Series. Trading Gorman for an TOR starter would be bold. But with the fine 2B replacements. It’s seems feasible.

    #248878
    RBK
    Participant

    No trade protection is real.

    Yes, as is surplus/trade value, which is pretty close to (if not at) an all-time low for all of those names.
    Perfect time to sell . . .

    #248879
    BrockLou
    Participant

    Free

    Gscottar-I’ve seen a lot of comments lamenting Goldy’s slow start including mine. But I think it is starting to change. Now, like you say, we are thinking, ‘is his career as a top tier, or even second tier slugger over’?

    Imagine if they had inked an extension in the off season!

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