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I just hope Mikolas can stay healthy, give 30 starts, be .500. I hope he’s not better than the #4 and even better #5 but we all know he’ll be the #3.
This leads me to see 2024 as about .500, 83 – 78 wins.
I reserve the right to revise that prediction based on what the FO does or doesn’t do this off-season.
I haven’t posted in awhile, been lurking around, and normally by now I’ve posted my “ideal” off-season by now but my ideal would be sign Nola and Gray and trade for Glasnow. Have a rotation of Nola, Glasnow, Gray, Mikolas, Thompson. But that’s a LOT of money on SP and think they are going to have to clear money to spend money and I don’t know where they do it.
Who takes Contreras? But if they trade Contreras then Herrera is catcher, which I’d prefer his defense a ton over Contreras even though I’m not in love with Herrera defensively either. But Herrera is by far the best chip they have to land Glasnow.
Who takes Matz? They can non-tender Hudson and Woodford and save a little money, or find takes for them for practically nothing in return. But signing SP or trading for SP is going to take clearing out Matz contract.
So, my “ideal” solution isn’t real clear to how I want to get there yet but,
Wainwright retired, VerHagen free agent.
Trade: O’Neill, Edman, Baker, Gomez, Herrera, Matz, Hudson?, Woodford?, Naughton
DFA: Barnes, Naile, Rodriguez
Acquire: Glasnow (TB), Puk (Mia)
Sign: Nola, Gray, Duvall1. Donovan DH (L)
2. Nootbaar LF (L)
3. Goldschmidt 1B (R)
4. Arenado 3B (R)
5. Gorman 2B (L)
6. Contreras C (R)
7. Walker RF (R)
8. Carlson CF (S)
9. Winn SS (R)Kennedy/Prieto/Saggese- IF, Burleson 1B/LF (L), Duvall OF (R), Kinzner C (R)
Go cheap on back up IF because it’s basically Donovan, but he’ll start the season as DH and then platoon wherever letting that guy DH when he’s healthy and in the field.
Nola, Glasnow, Gray, Mikolas, Thompson
Kloffenstein/Liberatore/Graceffo/?, Pallante, Romero (L), ???, Gallegos, Puk (L), ???, Helsley
40 Man (or is it “person” now) depth:
1B/LF- Yepez, OF- Siani, P- Rom (L), RP- King (L), P- Thomas (L), SP- RobersseI don’t expect it to happen because they won’t spend that kind of money and I’m sure Mo won’t trade O’Neill because he thinks he’s the next Adolis and he likes his muscles.
Signing both Nola and Gray means losing two draft picks. I just don’t think that is wise in a year we will have our highest drafting position in a long time.
I like the Duvall signing though.
Most clubs will now just wait on trading until the 17th to see if O’Neill or Hudson have become free agents due to STL non-tendering them. We’ll know shortly.
If they make it to the tender deadline untraded, reclaim those funds and move on.
The biggest flaw I see in tendering O’Neill and Hudson, and still being intent on trading them, is the option of just using their funds ($) on what you would trade them for this winter.
Add to the offseason cash, avoid the trade work/risk (for a minimal return) and prepare to add salary big.
JJ, they could still use that money by releasing them before they sign a contract. The non-tender deadline isn’t a contract signing.
Stuff the Rangers have that we don’t. Strong front of rotation. Reliable pen. Manager who brings something. Cleanup hitter who doesn’t choke in post season. There’s your list Mo.
They also have a PBO who played the game and probably sees the benefits in a blend of computers and common sense instead of all computers. And an owner willing to spend big when he had to.
The Padres financial situation might be something to keep an eye on, they had to take out a $50 million loan to cover payroll in September 2023 according to the Athletic.
They also sold 3.3 million tickets this year to games
“MLB teams commonly tap into lines of credit to pay their bills, prompting some officials in the sport to suggest any concern should be tempered because the Padres were ultimately creditworthy enough to draw the loan. But other officials briefed on the team’s finances who were not authorized to speak publicly viewed the Padres’ situation as worrisome.”
https://theathletic.com/5021659/2023/11/01/padres-payroll-loan/
FA Eovaldi was signed last winter for 2/34mil, and TEX traded for Monty at the deadline.
Quick impact to a rotation can happen.
The Padres financial situation might be something to keep an eye on, they had to take out a $50 million loan to cover payroll in September 2023 according to the Athletic.
They are going to need to scale their payroll back. I would imagine Soto will be available by trade and maybe others.
I guess if their payroll had been $200M instead of $250M they would have broken even. That’s with 3.3 million attendance in a mid market. We don’t know what the Cardinals break even is, but I am really sure BDW and his partners are not interested in breaking even.
Cards667, I love all of it and wish it all would happen! We would run away with the division with that group! It’s nice to dream! Ain’t gonna happen but man it sounds great!
I’d say that with just a reasonable degree of decent SP’ing from a 5 man and anything remotely resembling a reliable BP that the Cardinals could feature a winning ballclub that could possibly qualify for post-season play with the line-up posted by Cards667, but not with the current manager in place. I’m entirely convinced that they won’t win anything with this guy no matter who they place on the field. In my view, he’s degenerated from being a horrible manager to something that I would term a genuine curse. It wouldn’t at all surprise me that if he’s still the field manager of this ballclub after the first 45 to 50 games of the ’24 regular season that the Cardinal’s W/L record will be substantially worse than it was at that same juncture of the ’23 season. He’s just plain way worse than bad.
I don’t put the fault on Marmol because I think he correctly fills the role of manager as defined by Mo’s system. Look at what happened with Shldt and look at Albert and Maddux taking the exit ramp. It suggests there is no role for meaningful coaching input. They are just supposed to read the script and follow it. No ad libbing. No creative input. No calling an audible based upon what you see when you come up to the line. Who is going to be interested in that gig? That is who Mo has to choose from if he wants to bring someone in.
Yadi could flip that culture, but the puppet trend seems to be what BillyMo wants.
Pudge and Yadi manage a game on a different level.Yes, and it seems implausible that such a dynamic would exist only as to the major league coaching staff. It seems more likely that would be the last place. I think it is the modus operandi in all facets top to bottom. It is why I think spending some money this winter just kicks the can down the road. Nothing good can happen until BDW understands he’s been sold a handful of magic beans.
I agree that Yadi could help change the sterile algorithm culture that permeates the organization now but I don’t know if Mo will have the gumption to hire him.
COT’s has their arbitration estimates up, so it’s math time folks…..
$176.5M – 2023 payroll
5% – Increase in payroll (that’s beyond reasonable)
$185.3M – Reasonable 2024 payroll– $150.9M – 2024 Year end “Projected Payroll” per COTS
+5.8M – I’m not paying Tyler O’neill that
+3.65 – I’m not paying Hudson that
+1.85 – I love Knizner, but Herrera who is factored, trade Kniz, should be plenty of takers
+1 – Woodford traded for something I’d think=$46.7M to work with, no where near what I expected that number to be.
=$46.7M to work with, no where near what I expected that number to be.
The bronze busts are both post prime and replaceable with in house min wage guys. Not that they will. But they could.
So double that.
$90 Million.
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